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Marcus Johnson: Atmosphere TV is the largest streaming TV platform purpose-built for shared social spaces like bars, restaurants, gyms, and airports. Atmosphere TV is the creator of CHIVE TV and over 30 mesmerizing audio-optional channels that entertain over 150 million monthly viewers. Built for business, made for fun.

Marcus Johnson: Atmosphere TV

Marcus Johnson: Hey, gang, it's Monday, October 12th. Ross, Bill, Max, and listeners, welcome to Behind the Numbers, an eMarketer podcast made possible by Atmosphere TV. I'm Marcus, and joining me for today's conversation, we have three folks just, uh, north of, uh, New York City, uh, Senior Analyst Ross Benes.

Ross Benes: Hey, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson: Hey, fella.

Marcus Johnson: He covers digital media for us. We've got Principal Analyst, uh, covering the UK, over in the UK, Mr. Bill Fisher.

Bill Fisher: Hello, Marcus.

Marcus Johnson: Hello, hello. And Principal Analyst covering social media, he is in Philly, Max Willens.

Bill Fisher: Yo.

Marcus Johnson: Yes. Today's fact

Marcus Johnson: Which ... So what is America's favorite ice cream flavor? And by that, I mean which flavor is popular in the most states? Oh, okay. So is strawberry most popular in, like, 20 of the states, and that's number one, or is it da, da, da?

Ross Benes: Okay. I, I'll go with strawberry.

Bill Fisher: Vanilla.

Marcus Johnson: And Bill, you said?

Bill Fisher: Well, I'm agreeing with Max.

Bill Fisher: Vanilla. You're

Marcus Johnson: gonna pick vanilla, too. Okay. You, you're right, too. Uh, signature flavor in 19 states, more than any other flavor. Um, it's basically all the middle ones. Uh, in the middle of the country, it's all those. Then you've got Florida, the only state where plain chocolate wins despite ranking as the second most ordered flavor nationally.

Marcus Johnson: So it's no one's first favorite, um, but it's most people's second favorite. And then there's essentially- That's how

Ross Benes: I am as a podcast guest here.

Marcus Johnson: No comment. Uh, there are multiple geographic clusters as well. So rocky road is number one in the West. Coffee, ugh, in, uh, New England, in that corner. Uh, mint choc chip in the Mid-Atlantic cluster of Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Peanut butter in the Rust Belt, and butter pecan, as you guys say, pecan, pecan, uh, through, uh, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Marcus Johnson: So there are flavor clusters throughout the states. Um, don't worry, Bill, I've got you. Britain's favorite ice cream flavor according to YouGov is?

Bill Fisher: Caramel

Marcus Johnson: No. That's no- that's nowhere on the list. No. Oh, salted caramel-

Bill Fisher: Yeah ...

Marcus Johnson: I give you it... Yeah, we... Is fifth. Good save. Tied with rum raisin, rum and raisin. These are shocking flavors.

Marcus Johnson: Uh, it's vanilla again. Uh, surprisingly 18% mi- mint choc chip in a cheeky second. 14% chocolate, third just behind, and then strawberry behind that. Really, England's favorite, Britain's favorite ice cream flavor is Mr. Whippy, which I guess technically is vanilla.

Bill Fisher: It's not ice cream, Marcus. It's... I don't know what it is.

Marcus Johnson: That's a fair point. Who knows what's happening in those ice cream trucks, but it tastes amazing. Put a flake in it, job done. Anyway, today's real topic. We make some... I don't even know if they're very specific highly unlikely predictions. We're gonna talk about some what if things.

Marcus Johnson: All right, here's how this episode works. Ross is first. He gets 45 seconds to pitch a what if, uh, scenario that, um, could possibly come true in the short term, uh, in the near future. Uh, and then we'll discuss it. Bill goes next, and then Max. Ross, what do you have?

