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EMARKETER

UK Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Digital Growth Slows Amid Weak Confidence and Plateauing Penetration

Report by Carina Perkins  |  Jul 28, 2025

Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q2 2025

Forecasts and Insights for US Total Retail, Ecommerce, Holiday, Amazon, Grocery, Apparel, and Worldwide Sales

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
UK retail sales remain subdued amid a volatile economy
Ecommerce sales growth is slowing as the market reaches maturity
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Ecommerce growth is slowing as the market matures, but gains will come from mobile commerce, Gen Z buyers, and high-performing categories.
Topics
Retail Sales
Ecommerce Sales
Consumer Behavior
United Kingdom
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
UK retail sales remain subdued amid a volatile economy
Ecommerce sales growth is slowing as the market reaches maturity
Sources
Media Gallery

UK retail sales will grow modestly in 2025 amid persistent economic uncertainty and cautious consumer sentiment. Ecommerce growth is slowing as the market matures, and online penetration has plateaued. But gains will come from mobile commerce (mcommerce), Gen Z buyers, and high-performing categories like tech and beauty, while multichannel retailers are narrowing the gap with Amazon.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for UK retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Key Stat: UK ecommerce sales growth will slow to 3.6% in 2025 before accelerating slightly in 2026.

UK Ecommerce Sales Growth Is Slowing as Discretionary Spend Remains Under Pressure, (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2024-2029 (redacted))
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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. UK retail sales remain subdued amid a volatile economy
  1. Ecommerce sales growth is slowing as the market reaches maturity
  2. Sources
  1. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

UK Ecommerce Sales Growth Is Slowing as Discretionary Spend Remains Under Pressure, (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2024-2029 (redacted))UK Retail Sales Growth Will Be Slow but Steady Over the Next Five Years , (billions in UK retail sales and % change, 2024-2029)
UK Ecommerce Sales Growth Is Slowing as Discretionary Spend Remains Under Pressure, (billions in UK retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2024-2029)Nearly 60% of UK Ecommerce Sales Take Place on a Mobile Device—But Penetration Has Plateaued , (billions in UK retail mcommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales, 2024-2029)
Smartphones Account for the Majority of UK Mcommerce Sales, and Continue to Gain ShareAs Gen Z Comes of Age, Almost 95% Will Be Digital Buyers in 2029
Online Spend Per Buyer Will Slow as Consumer Caution Pervades in 2025, but Rebound With Stronger Growth in 2026Demand for Consumer Electronics and Beauty Is Driving Double-Digit Gains in Those Categories
Consumer Electronics and Health and Beauty Will See the Biggest Penetration GainsAmazon Will Lag Several of the UK's Leading Retailers on Ecommerce Growth in 2025
Amazon Will Account for Over a Third of Incremental UK Ecommerce Growth

authors

Carina Perkins

Contributors

Franco Bernasconi
Analyst
Paul Briggs
Principal Analyst
Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Diego Dell’Orco
Nikolai Dineros
Donte Gibson
Senior Charts Editor
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor
Emman Velasco
Chart Editor
Ali Young
Senior Copy Editor and Manager of Content Operations
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