Amazon will increase its share of US ecommerce sales in five product categories next year, per our forecast. The biggest gains will be in health and personal care, furniture and home furnishings, and apparel and accessories.

From the explosion of ChatGPT to confusing economic indicators, the first quarter of 2023 has proven to be a mixed bag for retail. We break down major developments from the past few months and what they mean for the year ahead.

Total US retail return volume will reach $627.34 billion this year, a 2.2% increase YoY, according to our forecast. Some retailers are turning to return fees to make up for increased costs, but that’s a risky move that may end up alienating customers. Here are three alternatives to return fees, ranging from the short term (building out product descriptions and customer reviews) to the long term (creating a returns as a service offering).

First-party purchase data provides brands and sellers with the real-time insights needed to better understand consumer behavior and build loyalty without relying on third-party cookies. As a result, brands can build awareness, connect with consumers, drive sales, and foster seamless shopping experiences for shoppers.

Smaller retailers are gaining share and reshaping the ecommerce landscape, but will they be able compete with giants like Amazon?

If TikTok gets banned (and it’s a very big “if”), advertisers need to know where consumers will go. Instagram and YouTube would be likely beneficiaries, but OTT TV like Netflix could also see gains. Advertisers may even branch out to other categories entirely, like retail media. Here are five charts showing what could happen.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

Health and personal care will drive growth but won’t be enough to improve Amazon’s share of the overall US ecommerce market.

The rise of in-store retail media—through the digitization of surfaces in physical retail—will transform the store experience, the financial fortunes of retailers, and the advertising opportunities for brands.

Victoria’s Secret, Party City, and Lush Cosmetics are the newest retail partners DoorDash has added to its platform as it expands beyond restaurant delivery to offer customers on-demand delivery for alcohol, grocery, and convenience items.

This year, we forecast US off-premise alcohol retail sales (i.e., alcohol purchased for at-home consumption) will grow by a modest 3.5% to $178.20 billion. This growth will accelerate slightly through 2027, driven by three areas of opportunity within the industry: ecommerce, customers willing to splurge on premium beverages, and at-home consumption trends.

The retail space is changing rapidly as marketers experiment with things like retail media, generative AI, and social commerce. In this discussion, Zia Daniell Wigder, Chief Content Officer, Insider Intelligence, talks about the trends on her radar and what she learned at Shoptalk.

Despite the word “recession” hanging in the air, US retailers had an okay Q4 in 2022. But some recurring themes persisted: Shoppers pulled back on discretionary spending, opted against home renovations, and generally avoided high prices. Here’s a look at how those trends affected earnings.

By 2026, US spending on ecommerce channel ads—a large subset of retail media—will be more than triple its 2020 level, per our forecast. Within the ecommerce channel, both search and display advertising are growing rapidly.

US ecommerce growth will come from large retail categories with historically low online sales share. And growth will stay healthy even as traditional drivers of online sales take a backseat to emerging categories.

The labor market is extremely challenging for retailers and restaurants: Quit rates are on the rise, which is making it difficult for companies seeking to improve the customer experience.

At least 10% of US ecommerce orders were returned each week from last November through mid-January, according to Salesforce. The return rate was as high as 16% in some weeks, a significant increase over the previous holiday season.

In-store shopping remains the largest US retail channel by both share and dollars. Growth overall will decelerate as economic worries lead consumers to pull back on spending.