Ross Benes: So the MLB is going to go into an extended lockout for this next season due to labor issues and the league wanting to institute a salary cap, which the players don't want.

Ross Benes: This is going to force regional sports networks to shut down at an even greater rate than they had been previously, which is going to centralize control of MLB local broadcast directly to the league

Marcus Johnson: So, let's get into the why. So it's, it's the only major US sport without a salary cap, correct? Don't believe hockey does?

Marcus Johnson: Yes. Okay.

Ross Benes: Yeah.

Marcus Johnson: Um, and they, why is this a big deal now? Why are they debating this at the moment?

Ross Benes: Well, oh, and part of the what if is the Dodgers will win the World Series. And the Dodgers winning the World Series i- is, um, going to put on greater pressure to institute a cap because they outspend everyone tremendously and they sign all the biggest free agents.

Ross Benes: So, like if you look at the last few years, they already had a all-star roster with multiple MVPs, and then they signed Ohtani, and then they got, uh, Diaz from the Mets. And even though they already are a roster complete with all-stars, they have much more talent than even the '90s Yankees did. So they are, are on a quest to have their third consecutive World Series, and the argument is that it's, like, unfair that the Dodgers have this advantage and we need to level the playing field.

Ross Benes: And the players, of course, say, "This sport has operated fine for over 100 years without a salary cap. You billionaire owners don't even pay for your own stadiums, now you don't even wanna pay your s- your talent what they're worth. You're not going to direct this money into the community, you're just going to hoard it and save it for yourselves.

Ross Benes: Why should we have our revenue cut when the, the fans come to see us, not to see the owners?" So there's a, there's a big- Mm ... rivalry there between the owners and the labor, the players. And it's really gonna come to a head if the Dodgers win. It's probably gonna come to a head anyways, and the big, uh, date to look at is, uh, June 1st basically because, uh, the league, if they have an extended lockout that extends beyond 60 games, then their rights for their national broadcasts extend a full year.

Ross Benes: And MLB doesn't want that to happen- Mm ... because media rights just keep going up. So th- you know, y- they don't wanna give Fox and ESPN and NBC another year on their current schedule. They wanna make everyone negotiate. But you have to give them an extended year if you miss more than 60 games. That's what's in the contract, and 60 games basically is the end of May.

Ross Benes: So if they haven't reached an agreement by the start of June, then the rights are going to extend and you're gonna have an even greater likelihood that the season is fully gonna be a washout.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Ross Benes: And these regional sports networks rely on baseball heavily. They've already struggled. The, y- you've seen Sinclair bought the regional sports networks from Fox and then they called it Diamond, and then it rebranded to Bally, and now it's the FanDuel Sports Network.

Ross Benes: It changes names so many times 'cause no one wants to be associated with them because it's a failing business.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

Ross Benes: Y- you, you have a few at the top teams, like the YES Network with the Yankees, that do quite well, but a lot of these networks, they just can't make it go when, um, they relied on cable subscribers, people who weren't even watching it, to pay those, you know, little monthly fees.

Ross Benes: And with fewer s- cable subscribers, they don't have the revenue. And then if you don't have baseball for a year How do you keep, like, a, a Midwest or a Deep South regional sports network going if you don't even have the games, and that's, like, the one thing that they come to you for?

Bill Fisher: Yeah.

Ross Benes: So that, that'll force more teams out of their RSN contracts, and the league is gonna wanna come in and say, "We'll help you distribute those," and they wanna exert control over local broadcasts.

Ross Benes: The, the strike isn't mainly about that, but that would be, uh, a big media and advertising effect if a strike were to happen.

Max Willens: Mm-hmm. I, I think that this... I love this as a, a topic of discussion. I, the thing that I've been wondering about, Ross, is whether you think... 'Cause the league obviously, like, is only going to step in and, and take control of these assets if they can't f- you know, pawn them off on anybody else.

