Anxiety around inflation, a deteriorating labor market, and trade war consequences have deepened consumer uncertainty about the US economy, with wide-ranging implications for retail.

Companies waste no time hiking prices: The cost of everything from coffee to video game consoles to sexual wellness products is going up, which will prompt shifts in consumer spending habits.

Core inflation rose 0.1% MoM in March, the lowest rate in four years: But that relief is likely to be short-lived as Amazon, AutoZone, Best Buy, and others warn of price hikes ahead.

While banks aren’t directly paying tariffs, they face a combination of other threats.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US—along with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Trump hikes tariffs on China, pauses higher reciprocal tariffs on others: We expect US retail sales growth to slow due to the broader impact of his trade policies.

Consumers became more cautious with their spending, a trend that could worsen with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

Tariff escalation heightens recession fears: EMARKETER's forecasting team analyzes the economic disruption from Trump’s new trade policies.

Trump’s tariffs fuel ad industry pullback: Marketers are cutting budgets and ad growth projections fall sharply as inflation and trade uncertainty rise.

In our exclusive survey with ESW, data from shoppers in 18 countries reveals new twists in the path to purchase, the rising momentum of marketplaces, and the resilience of age-old fundamentals.

Latin America’s digital revolution is marching full steam ahead, with consumers spending more than a third of their day online. As social commerce and retail media propel the region’s digital economy to new heights, the runway for growth remains long.​

Travel holds up amid headwinds: Consumers continue to prioritize trips, aiding hotel performance and expansion.

Egg prices are up, and so are consumers’ concerns about affording groceries amid rising cases of avian flu, inflation, and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Here’s how grocery shopping may change in the year ahead and what retailers need to know.

Inflation accelerated in January: Rising prices of eggs, chocolate, and other goods keep costs in the spotlight, potentially squeezing discretionary spending and pressuring retailers.

Though Trump did as he promised, many banking customers are on edge.

This deck provides critical data to help retailers benchmark their own retail sales against the wider market.

A lot happens in a week, so every Friday we're going to analyze all the new data and provide you with some of the key takeaways. Welcome to the Friday 5.

With the holiday season in the rearview mirror, our analysts are already looking ahead to what the rest of this year—including the 2025 holiday season—will look like. This year will be defined by unpredictability, as President Trump begins his second term during a time of mixed consumer sentiments. Here are four trends our analysts expect will continue in 2025.

Solid December sales cap a year of healthy retail growth: But 2025 could be a different story, as tariff concerns keep all but the wealthiest consumers from spending freely.