The data picture: While the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled limited staff to release September’s Consumer Price Index, most official data collection remains on hold.

• That’s leading many to turn to private sources—from payroll processor ADP to investment firm Carlyle and the National Retail Federation—to get a sense of the broader macro landscape.
• Each of those sources offer only partial clues about the economy’s direction. Carlyle’s data, for instance, draws from its 277 portfolio companies employing 730,000 workers, while the NRF’s Retail Monitor relies on anonymized credit and debit card transactions from Affinity Solutions, unlike the Census Bureau’s surveys.

As retailers enter the crucial holiday season, they face an incomplete view of consumer demand, even as the latest figures point to rising financial strain on most households.

The available numbers:

• Retail sales rose in September, but some indicators suggest slowing momentum. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that total sales (excluding autos and gasoline) rose 5.4% YoY but slipped 0.66% MoM. Core retail sales—excluding restaurants as well—were up 5.7% YoY and down 0.49% MoM, echoing Bank of America Institute data showing a 0.5% monthly drop in spending. That spending is heavily concentrated among higher earners: Expenditures by high-income households rose 2.6%, compared with 1.6% for middle-income and just 0.6% for low-income consumers.
• The labor market also shows signs of strain. Reports from Carlyle and ADP suggest hiring has weakened and momentum is fading as economic uncertainty builds. Carlyle’s portfolio data show a modest gain of 17,000 jobs in September, while ADP reports private employers cut 32,000 positions.
• Consumers remain uneasy. Confidence remains muted amid broader economic unease. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October survey showed little change from September, but concerns over high prices and weakening job prospects persist, and most expect inflation to stay elevated for the foreseeable future. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, released at the end of September, also declined on a sharp deterioration in views of business and labor conditions, while expectations have stayed below recession-warning levels for eight consecutive months.

A broader view: With gold-standard government data still largely unavailable, a new Moody’s Analytics analysis offers one of the few comprehensive snapshots of the economy.

• Based on data through August, it finds that 22 states are either in or at high risk of recession, driven by slowing immigration, rising tariffs, and federal job cuts. (Click here for a deeper dive into what a recession would mean for advertising, commerce, and financial services.)
• The findings reinforce private-sector signals of a slowing economy, suggesting that regional softness may be spreading nationwide.

Our take: Together, the available indicators point to a consumer sector under pressure and an economy losing momentum heading into a holiday season that was already expected to be challenging, with our forecast calling for just 1.2% YoY growth.

Spending remains positive but uneven across income groups, with high earners continuing to spend freely on discretionary purchases while middle- and lower-income consumers tighten their belts. This widening gap suggests retailers targeting more price-sensitive shoppers will need to double down on value, sharpen their promotions, and lean on loyalty programs to capture increasingly cautious demand.

Go further: Read our Holiday Shopping 2025 report.