Early Warning Services’ Zelle disclosed double-digit year-over-year (YoY) growth across critical segments during the first half of 2025, per a press release. With P2P’s absence in Zelle’s volume increase list, the platform holds firm hold on essential payments, but seemingly has failed to disrupt established use patterns among users who still differentiate between smaller transactions—Venmoing a friend back for coffee—and large, major payments, such as Zelle-ing a landlord monthly rent.

Google and PayPal ink multiyear partnership for commerce solution with a focus on agentic AI, per a press release. Google and PayPal’s surprising partnership reflects the ongoing scramble to secure the best positioning in the Wild West of AI development. All players want to have an early mover advantage; that can incentivize unlikely partnerships to avoid falling behind rapidly evolving technology.

PayPal will work with Nova Credit to broaden its underwriting process across its portfolio of consumer credit products, per a press release. PayPal’s current steps only broaden underwriting for US consumers. However, using Nova Credit internationally could open up even more lending opportunities in areas like Latin America and India, where there’s less access to traditional credit products.

The news: PayPal and Venmo users can receive early access to Perplexity’s new browser, Comet, with a free 12-month trial of Perplexity Pro. Our take: Big Tech is betting that agentic commerce is the future of shopping, but consumers aren’t on board yet: Nearly 70% of US adults are not interested in AI-powered shopping assistants, per a September 2024 EMARKETER and CivicScience survey. While jostling for future positioning in the market, PayPal, Venmo, and Perplexity need to convince consumers that agentic commerce is a desirable payment option, lest they repeat a metaverse investment flop.

US ad spend with financial media will reach over $600 millions this year, according to EMARKETER forecasts, but still represent a small fraction of the commerce media landscape. "This is a really nascent space. There aren't many players that make up this cohort of financial media networks (FMNs), and they represent a really diverse array of types of financial companies," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent episode of "Behind the Numbers."

The news: Mastercard has awarded WPP Media its $180 million media account after ending its relationship with Dentsu-owned Carat. Our take: WPP Media’s previous with PayPal may give insight into the type of media it might produce for Mastercard. As the creative firm behind the “Venmo Everything” campaign and the Will Ferrell-fronted PayPal Pay Later campaign, Mastercard’s new promos likely will feature zeitgeisty and generationally buzzy celebrities to target younger demographics.

The news: A coalition of major US banks is pushing for reforms to the recently enacted GENIUS Act. The banks are concerned that a loophole could give non-bank competitors advantages over more regulated traditional banks, per AInvest. Our take: The main challenge for traditional banks is that they have to compete on a new front with different rules. But it’s also a major risk to their customers, who could not only move their money over to competitors’ accounts—but also lose it. While a 4% reward rate is highly attractive and far exceeds most traditional savings account interest, these stablecoin holdings are not necessarily protected by FDIC insurance. Without this insurance, a platform failure could mean consumers lose their entire investment—a risk that does not exist with a federally insured bank deposit.

Real-time payments adoption is still in its infancy in the US. But business and consumer demand are increasing, providing a growth opportunity for banks and customer-facing payment providers.

The news: PayPal posted net revenue growth of 5% YoY at $8.3 billion due to strong performances of Venmo, its debit card, and Braintree, per its earnings report. Our take: PayPal is leaning into its branded experience and tech innovations to power its way through 2025.

The news: Publicis Groupe has won PayPal’s global media business, building on the holding company’s winning streak and proving to rivals that its momentum in securing major accounts shows no signs of slowing. WPP Media previously handled PayPal’s media account but resigned the account in April, citing the need to “pursue other opportunities,” per Ad Age. Our take: Publicis’ win of PayPal’s global media business underscores a growing advertiser shift toward integrated partnerships, where creative, media, and retail strategies merge to unlock greater performance and monetization potential.

The news: PayPal launched PayPal World, a global platform linking major international payment systems and digital wallets. Our take: While PayPal’s starting list of key partnerships represents Latin America, India, and China, the payment provider could penetrate further into European markets by tying up with the European Payments Initiative and the Wero wallet—as well as with top US wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay or the nascent Paze.

Our midyear report revisits the top trends we named in early 2025 to see what’s shaping the market, evolving fast, or fading in the rearview mirror.

The news: Despite global cuts in ad budgets, several companies are diving head-first into their own ad offerings to diversify revenues. HP is reportedly pitching HP Media Network, an ad network highlighting laptop and desktop ads. The move includes ads on HP computers and apps, offsite ads, placements in social and email campaigns, and a free ad-supported TV service. Our take: Introducing ad offerings isn’t necessarily a lost cause—but knowing how to position new ad products is key to succeeding in a time when advertisers are increasingly hesitant to invest without measurable results.

AI is upending every aspect of marketing, from neuro-contextual ads that read emotions to autonomous shopping agents that make purchasing decisions. As tech giants consolidate control of the sector, six pivotal trends are reshaping advertising, search, and commerce.

The news: Tech company Hewlett Packard (HP) is reportedly pitching HP Media Network, an ad network focused on laptop-targeted ads and desktop streaming, per Adweek. HP Media Network will sell ads that show up on HP computers and apps, and will promote its first-party data to give adtech firms access to offsite ads. Our take: HP’s launch could capitalize on growth in the desktop and laptop ad market—but the company needs to prove its offerings as distinctly beneficial compared with competitors, or risk falling victim to advertisers’ concerns over investing in new offerings as budgets are slashed.

Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.

The news: JPMorgan will charge fintechs fees to access its customers’ bank account information, per a report from Bloomberg. Our take: This fee regime would be a pivotal win for JPMorgan that would undoubtedly be emulated by other banks anxious to tap a new revenue stream.

The news: PayPal rolled out a dynamic, AI-powered scam alert system to protect consumers against fraud for “Friends and Family” transactions. Our take: Rolling out user-facing AI-powered fraud protection alerts increases PayPal’s visibility as a safe financial provider for more than just online checkout at well-known retailers.

The news: PayPal users can get 20% cash back on their Taco Bell orders if they check out with PayPal or Venmo in-app or online, per a press release. Our take: For Taco Bell enthusiasts, 20% cash back every week may be too good of an offer to refuse.

The news: PayPal partnered with the Big Ten and Big 12 conferences to enable payments for participating student-athletes. Our take: Capitalizing on young, emerging student consumers is a strong opportunity to secure long-time and loyal PayPal and Venmo users.