Max Willens: And I'm wondering if you think that that is really where we've landed, right? Like, is it not, is it out of the question in your mind that- You know, like an Amazon or like a Walmart, for example, now that they are trying to get more into video and a lot of retail media networks are trying to figure out, uh, a way into sports or are at least kicking that idea around.

Max Willens: And I feel like if, you know, for Walmart in particular, I don't know why I'm fixated on Walmart, but like, you know, that's a sport that probably appeals to a big chunk of their, of their customer base. It's a lot of people that would certainly- Mm ... you know, love to be able to watch, uh, baseball games for free with their Walmart Plus subscription or something like that.

Max Willens: Like- Interesting ... do you feel like the MLB is kind of out of b- other buyers and that the, they're the only ones who are left to catch it? Or do you think that there's other people that might step in and, you know, take these, um, admittedly not super attractive assets off of, you know, Sinclair's hands?

Ross Benes: Well, so, uh, Amazon was going to invest in Diamond Sports at one point and then they killed it.

Ross Benes: Yeah. So I don't think Amazon actually really wants in the regional sports business outside of the Yankees and some select hockey games. Um, 'cause they already could have had a big stake in it and, and chose not to. I, I think the league actually does want control of them because they're, right now they're, um, they're like league pass or they don't call it league pass, but like, you know, they're, they're...

Ross Benes: When you pay MLB to get access to everything, it's quite limited and there's a lot of blackout restrictions and you can't see like your local team in market. If the league were to eventually have universal control of local rights, they could become more streaming first and get around a lot of that like historical baggage that I feel like is, is keeping, um, baseball harder to reach for young fans.

Ross Benes: Mm. Now I think the league would still partner with local TV companies, still offer like, you know, over the air broadcasts. Um, but they, they've already taken control of several other teams a- that have gone through this. It's about half the league has gone through this process already and, um, you know, some use, uh, you know, external providers, like The Zone is doing really well in, in basketball and hockey as well.

Ross Benes: Um, some strike it out on their own. But I, I, I think the league actually does want this even though it seems to be dwindling because they can make a more unified offering than they have right now. Right now it's, it's kind of splintered and, and they're The, like, package that they sell fans to get access to everything, um, doesn't do that well when you can't even access your local team.

Max Willens: I think your point about, like, at minimum just getting rid of the, like, headache of blackouts m- might make it a valuable move and, and certainly might, might in some ways kind of solve some of the, the advertising headaches, right? Because, like, one of the reasons the RSNs fail, in addition to the, the dwindling number of people on a cable bundle, is that, like, you know, it's, it's just not that big an, of an audience, uh, for a, a national, uh, advertiser.

Max Willens: Um, and so... But if you can bundle up enough people on, I don't know what MLB's product is called either, but if you bundle enough people up onto it, then maybe you can, uh, uh, dangle that in front of a national advertiser and, and- Mm-hmm ... you know, help kind of, uh, soften that, uh, part of the, of the business.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah. Um, Bill, just out of curiosity, has the Premier League English- Bill, wake up ... uh, soccer, has that has that, um, has that ever kicked around the idea, pun intended, of a salary cap?

Bill Fisher: Ah, y- you know, I've, I've been falling asleep because you're talking about baseball- ... and I have absolutely no interest in it.

Bill Fisher: Um, but, but it is, it, it is really interesting to contrast and compare with the UK because, you know, we are such a small market. The, I mean, regional sports networks, what, what the hell's that? You know, we are, we are one region. And, and that, that gives a lot of bargaining power to the Premier League, for example-

Marcus Johnson: Yeah

Bill Fisher: to negotiate the, the broadcast rights. Um, and so you, uh, we still have the very big cable networks, um, Sky and TNT in the UK that carry most of the games. But a way in for, for the streaming platforms, I mean, Am- Amazon's got involved in, um, in a small way by buying the rights to a small package of games.

