Dramatic shifts are in the works for 2024, as genAI, changing media norms, and innovative commerce redefine the business landscape. Our top nine trends explore what’s in store.

Amazon is on track for its first-ever $100 billion holiday season, boosted by its unbeatable delivery speeds, while click and collect gives Walmart an omnichannel edge, and Temu draws in price-conscious consumers. Plus, TikTok and mobile apps help retailers connect with consumers and stand out among the competition.

With the ascent of Chinese ecommerce disruptors and the ongoing rivalry between Amazon and Walmart, the upcoming holiday season is expected to bring some big shifts. Some of those shifts include the lessening of Cyber Five’s importance and retailers losing focus on profitability, said our analysts Jeremy Goldman and Zak Stambor on a recent episode of the “Behind the Numbers” podcast.

Ecommerce sales will return to double-digit growth this holiday season amid a backdrop of healthy consumer spending.

Gen Z teens cut spending in response to inflation: Shoppers in this cohort are shopping more often at off-price and ecommerce retailers to save money, although the beauty category is as resilient as ever.

Mcommerce continues to defy the slump in online sales as people turn to their smartphones for savings and social media transforms Gen Z buying habits.

Amazon explores standalone subscriptions as Prime user growth slows: The retailer could roll out separate grocery and healthcare membership services as early as this year.

Temu overtook Target in US unique website visitors in January, but Walmart and Amazon remain on top (by a wide margin, in Amazon’s case), per Comscore Inc.

TikTok is rolling out its Shop feature to all 100 million US users (per our May forecast), using a tab on the home screen to drive users to the marketplace and allowing videos directly containing purchase links, in order to drive in-app ecommerce traffic.

Mcommerce will account for almost half (49.8%) of US ecommerce sales by 2027, according to our forecast.

Retail’s resilience and its outsized role in digital ad spending will help offset the impact of a broader slowdown in growth in the US digital advertising market.

Mcommerce sales growth will slow again this year as the market normalizes from the pandemic peak. But the channel is growing twice as fast as desktop as people do more online shopping on smartphones.

“Shopping apps and marketplaces that specialize in ultralow-cost goods from China are gaining a foothold among US consumers—with broader implications for the future of ecommerce,” our analyst Sky Canaves wrote in our Chinese Ecommerce in the US report. Canaves expanded on what’s driving this retail opportunity for companies like Shein, Temu, and TikTok in the US and how it will impact the US market on a recent “Reimagining Retail” podcast episode.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss the opportunity for China-based companies like Shein, Temu, and TikTok in the US, and how they can compete with Amazon. Then for "Red-Hot Retail," our analysts give us some spicy predictions about how fashion retail will change in the US as a direct result of Chinese manufacturers. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Sky Canaves and researcher and Asia-Pacific lead Man-Chung Cheung.

Shein claims it turned a profit in the first half: With rumors of a US IPO swirling, the company says its sales volume growth accelerated and profits improved this year. (This article was written with the assistance of ChatGPT.)

Nike and Hoka battle it out over young consumers and runners; Shein and Temu are caught up in controversies and litigation; and DoorDash and Instacart take different approaches to the same problem.

TikTok aims to generate $20 billion in sales via TikTok Shop, and is expected to launch its own US ecommerce store soon. The platform is also leveraging new search features to become a hub for retail ecommerce. TikTok is also pushing new AI ad tools, and getting involved in a host of new media ventures. Here’s what the platform has been up to over the past month.

TikTok aggressively courts sellers: The company aims to grow its social commerce sales by offering merchants free listings and shipping, along with zero commissions.

Shein made an unforced error: Its attempt to improve its public image by inviting influencers to its 'innovation center' only drove more scrutiny as it pursues an IPO.

Amazon is the top dog of US retail, accounting for 37.6% of all US ecommerce sales this year for a total of $431.11 billion dollars, according to our forecast. While the giant has a successful stronghold in many US industries, Amazon isn’t dominant everywhere, especially as it pertains to a physical footprint and getting consumers comfortable with its elite tech. Here are a few areas Amazon hasn’t overtaken—yet.