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EMARKETER

US Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Retail Braces for the Impact of Tariff Turbulence

Report by Sky Canaves  |  Jun 20, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
US retail sales will decelerate sharply in a volatile economic climate
Ecommerce remains highly exposed to tariff risks
Digital shopper and buyer penetration rates approach their natural limits
Incumbent retail giants will consolidate gains amid the upheaval
Essential goods categories will make the biggest online gains
Recommendations for brands and retailers
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.
Topics
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Retail Sales
Mcommerce
United States
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
US retail sales will decelerate sharply in a volatile economic climate
Ecommerce remains highly exposed to tariff risks
Digital shopper and buyer penetration rates approach their natural limits
Incumbent retail giants will consolidate gains amid the upheaval
Essential goods categories will make the biggest online gains
Recommendations for brands and retailers
Sources
Media Gallery

The US retail industry has been in the crosshairs of volatile tariff policies that threaten price increases across a broad swath of consumer goods. Ecommerce sales growth will slow markedly in 2025 as the industry grapples with uncertainty. But the longer-term outlook will bring opportunities for growth in key channels and categories, and the growth will be from Gen Z buyers.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for US retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Ecommerce Sales Will Grow Modestly in 2025 Under the Moderate Tariff Scenario
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Key Stat: Under the moderate tariffs scenario, US ecommerce sales will grow by 5.0% in 2025, compared with our previous forecast of 7.9% growth.

This report can help you: develop commerce strategy and benchmark commerce performance (retailers and brands)

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

14charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. US retail sales will decelerate sharply in a volatile economic climate
  3. Ecommerce remains highly exposed to tariff risks
  1. Digital shopper and buyer penetration rates approach their natural limits
  2. Incumbent retail giants will consolidate gains amid the upheaval
  3. Essential goods categories will make the biggest online gains
  1. Recommendations for brands and retailers
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Ecommerce Sales Will Grow Modestly in 2025 Under the Moderate Tariff ScenarioIn the Moderate Tariff Scenario, Retail Growth Will Fall to Nearly Half of Our Previous Estimates
Our Revised Forecast Shows a Nearly $100 Billion Reduction in Ecommerce Sales in 2029Ecommerce Will Get Back to Its Previous Growth Trajectory in 2027 Following a 2-Year Slowdown (trillions in US retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2023-2029)
Mcommerce Will Account for More Than Half of Ecommerce Sales in 2028 (billions in US retail mcommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales, 2024-2029)As Gen Z Ages Up, More Than 90% Will Be Digital Buyers in 2029
Average Digital Sales Per Buyer Will Increase by More Than 27% Over the Next Five YearsAmazon, Temu, and Walmart Will Seize 61% of Ecommerce Growth Between 2025 and 2027
Even With Slower Growth, Amazon Will Keep Gaining Share of US Ecommerce (billions in US Amazon retail ecommerce sales, % change, and % of total retail ecommerce sales, 2023-2027)Amazon Is Gaining Category Share With Faster Growth in Nearly Every Major Segment 
Despite Tariff Challenges, Temu's Medium-Term Growth Prospects Remain Relatively StrongTariffs and Changing Consumption Patterns Will Have Uneven Impacts on Key Retailers
Under the Moderate Tariff Scenario, Only Essential Categories Will Outperform in Online Sales GrowthFive Key Categories Will Mark the Highest Growth in Ecommerce Penetration

authors

Sky Canaves

Contributors

Ethan Cramer-Flood
Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Madan Kumar
Copy Editor
Brian Lau
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Cindy Liu
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Emma Noyes
Graphic Designer, Data Visualization
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor
Emman Velasco
Chart Editor
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