Bill Fisher: But DAZN is getting a foothold in the lower leagues, so-

Marcus Johnson: By non-league you mean not the main league. Outside of the 20 teams in the Premier League, which is the main league, there are other leagues below that.

Bill Fisher: There, there are four divisions that aren't professional.

Marcus Johnson: Mm. Right,

Bill Fisher: right. And then there are a further 550 that aren't.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah. Right, right.

Bill Fisher: And, and that's not, that's not an exaggeration. Um- Yeah ... yeah, I can get access to those lower, lower non, uh, non-professional-

Marcus Johnson: Yeah ...

Bill Fisher: leagues

Marcus Johnson: at no

Bill Fisher: cost. Yeah.

Marcus Johnson: But there's, there, there is no salary cap and there's no talk of one, right?

Bill Fisher: No, I don't think there will be. Yeah. And, and, and the, the big teams...

Bill Fisher: Well, there's a big thing going on at the moment with Man City that have been... There are financial fair play rules, and Man City have been found guilty of flouting those rules to the tune of nearly £1 billion, um, over a period of eight years, I think.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

Bill Fisher: Uh, so they, they may end, end up getting stripped of their titles.

Bill Fisher: Um, but it's- Wow ... still the case that the biggest teams, the biggest brands, um, demand the biggest investment because they have the most fans. Yeah. They get the most viewership, and so they continue to get richer because they get the most budget coming in- Yeah ... to then spend on players.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah. All right, we've done a whole episode on this, so we have to move on.

Marcus Johnson: Okay, yeah. Um, but it's a great, it's a great, um, uh, piece of conversation. But, uh, before we go, I have to just, 'cause I'm a Dodgers fan, just in our defense, in 2025 we spent the same amount of money as the Mets. We won the, uh, World Series, they didn't make the playoffs.

Ross Benes: Let's just- That's one year ... it wasn't, it wasn't the same amount, and also the Ohtani contract-

Marcus Johnson: Was the same amount.

Marcus Johnson: Unbelievable ...

Ross Benes: so, so the... That's like saying- I you, you're paying Ohtani for the next 30 years or whatever. Like, you're, you're... He's not on the payroll right now the way he should be. That's right. Yes.

Marcus Johnson: So

Ross Benes: that, that's like saying that I g- um, you know, I, I'm paying the same amount as, as someone who, like, is paying nothing for their housing.

Ross Benes: I just happen to have a mortgage for the next 30 years.

Marcus Johnson: It's wild that they let him get away with that contract structure. I'm kicking, kicking the can down the road. So you're right there. Why did they allow that? Um, anyway, go Dodgers. I think you're right. They're gonna win the champion- the World Series this year.

Marcus Johnson: Anyway, uh, Bill, what you got for us?

Bill Fisher: We're gonna talk about the BBC, um, the biggest public service broadcaster in the UK, one of the biggest in the world, I imagine. Uh, does not carry advertising. It's funded by a license model, so every, uh, UK viewer or UK consumer has to pay £180 per year to be able to watch any public service broadcaster i- including the BBC and those that carry advertising, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5.

Bill Fisher: Every 10 years, the BBC has to justify its existence to a government body. It's called the Royal Charter Review. That's gonna happen next year, and the BBC's in a lot of trouble. It's, um, it's looking to shed- Mm, 2,000 jobs, I think. Um, it's lost around $1 billion in unclaimed license fee revenue because people aren't paying it in protest.

Bill Fisher: And so the, uh... Oh, and I should add, it, the environment that it operates in has changed beyond all recognition in the last 10 years since the last charter review. So it's under pressure. It's got a new director general, he's ex-Google, and the government has mooted advertising as one way that it could be more financially viable.

Marcus Johnson: Mm.

Bill Fisher: So I w- m- my point is, what if the BBC started carrying advertising? Could happen. Yeah.

Marcus Johnson: This is fascinating. I went and did some digging 'cause to Bill's point, the way that people pay for this thing is, um, this licensing fee. And so I looked at the past 15 years and said, "Well, why don't they just put the price up of the licensing fee?"

