Inflation Trends & Statistics

EMARKETER offers market research, trends and statistics for a variety of topics and industries. Here you will find a collection of reports, articles and other resources for Inflation

UK holiday spending set to rise—but inflation could erase the gains

Article
Dec 17, 2025

UK holiday spending is expected to rise 3.5% this year, according to PwC, with average spending per shopper projected to increase 2.7%, driven in part by younger consumers planning to increase their budgets. Beneath the surface, however, the outlook is less robust. After accounting for inflation, sales volumes are likely to be flat or slightly negative, as most shoppers expect to spend the same amount as last year, and higher prices shape behavior. Tepid consumer confidence and rising living costs are pushing households to manage spending more carefully, a dynamic likely to carry over into 2026 and increase pressure on retailers to deliver clear value.

Agentic shopping, layoffs, and wearables give hints about Amazon's future

Article
Dec 11, 2025

Amazon's recent business moves, examining corporate layoffs, AI-powered shopping features, and new smart glasses technology for delivery workers paint an interesting view of its immediate future and what it could mean for consumers.

SMBs are shaping the future through technology, trust, and networks

SMBs are shaping the future through technology, trust, and networks

Article
Dec 05, 2025

LinkedIn released a report on the trends shaping small businesses in 2026, proving that technology, trust, and relationship building will be the pillars of success for small businesses in the years ahead. Despite the unique roadblocks small businesses face amid current macroeconomic conditions, success is possible for those who stay on top of emerging technologies, invest in their digital presence, and build professional relationships.

Marketer optimism drops as expectations of 2026 budget cuts surge

Article
Dec 04, 2025

Marketers are feeling less optimistic about business conditions for 2026 than they were a year ago, per a new WARC report. 54% of marketers believe that conditions will improve next year, down from 65% who felt this way about 2025. WARC’s forecast indicates that economic instability will continue causing marketers to adopt more conservative budgeting strategies and sharpen their focus on measurable, performance-driven advertising.

Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch lift FY outlooks amid resilient spending

Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch lift FY outlooks amid resilient spending

Article
Nov 25, 2025

A slate of retailers boosted their outlooks following strong Q3 performances, a positive sign as the industry heads into the most important shopping period of the year. Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Kohl's all updated their FY sales guidance, pointing to ongoing consumer resilience despite growing pessimism about the state of the economy and personal finances. The outlook for holiday spending is notably stronger than it appeared earlier this year: We expect sales in November and December to rise 3.6% YoY, slower than last year’s 4.4% growth but a significant upgrade from our May forecast.

Steady momentum: Holiday trends signal a season of cautious confidence

Article
Nov 20, 2025

Shoppers are spending about 10% more on gifts this year, even if they’re feeling less confident. New insights from PMG show how that mix of caution and momentum is shaping a holiday season built on smart pacing and steady engagement.

Latin America Digital Advertising Trends Survey 2025

Latin America Digital Advertising Trends Survey 2025

Report
Nov 13, 2025

Latin America’s digital ad market is transforming as new formats, channels, and players emerge. Understanding the market forces, challenges, and opportunities driving these shifts is key to staying competitive in this fast-evolving landscape.

Western Europe Grocery 2025​

Western Europe Grocery 2025​

Report
Nov 13, 2025

Grocery retail sales are robust, and ecommerce is gaining share as more people buy groceries online—making retail media a growing opportunity.​

The Supreme Court seems skeptical of Trump’s tariffs. But a ruling against the administration won’t mean normalcy returns

The Supreme Court seems skeptical of Trump’s tariffs. But a ruling against the administration won’t mean normalcy returns

Article
Nov 05, 2025

Several conservative Supreme Court justices voiced skepticism over President Donald Trump’s claim that emergency powers allow him to impose sweeping tariffs on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China. A ruling against Trump could reshape the already disrupted US retail sector, with nearly half of imports now under duties. Analysts warn that consumers are beginning to feel the strain, with inflation rising and spending slowing. While a legal setback may limit Trump’s options, his administration still has other trade tools available—ensuring that economic and policy uncertainty will continue well into next year.

Why EMARKETER upgraded its holiday forecast

Why EMARKETER upgraded its holiday forecast

Article
Oct 31, 2025

We expect US holiday sales to rise 3.6% in the final two months of the year, a slowdown from last year’s 4.4% gain, but much stronger than our May outlook, when we anticipated just 1.2% growth. The shift stems from consumers’ surprising resilience despite tariffs, inflation, and a softening labor market. Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon have reported steady demand, with tariffs adding only modest price pressures. However, spending remains uneven across income groups as higher earners benefit from wage and wealth gains. Retailers will need to emphasize affordability and value to attract cautious middle- and lower-income shoppers this season.

