Venmo launched Venmo Stash, a bundled brand rewards system for users, per a press release. Cardholders can select handpicked bundles of their favorite brands—which include Uber, Lyft, Target, Walmart, and Sephora—to earn a flat 1% back on their purchases. Users can raise that rate to 2% by enabling auto-reloads to their wallets and 5% for adding at least $500 in direct deposits on Venmo each month. Injecting more choice into consumers’ rewards adds incentives to make a card top of wallet. Leaning into flexible rewards and card-linked offers can help secure younger consumers who are looking for value and functionality at checkout during economic uncertainty.

OpenAI’s push into commerce took a major step forward with the launch of in-app shopping on ChatGPT, though it will take time to gain traction as a meaningful retail sales channel.

Affirm’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased 42% YoY to $10.8 billion during its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended September 30, 2025). Healthy performance across its POS integrations and its debit card is key to why we forecast Affirm will remain the dominant US BNPL player against its chief competitor, Klarna, by a margin of $4.7 billion in US volume. While Affirm notched its second quarter of profitability at $81 million in net income, it’s going to need to widen its margins to compete with the rewards PayPal can offer consumers, such as 5% cash back on Pay Monthly loans.

Holiday shoppers are stressed and overwhelmed, per Accenture’s 19th Annual Holiday Shopping Survey. And this is leading to lower conversion rates: 85% of consumers are likely to abandon their carts due to frustration or indecision, according to the survey. To best meet customer needs quickly, retailers can partner with providers like Checkout.com on its one-click checkout solution Flow Remember Me or PayPal-owned Honey as it integrates AI-powered product recommendations based on users’ conversations with chatbots.

Fintechs, big tech, and payment players are using genAI to redefine finance. To compete, banks must pair strategic genAI investment with hyper-personalization and human support to earn customer trust and loyalty.

PayPal’s revenues grew 7% YoY to $8.4 billion in Q3 2025, driven by the success of branded experiences, PSP, and Venmo, per its earnings report. While PayPal notched a successful quarter, storm clouds are on the horizon. Basket sizes are shrinking and average order value is sinking, per PayPal CFO Jamie Miller. Leaning into payment flexibility and desirable rewards like cash back can help payment providers earn loyalty from squeezed middle- class consumers.

PayPal deepened its commitment to agentic AI with two new partnerships, per press releases. PayPal’s been bullish on agentic technologies. To date, it’s struck partnerships with Perplexity, Google, and now ChatGPT for AI-led conversational commerce. A tie-up with AI-powered Rokt brought post-transaction ads to Venmo, PayPal, and Honey users. Fintechs, issuers, and payment rails cannot ignore the coming tide of agent-based payment methods. Striking early partnerships with major players allows all platforms to reorient for the future of ecommerce transactions.

PayPal will use Rokt, an AI marketing service, to power its post-transaction advertisements for users in the US, per a press release. PayPal has for years tried to improve Venmo’s profitability, and post-transaction ads could help accomplish that without changing consumers’ retail checkout habits. However, one of FMNs key selling points to advertisers and consumers alike is trust. Platforms with FMNs should take care not to erode consumer trust—and down the line, loyalty—by pushing ads too aggressively too soon.

Forty percent of US adults have used AI as a shopping assistant in the past year, per a study by PayPal—and 77% of past or potential AI shoppers plan to use it while holiday shopping this year. Younger consumers are driving the change. Sixty-one percent of Gen Zers and 57% of millennials have used AI to assist with a purchase in the past year. The holiday season’s cheer has been dimmed. We lowered our forecast for November-December sales growth to 1.3% in light of tariffs and economic uncertainty. For merchants to compete amid that slowing spend, adopting AI is critical. To score the most volume from ecommerce-led sales, merchants need to make sure their partnerships with AI platforms prioritize mobile-first ecommerce: Mobile commerce will propel over 56.5% of holiday ecommerce sales, per retail mcommerce holiday forecast.