Marcus Johnson: And so I went and looked. In the last 15 years, TV license fee has gone from £145 to £180, that's $190 to $240. Um, it's doubled. If you look at nominal pricing, it's doubled since 1996. But if you look at the analysis and do the real term cost of a license fee, um, in, like, today's dollars or pounds, it's actually slightly decreased or is flat.

Marcus Johnson: And so Bill, I was, 'cause there's been these freezes, there was a big freeze, I think, uh, 2010 to 2017. They froze it for a few years, 2022, 2024. So my first thought was why don't they just put the price up and get the money that way? Because if you look at how many people are... I was looking, BBC was showing, uh, today fewer than 80% of UK homes pay for a TV license.

Marcus Johnson: But in 2010 that was about 97%. I was assuming that would've dropped off a cliff, but there are still a lot of people paying for this. Why wouldn't they just bump up the price?

Bill Fisher: Well, because when they do, people stop paying because there's been cost of living crisises and- Mm ... and, you know, it, it's almost a stealth cha- sta- a stealth tax if you, if you think of it because a lot of people would not, uh, don't necessarily wanna watch the BBC and they can say, "Look, I'm not watching the BBC.

Bill Fisher: Why do I have to- Right ... pay a license fee to watch it?" Right. But the law states that even if you watch any of the public service broadcasters-

Marcus Johnson: Yeah ...

Bill Fisher: you still have to have a license. So there's that sort of idea of it being inherently unfair. What, one of the solutions has actually been to have a household levy, which would be added onto the, like a council tax bill or broadband bills- Mm-hmm, mm-hmm

Bill Fisher: so that consumers would be forced to pay this, and then they would recoup all this lost revenue-

Marcus Johnson: Yeah ...

Bill Fisher: from the 20% that don't pay it. Um, but that again, that's just a stealth tax, and people will- They will complain about it. Um, quite how that will manifest, I'm not sure.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

Bill Fisher: Um, but ad- advertising is one way that they could, could make money.

Bill Fisher: I mean, you know, they, they have some real marquee programming, um, Strictly Come Dancing. You know, millions of people watch this.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Bill Fisher: Brands would be queuing up to advertise next to something like that. They still have big audiences, um, the BBC. You know, T- we, we talk about traditional media viewing time declining, TV time declining, but it's still significant.

Bill Fisher: And when you layer on top, 'cause BBC iPlayer is popular, when you layer on top, uh, broadcast a video on demand with TV- Mm ... that's increasing, and it's still much bigger than social media time in the UK. Yeah. So it's a really lucrative area, and, and advertising would... It, I, I mean, it's one very tempting route to go.

Max Willens: Mm-hmm.

Bill Fisher: There are reasons why you wouldn't do it, but, um-

Max Willens: So this is... Bill, this is really, really interesting. I'm, I'm curious, like, do you have a sense, or maybe is it worth talking about, like, how invasive or what kind of ads we're talking about here? Like, 'cause there's a version of this where it's just kind of a very, what you would call maybe, like, a 20th-century level of, of ad targeting, where it's just, you know, we're gonna...

Max Willens: We got these, this many people watching Strictly Come Dancing, or this many people watching Sherlock. I don't know if Sherlock's on the air anymore. Um, and uh, you know, we, we know they live in these ZIP codes, so there's that. Or is it a much more kind of 21st-century invasive, like, we've tied this viewer to this digital account, and we know that they have children because of the kinds of stuff that they read on BBC Good Food, and they have this kind of other content, um, portal and, and profile, so we're gonna use that?

Max Willens: Like, what's your sense of kind of how, uh, extractive they could be with, with an ad offering if they went with one?

Bill Fisher: Yeah, couple of good questions there. Uh, for the first half, we- we're sort of verging on an Amazon-like level of potential targeting, because the BBC isn't just a TV platform. It's TV, it's radio, it's podcasts, it's, it's online, it's news, it's local, so there are local versions of all this as well.

