Retail media ad spending keeps climbing, but growth is slowing and the largest networks are tightening their grip. Off-site advertising, CTV, and AI shopping ads offer new revenue opportunities, while smaller networks face mounting pressure to stand out.

Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say. Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast. As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results. In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix. Max Willens, a principal analyst at EMARKETER covering social media and the creator economy, told us about how creators are taking a bigger role in retail media and where off-site spending can be used in the marketing funnel.

AI business agents offer Meta a new path to revenues beyond advertising. Small businesses are a natural entry point, but enterprise concerns over data access and control threaten broader adoption.

Marketers are connecting measurement more closely to business decisions as incrementality gains ground, AI use accelerates, and less observable customer journeys challenge traditional attribution.

Marketers using its platforms risk losing consumer trust unless they scrutinize data-sharing practices.

What Q3 earnings say about the future of advertising

Platforms can rewrite content rules quickly, making crawler controls and policy monitoring urgent priorities.

AI is fueling a banner year for global advertising, pushing digital spending to new heights despite economic and geopolitical stresses. Retail media is surging worldwide, while Meta and Amazon gain ground in the battle for ad dollars.

The latest data reveals where US digital markets are headed as ad spending concentrates in a few platforms, genAI search and AI-driven commerce move into the mainstream, and CTV takes over TV budgets.

The expansion brings more campaign goals under AI, making independent performance checks imperative.

Smart glasses are drawing big bets from certain social platforms, but privacy concerns and limited consumer demand threaten wider adoption. For marketers, the near-term opportunity lies in adapting existing strategies rather than chasing new ad formats.

In today’s podcast episode, we discuss what would happen if an extended MLB lockout led to a death spiral for regional sports networks (RSNs), the BBC started carrying advertising, and Meta’s Muse flopped. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Senior Analyst Ross Benes, and Principal Analysts Bill Fisher and Max Willens. Listen wherever you get your podcasts, or watch on YouTube or Spotify.

Marketers, creators, and brands descended on midtown Manhattan this week for Advertising Week New York (AWNY), and the conversations kept circling back to three themes: fandom, trust, and street activations. Brands came to make news: TikTok announced new tools to expand the reach of TikTok Shop, Meta launched an upgrade for its Ads Manager business assistant, and Olyzon rolled out an agentic orchestration platform. But beyond the reveals, trends emerged from session topics, panel discussions, word-of-mouth, and private conversations. They revealed the growing importance of fandom's audiences, looking for trust, and IRL activations.

Campaigns should plan alternatives like converged TV and the open web to maintain voter reach.

The Edits assistant can power stronger branded videos as long as marketers clarify campaign priorities.

The World Cup and presidential elections have lifted ad spending growth across all major media in 2026, but digital’s momentum will extend beyond the event-driven boost.

The move adds to fragmented youth social media rules, making contextual ads a safer route for reach.

AI is raising the stakes for marketing data quality and connectivity and changing how it’s being used. Here’s how first-party data, outcome-based measurement, interoperability, and AI are reshaping marketing decisions.

Brands can advertise without an Instagram profile, though Meta’s cross-app data still powers much of its value.

B2B digital ad spending growth is accelerating in 2026. Although mobile growth is slowing from its 2025 pace, mobile and video will still outpace overall B2B digital spending. Display’s share is expanding, while search remains important as AI changes how buyers research and validate vendors.