Commerce media is entering a new phase, one defined less by rapid expansion and more by operational maturity, EMARKETER analysts and industry leaders say.

• Commerce media ad spending will reach $83.71 billion in the US this year, accounting for 20.5% of all digital ad spending, according to EMARKETER's June 2026 forecast.

As the channel becomes a core part of marketers' media strategies, the conversation is shifting from whether to invest to how to make those investments deliver measurable business results.

In a new EMARKETER guide titled "Commerce media outlook: What industry leaders see ahead," our analysts and industry leaders give their thoughts about the capabilities brands should prioritize today, the consumer behaviors that will shape tomorrow, and what it will take to succeed as commerce media becomes a permanent pillar of the media mix.

Max Willens, a principal analyst at EMARKETER covering social media and the creator economy, told us about how creators are taking a bigger role in retail media and where off-site spending can be used in the marketing funnel.

Q. Creator content is increasingly influencing not just awareness, but also product discovery and purchase decisions. Where do you see the biggest opportunity for commerce media and creator marketing to work together?

A: The industry is slowly hacking away at the obstacles that stand in the way of marketers who want to combine commerce media and creator marketing. As those continue to fall away, brands that quickly identify which combinations of creators work best at driving full-funnel results will find a big opportunity in using creators to generate the creative parts of their off-site campaigns.

Q. Consumers often discover a product on TikTok, research it on Reddit or YouTube, and purchase it through a retailer. How should brands build commerce media strategies that reflect this more fragmented customer journey?

A: Off-site commerce media spending can be used to tag people at lots of different parts of the purchase funnel, and brands need to develop clear understandings of the role that each off-site platform plays in that customer journey. It is not enough to develop one strategy for social, another for web, etc. The social networks each play distinct roles in consumers' lives, and bringing a uniform approach to the entire social channel will end up being more wasteful than one that's network-specific.

Q. Consumers increasingly expect shopping experiences to feel authentic rather than overly transactional. What role do creators and communities play in helping brands build trust as commerce media becomes more personalized?

A: Brands, platforms, and social networks are just starting to explore how they can leverage and exploit consumer reviews, user feedback, and creator content to steer consumers toward conversions. Reddit, Amazon, and Meta in particular all recognize that they sit on unique supplies of user data that can be used to shape consumers' opinions of products, and each is trying to find ways to show their users what their respective communities think of products and services.

Q. AI is changing how consumers search for products and recommendations online. How do you see AI influencing the relationship between social platforms, creators, and commerce media?

A: The relationships between AI platforms and social networks is going to get a lot more complicated over the next few years, as the social networks each try to build out agentic elements that complement the experiences they offer their users. Social networks including Reddit, Instagram, and TikTok, along with the creator bedrock of YouTube, already exert profound influence over the answers that genAI platforms give their users. The social networks are going to try to exploit that role, while also making sure that they continue to nurture creators that are providing the raw material that gets harvested by the LLMs.

Q. Commerce media has historically excelled at measuring conversions, while creator marketing has focused more on engagement. Do you see those worlds becoming more connected, and what does that mean for measurement?

A: It is now almost as easy to measure a creator campaign's upper-funnel effects as it is to measure a creator campaign's bottom-funnel effects, provided each has been designed and executed thoughtfully. Leading retail media networks have already made it possible for brands to fit creators into their campaigns, and brands may soon expect an easy path toward doing the same across the ecosystem.