Bill Fisher: And so the targeting could be really, really good. Um- Whether consumers would appreciate that, uh, no, they wouldn't. So we, we have, uh, we, we... Well, I, I say no, but that's coming from a Gen X-er, right? So we have grown up with the BBC as part of the fabric of our society, and it's always been ad free, and, and I appreciate that.

Bill Fisher: I would say millennials as well, Gen Z to a degree, um, for any of us to see advertising appearing anywhere across the BBC would be very jarring, and we don't- Yeah ... and I don't think we'd like it. Um, but that's not to say that Gen Z and the rapidly growing Gen Alpha would not be conducive to advertising because they're seeing it on all the digital channels where they are getting their free content.

Bill Fisher: Yeah. So I think this is why the government and the BBC are seriously considering it. I, uh, I feel it's a pivotal time as well. So December 27, I think, is when they have to have been through the review process and have it signed off. So the whole of next year, this is gonna be in my key trends report I think this year- Yeah

Bill Fisher: um, because this is, this is gonna play out and the, the decision that the BBC takes is gonna have a, a huge impact on whether it survives the next 10 years, 'cause it's, it's really in trouble.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm. I thought it was an interesting point made by Sarah Young and Paul Sandle of Reuters, 'cause they... I think the reason that folks in the UK would be upset by, uh, the appearance of ads, apart from just we've never had them, is, as they say in this Reuters piece, "BBC prides itself as a beacon of neutrality and truth."

Marcus Johnson: And so if you have ads, how, how, how influences the content? Um, however, they also said that one of the proposals by the government, uh, is that you could see news, current affairs, uh, factual and children's TV remain funded by a license, and universally available with more commercially viable content, like drama, funded by a subscription.

Marcus Johnson: So maybe you separate out the content and that would be more palatable for folks.

Bill Fisher: Yeah. I, I, I mean, there, there are various models and, like, a blended model, but, but you've still gotta convince people, are they gonna be happy to, to have a decreased license fee for some of the content and pay a subscription- Yeah

Bill Fisher: for some of the other content and- Yeah ... accept advertising on the other content? It, it gets messy, so- It does.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah ...

Bill Fisher: I dunno.

Marcus Johnson: Great one. Uh, Max, what do you have?

Max Willens: Uh, basically anybody that, um, has consumed media of, of any kind in the United States, uh, in the last three weeks has seen, uh, ads for Muse. Uh, this is the kind of personal assistant, um, agent that, uh, Meta launched a couple of weeks ago.

Max Willens: And it is quite clear that, that Meta is really, really trying to make Muse a thing. Um, in the weeks since M- Muse's launch, uh, based on data that I think Media Radar had, Meta committed 50% of its, of its house inventory to pushing Muse. So that's, you know, the first, um- Wow ... story tile on Instagram. That's, um, you know, ads across its surfaces that it uses to advertise its own stuff, and that's before you get into the millions and millions of dollars they've spent on ads, um, against really, really, uh, expensive primetime, uh, television programming.

Max Willens: I saw a Muse ad, um, on the Roku home screen, which, which frankly kind of shocked me. Um, and for all of this spending and pushing and, and, and promoting, uh, it got them to 5 million downloads in under three weeks. Uh, which sounds like a lot, it's, it's certainly not nothing, but, um, that's, uh, less than Threads got, uh, in its first three weeks.

Max Willens: Uh, it's- Mm ... you know, claims from reporters that Muse has read private messages the reporter didn't give Muse permission to look at, that Muse has, you know, uh, mishandled, uh, and bungled, uh, transactions on Facebook Marketplace. Um, and then there, that's, and all of that be- is before the kind of more ambient problems that Meta faces with its own, um, its standing among consumers, right?