Albertsons Media Collective, Evan Hovorka, retail media, RMN, commerce media, omnichannel marketing, contextual advertising, data collaboration, clean rooms, LiveRamp Habu, The Trade Desk, Meta, Pinterest, DV360, performance marketing, campaign continuity, retail media standardization, creative innovation, measurement transparency, non-endemic brands, PayPal, digital out-of-home, CTV, shopper experience, brand storytelling, in-store media, performance optimization, KPI-driven campaigns, grocery retail, media maturity, Ad Week New York

Affirm announced 0% Days, a three-day promotion running from October 22-24 for eligible Affirm consumers, guaranteeing 0% interest and no late fees for shopping completed through the Affirm app or Affirm Card. Affirm’s inability to compete with rewards from either PayPal or card-linked installment plans may stymie its promotion’s success. If it can expand its merchant partnerships to offer better cash back at more in-demand retailers, Affirm may be able to win over consumers who may have otherwise chosen another provider for their seasonal shopping.

PayPal will make its Pay Monthly installment loans available in-store in the US ahead of the holiday season. For competing BNPL providers, PayPal’s rewards structure now far outstrips what most of them offer. Competitors should consider more strategic partnerships with desirable Gen Z and millennial brands to strike directly at the root of where young consumers are shopping, and cut deals with those merchants for more favorable cash back rewards.

PayPal’s Honey browser extension will start recommending products based on users’ conversations with chatbots, per a press release. Relying on the Honey browser extension rather than striking individual partnerships with each major AI platform is a far more expedient pathway to broaden Honey’s reach across AI-based shopping. And by keeping the selection and checkout processes squarely in the province of the user, Honey gets to reap the benefits of the rise in AI-enabled product discovery without the associated risks of agentic commerce.

BNPL payment value and user growth will decelerate in the coming years as the industry matures. But BNPL providers still have a big opportunity to grow their share of retail sales.​

Early Warning Services’ Zelle disclosed double-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth across critical segments during the first half of 2025, per a press release. With P2P’s absence in Zelle’s volume increase list, the platform holds firm hold on essential payments, but seemingly has failed to disrupt established use patterns among users who still differentiate between smaller transactions—Venmoing a friend back for coffee—and large, major payments, such as Zelle-ing a landlord monthly rent.

Google and PayPal ink multiyear partnership for commerce solution with a focus on agentic AI, per a press release. Google and PayPal’s surprising partnership reflects the ongoing scramble to secure the best positioning in the Wild West of AI development. All players want to have an early mover advantage; that can incentivize unlikely partnerships to avoid falling behind rapidly evolving technology.

PayPal will work with Nova Credit to broaden its underwriting process across its portfolio of consumer credit products, per a press release. PayPal’s current steps only broaden underwriting for US consumers. However, using Nova Credit internationally could open up even more lending opportunities in areas like Latin America and India, where there’s less access to traditional credit products.

The news: PayPal and Venmo users can receive early access to Perplexity’s new browser, Comet, with a free 12-month trial of Perplexity Pro. Our take: Big Tech is betting that agentic commerce is the future of shopping, but consumers aren’t on board yet: Nearly 70% of US adults are not interested in AI-powered shopping assistants, per a September 2024 EMARKETER and CivicScience survey. While jostling for future positioning in the market, PayPal, Venmo, and Perplexity need to convince consumers that agentic commerce is a desirable payment option, lest they repeat a metaverse investment flop.

US ad spend with financial media will reach over $600 millions this year, according to EMARKETER forecasts, but still represent a small fraction of the commerce media landscape. "This is a really nascent space. There aren't many players that make up this cohort of financial media networks (FMNs), and they represent a really diverse array of types of financial companies," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers."

The news: Mastercard has awarded WPP Media its $180 million media account after ending its relationship with Dentsu-owned Carat. Our take: WPP Media’s previous with PayPal may give insight into the type of media it might produce for Mastercard. As the creative firm behind the “Venmo Everything” campaign and the Will Ferrell-fronted PayPal Pay Later campaign, Mastercard’s new promos likely will feature zeitgeisty and generationally buzzy celebrities to target younger demographics.