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EMARKETER

US Holiday 2022 Review and Holiday 2023 Preview

How the Rise of October Holiday Shopping Alters the 2023 Forecast

Report by Andrew Lipsman  |  Feb 28, 2023
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Report
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
The 2022 holiday season’s solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.
Topics
Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
US
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

Consumer spending during the 2022 US holiday season reverted to more typical levels following two years of outsize pandemic-era growth. As economic uncertainty continues into the new year, what should retail marketers expect for the 2023 holiday season?

Key Question: How does 2022’s US holiday season performance shape our early retail and ecommerce spending forecast for the 2023 holidays?

US Retail Holiday Season Sales, 2019-2023 (billions and % change)
E-Mail ChartDownload

KEY STAT: Last year, holiday season retail sales grew by 4.8% YoY, following two years of surging retail and ecommerce growth. We expect a similar gain of 4.5% for the 2023 holiday season.

Download
Report
Deck
The One-Pager
Share
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
The 2022 holiday season’s solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.
Topics
Holiday & Seasonal Shopping
US
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Holiday 2022 growth sets the stage for a solid but unspectacular holiday 2023.
Holiday retail sales growth underperformed in 2022, but that’s not a cause for concern in 2023.
Amazon’s Prime Early Access Sale in October pulled holiday spending forward.
Discounts drove holiday sales growth.
Thanksgiving weekend posted big in-store foot traffic gains.
Cyber Five ecommerce sales grew better than expected as consumers shopped for deals.
Spending favored household essentials over traditional holiday categories in 2022.
Holiday 2022 ecommerce traffic softened for many top retailers.
We expect a similar holiday consumer spending environment this year.
Holiday 2023 marketing strategies should adapt to a value-oriented environment.
Insider Intelligence Interviews
Sources
Media Gallery

authors

Andrew Lipsman

Contributors

Whitney Birdsall
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Sky Canaves
Senior Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Brian Lau
Forecasting Analyst
Natalie McGranahan
Senior Researcher and Taxonomy Manager
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