Max Willens: Mm-hmm. So, the Journal had this really great piece about a month ago where, um, they unearthed some data from, I think it was Oppenheimer, where they basically, Oppenheimer asked about 1,500 American consumers w- uh, how likely they would be to entrust certain companies with their passwords to certain accounts, right?

Max Willens: So they asked about, uh, about Amazon and Google and, um, and Meta, and just 8% of the respondents said that they would trust Muse, um, with their passwords to things. And if Me- if Muse is going to work the way that Mark Zuckerberg hopes everybody uses it, it's going to have to be connected to the other kind of sensitive digital parts of your life, right?

Max Willens: You know, what happens if this doesn't work? You know, Mar- uh, Meta has, will wind up spending, I think, something like $145 billion on CapEx this year. And, you know, a lot of that is going into, um, compute that they are able to use on their core product advertising, which still- Right ... you know, spews forth billions of dollars in profit every quarter.

Max Willens: But they are clearly hoping that they can kind of move into pole position in the consumer, uh, assistant agent space.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Max Willens: And I, I am just, you know, really interested to hear what you guys think about the idea that, um, this could just fall on its, flat on its face.

Marcus Johnson: On the face of it, it sounds useful.

Marcus Johnson: Thomas Germaine of BBC explained that Muse is a tool where it goes into the world, uh, and completes unsupervised tasks. So you g- you, it has its own, um, using its own web browser, Muse can cancel your gym membership, it can haggle with customer service people, buy groceries, invite friends to parties, soon make phone calls.

Marcus Johnson: It's the first free, full-featured agent from a big company. Um, I guess my question, Max, is, um, if it doesn't work, is the flop a referendum on Muse, on social media agents, or on agents at large?

Max Willens: Well, this is the thing that I think is so interesting about this, right? Because, you know, I, I think that that's, that would be a really fun question to try to unpack.

Max Willens: Like, is this a question of the fact that nobody trusts Meta? Mm-hmm. Is it a question of the idea that nobody trusts- ... uh, a, you know, an AI agent? Because we all are familiar with the concept of hallucinations and malevolent, um, you know, actions and, and misalignment, I guess, is the, you know, very Orwellian term that, um, the AI companies use.

Max Willens: And, um, and so is, is that it, right? Mm-hmm. Like, people just think, "I'm not letting, uh, an AI, uh, get control of any part of my life." Um- And, uh, and this has really big implications, right? Because th- there are now, you know, we're, we're barreling down a path of basically, like, a trillion dollars of CapEx being invested in AI over the next 10 years.

Max Willens: And, you know, if, if one of the kind of major pushes by one of the largest, richest, um, m- most used companies on the planet can't get it to work, what likelihood is there that people are going to embrace an agent offered by a smaller, less trusted, uh, more financially wobbler, wa- wobbly competitor like OpenAI or Anthropic?

Max Willens: Yeah. Um- Yeah ... what are the prospects that people would trust Gemini, right?

Marcus Johnson: Yeah.

Max Willens: You know?

Ross Benes: But what would you trust this product with?

Max Willens: Well, I am trying to figure that out. So at the moment, I am treating Muse a little bit like th- uh, the way that I treat OpenAI and Gemini, right? Where I basically, like, give it scut work that I don't like doing.

Max Willens: Um, and, uh, so far I'm, I'm not getting enough out of it that I feel like, "Thank God this is here," you know? Um, and I, I feel on some level like that's ... There's gonna have to be a, a critical mass of people who feel that kind of, "Thank God I have this," to keep using it, especially because, to your point, Marcus, it's free to use at the start, but if you really lean into it in a way that, you know, Meta is surely hoping its, its users will, it starts to cost money based on usage- Mm-hmm

Max Willens: right? So if you're, if you turn into a power user, you also turn into someone who's giving Meta, uh, uh, money every month.

Marcus Johnson: Mm-hmm.

