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EMARKETER

Worldwide Retail and Ecommerce Forecast 2025 Midyear Edition

Trade Hostilities Cast a Shadow, but the Outlook Holds Steady

Report by Ethan Cramer-Flood  |  Sep 4, 2025
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Geopolitical tensions will challenge but not derail retail sales growth
The ecommerce forecast has improved, thanks to China and Latin America
Media Gallery
About This Report
The outlook for worldwide retail sales in 2025 is slightly down from what we expected in Q1, but worst-case scenarios now seem unlikely. For ecommerce, the news is somewhat positive.
Topics
Retail Sales
Ecommerce Sales
Worldwide
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Geopolitical tensions will challenge but not derail retail sales growth
The ecommerce forecast has improved, thanks to China and Latin America
Media Gallery

US-led trade hostilities in the spring and summer of 2025 created uncertainty around our Q1 worldwide retail and ecommerce sales forecasts. However, with worst-case trade war scenarios largely avoided, our original projections mostly look spot on. Retail sales will be slightly worse than we had estimated, but ecommerce will be slightly better.

Key Question: What is the updated outlook for worldwide, regional, and country-by-country retail and ecommerce sales in 2025 and beyond?

Key Stat: In 2025, retail sales will increase 1.5% in the US, 3.0% in Western Europe, and 3.8% in China. Such similar results among the three megamarkets were rare in previous decades, but they’ll be commonplace going forward.

Retail Growth Trends in the US, China, and Western Europe Have Converged
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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Geopolitical tensions will challenge but not derail retail sales growth
  1. The ecommerce forecast has improved, thanks to China and Latin America
  2. Media Gallery

    Charts in This Report

    Retail Growth Trends in the US, China, and Western Europe Have ConvergedOver 60% of 2025's Worldwide Retail Sales Will Happen in the US, China, and Western Europe (% of worldwide retail ecommerce sales for select countries/regions, 2025)
    Retail Growth Trends in the US, China, and Western Europe Have ConvergedChina Is Once Again Gaining on the US in Share of Worldwide Retail Sales, After Stumbling During the Pandemic
    Worldwide Ecommerce Sales Growth Will Remain Steady Thanks to Stabilization in China (trillions in retail ecommerce sales worldwide, % change, and % of total retail sales, 2023-2029)Ecommerce Sales Are Still Growing Faster Than Brick-and-Mortar Sales, but Not by a Lot
    Only a Few of the World's Largest Markets Will Achieve Standout Sales Growth in 2025 (% change in retail ecommerce and total retail sales in the largest markets worldwide, 2025)The Number of Countries With $100 Billion in Ecommerce Sales Will Grow to 10 by 2028

    authors

    Ethan Cramer-Flood

    Contributors

    Franco Bernasconi
    Analyst
    Sky Canaves
    Principal Analyst
    Suzy Davidkhanian
    VP, Content
    Diego Dell’Orco
    Penelope Lin
    Director, Data Visualization
    Cindy Liu
    Senior Forecasting Analyst
    Natalia Ramirez
    Chuck Rawlings
    Senior Researcher
    Emman Velasco
    Chart Editor
    Julia Woolever
    Ali Young
    Senior Copy Editor and Manager of Content Operations
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