Our midyear report revisits the top trends we named in early 2025 to see what’s shaping the market, evolving fast, or fading in the rearview mirror.

Last November, our analysts made some predictions about how the retail category would fare in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to check back in on what has (or hasn’t) happened. "We're seeing many of our predicted trends playing out, though not always in the ways we anticipated," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of the "Behind the Numbers" podcast. "The retail landscape is evolving rapidly, with some developments accelerating faster than expected while others face unexpected headwinds."

Direct-to-consumer (D2C) ecommerce is evolving, driven by Gen Z’s shopping habits and the rise of powerful AI tools.

The situation: A perfect storm of consumer pullbacks, rising prices from new tariffs, and the suspension of the de minimis tax exemption will drag US ecommerce sales growth this year to its weakest pace since the Great Recession in 2009. We expect US online sales to grow just 5.0% this year in our moderate tariff scenario, which reflects the current policy landscape. That’s a 3-percentage-point drop from last year. Looking ahead: We expect ecommerce growth to experience a modest rebound to 5.3% growth in 2026. But more headwinds are on the horizon. The tax-and-spending package known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will close the de minimis loophole that lets most packages under $800 enter duty-free from countries outside China and Hong Kong. While that will eliminate the possibility of some workarounds, it could also reshape the economics of cross-border ecommerce—and place even more strain on platforms, suppliers, and price-sensitive consumers alike.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth—namely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs—are no longer in place.

Online fashion sales growth in France is stabilizing as global competitors capture market share and social platforms become more influential.

The news: Temu’s foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it’s possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors—and the harder it will be to regain market share.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

In the first half of 2025, tariffs rattled retailers, consumer trust wavered in the face of muted DEI efforts, and fast-fashion platforms like Shein and Temu braced for policy whiplash. Meanwhile, private label products surged in popularity, and the retail world took a closer look at generative AI—not just for buzz, but for tangible impact across the shopper journey. Here are the top stories from H1 2025 and why they matter for the rest of the year.

The US-China trade war drives Shein to diversify its sourcing: Shein and Reliance Retail plan to start international sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

29.5% of consumers say tariff-fueled price hikes would immediately impact their buying habits, and only 2.3% say their buying habits wouldn’t be impacted at all by price, according to a February 2025 Omnisend survey.

Temu parent PDD’s profits fell 47% in Q1 as global and domestic challenges pile up: The company’s operating model is ill-equipped for today’s protectionist trade policies.

The EU proposed a fee on small shipments: The new tax would add to the growing challenges facing Shein and Temu.

US social ad spend will grow YoY in 2025, even as platforms grapple with tariff-related budget cuts from industries that spend heavily on social channels, like CPG and retail.

A trade war between two of the world’s largest consumer markets would cause significant disruption for consumers, retailers, and brands in Europe.

Shein, Temu take advantage of tariff reprieve: Shein is raising prices while Temu resumes China shipments, as both retailers try to undo a sales slump.

A 90-day pause in tariffs added over $800 billion to the Magnificent Seven’s market cap, revealing just how damaging trade tensions had been for investor confidence.

The Trump administration is stepping back from the brink: After trimming China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, it reduced duties on low-value parcels from China to a still-high 54%.

Amazon Haul expands overseas as de minimis uncertainty clouds domestic prospects: The low-cost marketplace is now available to UK and Saudi Arabian shoppers.