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Food manufacturers strike cautious tone as cost pressures mount and shoppers tighten budgets

Food manufacturers strike cautious tone as cost pressures mount and shoppers tighten budgets

Article
Oct 29, 2025

Rising costs and softening consumer demand led Kraft Heinz, Hormel, and Mondelez to cut their full-year outlooks, reflecting mounting pressure across the food industry. Hormel cited higher commodity costs and production setbacks, while Kraft Heinz and Mondelez reported slowing sales as inflation-weary shoppers traded down to cheaper or private-label options. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in months, and the looming SNAP benefit cutoff could further dampen spending. With costs climbing and value-conscious behavior spreading, food companies are being pushed to focus on efficiency and share preservation over aggressive growth.

High-profile layoffs at Target, GM, Nestle add to consumers’ bad vibes

High-profile layoffs at Target, GM, Nestle add to consumers’ bad vibes

Article
Oct 24, 2025

A new wave of layoffs is hitting corporate America, with major firms like Target, Nestlé, Starbucks, Amazon, Rivian, and GM announcing significant job cuts amid slowing consumer demand and rising costs. More than 946,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest since 2020, deepening economic uncertainty. With consumer sentiment at a five-month low and a government shutdown straining millions of workers, inflation and surging insurance premiums are adding pressure. Our take: cautious companies may inadvertently fuel the downturn they fear, amplifying anxiety across the broader economy.

The UK Personal Care and Beauty Consumer 2025

The UK Personal Care and Beauty Consumer 2025

Report
Oct 23, 2025

Our exclusive research reveals what factors are influencing the path to purchase for personal care and beauty products.

US CPG Industry Ad Spending Forecast 2025

US CPG Industry Ad Spending Forecast 2025

Report
Oct 22, 2025

Tariffs, inflation, and cost pressures are forcing CPG advertisers to tighten budgets and focus on ROI. As traditional media fades, digital—especially social—continues to capture more share despite slower overall growth.

Latin America Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Latin America Ecommerce Forecast 2025

Report
Oct 17, 2025

Retail ecommerce sales in Latin America will sustain double-digit growth this year, but momentum will remain uneven across major markets amid mounting geopolitical tensions.

Retailers’ use of AI is soaring. But that’s unlikely to drive significant layoffs.

Retailers’ use of AI is soaring. But that’s unlikely to drive significant layoffs.

Article
Oct 16, 2025

AI is rapidly becoming central to retail operations, with 45% of organizations using AI tools daily and nearly all planning to sustain or increase investments next year, according to an Amperity survey. While fears of mass job losses have yet to materialize, ongoing economic pressures—including weak consumer sentiment, rising inflation, and a softening labor market—are driving a surge in layoffs. As companies turn to AI to boost efficiency and manage costs, the challenge lies in balancing automation with the human expertise needed to navigate uncertain times.

Dollar Tree expects steady growth through 2028

Article
Oct 15, 2025

Dollar Tree projected earnings per share to grow up to 15% annually over the next three years, boosted by operational efficiencies and the absence of recent one-off costs. The retailer reaffirmed Q3 guidance for 3.8% comparable-store sales growth and expects a high-teens EPS increase in fiscal 2026. With more affluent shoppers trading down amid inflation, Dollar Tree’s recent Family Dollar divestiture sharpens its focus on the core brand. Its growth strategy emphasizes value, convenience, and an expanded price mix—but long-term success will hinge on elevating the in-store experience for higher-income customers.

Government data disruptions leave retailers with limited economic visibility

Government data disruptions leave retailers with limited economic visibility

Article
Oct 10, 2025

With most official data still paused, private sources like ADP, Carlyle, and the NRF are shaping the economic picture ahead of the holidays—and it’s showing signs of strain. Retail sales rose 5.4% YoY in September but slipped month to month, while high earners kept spending as middle- and low-income households pulled back. Hiring has weakened, confidence remains muted, and Moody’s Analytics warns that nearly half of US states face recession risk. The evidence points to a slowing consumer sector and a holiday season defined by cautious spending and heightened competition.

Prescription drug prices are increasing at slower rates than housing and food costs

Article
Oct 07, 2025

Prescription drug prices along with other healthcare costs like hospital services and nursing homes, are growing faster than overall inflation, but slower than consumer costs like housing, food, and coffee, per GoodRx Research’s latest data. Pharma marketers need to use empathy to connect with the growing group of underinsured consumers. They should be transparent about prices and acknowledge the frustration consumers feel around the complexity of the US healthcare and insurance system. Proactively highlight help offered for consumers like financial assistance, savings tools, and patient support programs.

Consumers look to cut holiday spending as living costs rise

Article
Oct 02, 2025

Consumers are approaching the holiday season with restraint: 27% of US adults expect to spend less from October to December, while 22% spend more, per a July survey from Experian and ad platform GroundTruth. Discounters and value-oriented retailers should be well-positioned to draw holiday sales from consumers. Still, retailers chasing growth during the make-or-break holiday season will need to drive and reward value-seeking behavior. That means their marketing must be aligned with shopping behaviors. Messaging should spotlight value and affordability. Marketing campaigns should be stretched across the extended shopping season, not just concentrated on big events like Black Friday. Promotions and loyalty perks should be used to reward value seekers.

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