The news: US retail sales jumped 4.6% YoY and 1.4% MoM, as shoppers snapped up goods ahead of expected price hikes from tariffs, per the US Commerce Department.

• The monthly increase easily beat the 1.2% Dow Jones estimate and was well above February’s 0.2% gain—marking the biggest rise since January 2023.
• While stronger-than-expected retail sales often signal resilient consumers, this surge was driven by mounting uncertainty. With some tariffs already in place, others newly announced, and the looming specter of “Liberation Day,” many shoppers decided to buy in March before potential price hikes kicked in.

Car sales hit the gas: Consumers hurried to purchase vehicles ahead of the Trump administration’s 25% tax on imported cars, which took effect on April 3, and before further tariffs on auto parts arrive in May.

• Sales at auto lots soared 9.2% YoY and 5.7% MoM, thanks to steep automaker incentives and dealers urging buyers to lock in current prices.
• Nearly 1.56 million new vehicles were sold in March, per Cox Automotive—pushing the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) to 17.8 million. That’s the highest in four years, and nearly 2 million units above Cox’s forecast of 15.9 million. However, the forecast was released before the March 26 tariff announcement, which led shoppers to shift from a mentality of “better to wait” to “better buy now.”
• Cox expects strong sales until existing pre-tariff inventory runs low. It ultimately projects a slowdown later in the year, lowering its full-year sales forecast from 16.3 million to 15.6 million.

Shoppers spent strategically: Shoppers also appeared to pull spending forward in other categories likely to be hit hard by tariffs.

• Furniture sales jumped 7.7% YoY. The category is poised for price increases since more than half of all furniture in the US is imported, with Vietnam and China being the largest exporters. Even domestic manufacturers often rely on imported materials such as fabrics, hardware, and glass table tops, making them vulnerable to tariffs as well.
• Clothing and accessories sales rose 5.4% YoY. This sector is likely to feel the tariff pinch given that the vast majority—97%—of clothing and shoes sold in the US is imported, with China and Vietnam accounting for 54.1% of US apparel and footwear imports last year, per data from the US International Trade Commission.

Notably, spending at restaurants and bars climbed 4.8% YoY, suggesting that at least some consumers still feel confident enough to splurge on dining out—even amid broader uncertainty.

Our take: Given the steep drop in consumer sentiment and a likely surge in inflation, we expect US retail spending to slow over the coming months. Ecommerce may be hit particularly hard after President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs on China to 245% and announced plans to tighten regulations on de minimis imports from China and Hong Kong—moves that will likely dampen sales from Chinese-based sellers on online marketplaces operated by retailers like Amazon and Walmart, as well as reduce growth for platforms like Shein and Temu.

Go further: For a deeper dive into the wide-ranging implications of the Trump administration’s trade policies on brands, retailers, and media players, read our report, Impact of Tariffs on US Businesses