Last November, our analysts made some predictions about how the retail category would fare in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to check back in on what has (or hasn’t) happened. "We're seeing many of our predicted trends playing out, though not always in the ways we anticipated," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of the "Behind the Numbers" podcast. "The retail landscape is evolving rapidly, with some developments accelerating faster than expected while others face unexpected headwinds."
Criteo is modernizing retail media by launching a global auction-based ad platform and integrating with Mirakl to enable self-serve advertising for over 100,000 third-party sellers. This dual move addresses two persistent challenges: outdated fixed-price ad systems used by most retailers, and untapped ad spend from marketplace sellers. The auction system gives advertisers more control and performance insights, while Mirakl opens up a scalable, automated path for small sellers. Criteo also brings standardized attribution and reporting across retail partners—fixing transparency gaps. These changes position Criteo as a full-spectrum solution for brands, retailers, and sellers looking to compete in a fast-evolving market.
Holiday shoppers in 2025 aren’t cutting back—they’re prioritizing. According to new research from Inmar Intelligence, 82% of shoppers plan to cut back on everyday essentials to make room for gifts and experiences.
The news: More than half (55.3%) of Gen Zers use advanced budgeting tools—a greater share than any other generation, per a PYMNTS Intelligence report. Our take: Payment providers, issuers, and banks can embed more advanced tools within their apps to reach Gen Zers actively seeking sophisticated ways to plot out their spending and saving habits.
The news: American Express’s net revenues grew 9% YoY in Q2 2025, per its earnings release. Our take: Amex’s expansion into international markets and bet on its Gen Z and millennial cardholders’ interest in exclusive, experiential rewards has been a winning combination. But there may be early signs that Amex’s strategy is reaching its limits as consumers grapple with financial anxieties.
In this podcast episode, we discuss the importance of physical touchpoints for brands and explore what attracts younger generations to in-store shopping experiences. We also examine the expectations consumers have for engaging in person experiences. Join our conversation with Senior Director of Podcasts and host, Marcus Johnson, Chief Client Strategy & Integration; President of Quad Agency Services, Tim Maleeny, and Vice President of Content, Suzy Davidkhanian. Listen everywhere you find podcasts and watch on YouTube and Spotify.
The insight: Amazon’s decision to double the length of its Prime Day sale delivered significant rewards for its advertising business—as we said it would. The takeaway: The first four-day Prime Day was an important learning experience for brands. With the event unlikely to get any shorter, sellers will need to be more precise about their ad strategy—focusing spending on times of day when shoppers are more likely to buy, or saving the bulk of their budgets for end-of-sale urgency.
The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.
The news: Cash App rolled out an extra layer of protection for minors’ P2P payments, with automatic flagging for sponsors (parents or guardians) to approve risky requests. Our take: Attracting young users at the beginning of their financial lives can yield long-term loyalty to the app.
The news: US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in June, per the Commerce Department, well ahead of the projected 0.1% increase. On a YoY basis, sales were up a healthy 3.9%, a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of considerable uncertainty. Our take: June’s upbeat sales report underscores the volatility of the current retail landscape. While consumers may currently feel secure enough to manage rising prices, that could quickly change as tariff-related cost increases begin to hit more directly.
The news: Mastercard launched the World Legend Mastercard, a premium card for higher-spending customers, alongside an overhaul of rewards and perks across the entire Mastercard Collection. Our take: We anticipate that card networks will jockey for the most premium cards as issuers cater to wealthy consumers’ reward wish lists.
The news: Circle K owner Alimentation Couche-Tard has dropped its bid to buy Japan’s Seven & i Holdings, casting doubt on whether the 7-Eleven operator’s planned US IPO will proceed, Bloomberg reported. Our take: As 7-Eleven continues efforts to strengthen its core business, the failed takeover bid offers lessons for retailers and brands. Decisions involving globally recognized brands should be strategic, not reactive. Retailers must maintain flexibility to revisit IPO or spin-off plans as business circumstances change.
Only 28% of US luxury consumers felt optimistic about the economy in April 2025, down from 41% in January 2025 and 45% in April 2024, according to data from Saks.
On today's podcast episode, we discuss the state of some of our 2025 predictions, including GenAI’s influence on business growth, the influence of China’s e-commerce disruptors, the squeeze on retail media networks, and more. Then, we offer a few more slightly spicier predictions for the remainder of the year ahead. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President Suzy Davidkhanian and Senior Analyst Carina Perkins.
The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users’ behalf without “final human review,” the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren’t yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.
The news: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup posted strong Q2 2025 earnings—and warnings about Trump’s mercurial economic policies. Our take: While revenues, credit card volumes and delinquency rates reflect positively about the health of the American consumer, their lived experience remains fraught.
66% of U.S. adults have reduced nonessential shopping to manage expenses, according to March 2025 data from CivicScience.
The news: Comscore, iSpot, and VideoAmp passed the Joint Industry Committee’s (JIC) midterm audit to maintain certification for the 2025-2026 broadcast season. Our take: The JIC’s certification and sports-heavy audit process could help iSpot, Comscore, and VideoAmp gain ground on Nielsen.
While a plurality of consumers in the western hemisphere start their product searches on search engines, social media platforms are significant search launching pads for consumers in Argentina (17.8%), Brazil (16.8%), and Mexico (18.0%), according to November 2024 data from ESW and EMARKETER.