Max Willens: And, um, I just- You know, maybe I'm, I'm too old and too grouchy and too set in my ways, but, like, I have yet to sort of encounter a use case or a, a muse case as I've been calling it- Oh,

Marcus Johnson: no

Marcus Johnson: that was like...

Max Willens: I told you I'm old. Like- That's a shame ... this is what, this is where I... Yeah, it, it-

Bill Fisher: But it's not available in the UK. Um, if I w- were not in this industry, I don't think I'd know about it. Um, it's not available in Europe for obvious reasons, I think. So I think it would fall foul- Mm ... of lots of regulatory con- uh, constraints- Mm

Bill Fisher: along the GDPR lines, and then the EU's AI Act as well. Um, but the, the biggest issue I have, and is it just me that spotted this? But this, this little character looks to appeal to kids, if you ask me. And given what Meta has just- Mm ... come up against in the States as well as in Europe, a- about, you know, issues around, um, kids, that it's using a figure like this.

Max Willens: Yeah, I think that that's a good question, Bill. I mean, like, I, um... In a, in a lot of different areas of their, uh, you know, business, they, they are definitely just kind of plowing ahead with what they want, um, regardless of what signals they seem to be getting from the outside world. Like- Mm-hmm ... for example, Meta recently, um, f- felt itself compelled to settle, um, a lawsuit Over, you know, addictive behavior and there, there's, you know, currently reading all these headlines about how lots and lots of communities across the United States are implementing bell-to-bell bans on using, uh, cell phones in schools.

Max Willens: And, you know, most of that is designed to sort of cut down on young people's use of apps like Instagram. And amidst all this, uh, Instagram launches Instagram for School, um, like, uh, three weeks ago, which is basically a let's use Instagram as the messaging, uh, infrastructure for your teachers, and your students, and your school administrators.

Max Willens: So before you think about a bell-to-bell ban, just remember if you want, uh, your teachers to be able to talk to your students, you gotta let them use Instagram for School. And, like, I think on some level they, because of how gigantic they are, they, they are kind of operating with a sort of we're just gonna plow ahead, um, and not worry too much about public opinion.

Max Willens: Mm. Uh, and so this may be on some level, uh, the, the choice of mascot and other things is kind of part and parcel of that.

Marcus Johnson: Yeah. I thought it was an interesting, uh, quote from that Thomas Germaine piece from the BBC. Said, "The internet was r- related to Meta and Muse, uh, Meta's Muse. Uh, the internet was built for humans with limited time and patience.

Marcus Johnson: AIs don't have those restraints. You'll probably have to fight with robots over concert tickets and booking appointments. Small businesses could drown in machine-made pestering. AIs don't look at ads, and websites that rely on them are already crumbling. Uh, you'll be buried in endless loops of proving you're human, and if you use those AI tools, some may betray you.

Marcus Johnson: Eventually, we'll rebuild the internet for this new reality. Perhaps that world will be better. Until then, things may get ugly." I just thought it was a really, uh, interesting point. Um, all right, gang. That's all we've got time for for today's episode. Uh, top takeaway slide, uh, just to recap. Ross' what if is what if the MLB goes into an extended lockout and that leads to a death spiral of regional sports networks, uh, RSNs.

Marcus Johnson: Uh, Bill's was what if the BBC started carrying advertising. And Max's was what if Meta's Muse flops? Um, thank you so much to my guests for hanging out with me today. Thank you to Ross. Thanks, Marcus. And to Bill.

Bill Fisher: Been a pleasure, man.

Marcus Johnson: And of course Max.

Max Willens: Always a pleasure, Marcus. Thank you.

Marcus Johnson: Yes, indeed, and to Lance on the production crew.

Marcus Johnson: Thanks to everyone for listening to Behind the Numbers, the marketing podcast made possible by Atmosphere TV. On Wednesday, Suzy will be speaking with retailer Claire's on the Reimagined Retail show, and I'll be back on Friday with more what if situations.