On today’s podcast episode, we discuss what we expect from consumer spending in Q2, the three scenarios we expect for total media (and digital) ad spending, and how marketers are reacting to everything. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Principal Forecasting Writer Ethan Cramer-Flood, and Senior Forecasting Analyst Zach Goldner. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.

Retail sales rose 5.2% YoY in April: But the gains mask a tough climate as consumers pulled forward purchases of tariff-sensitive items like home goods.

Inflation waned in April: But early signs of cost increases are emerging.

As US-imposed trade tariffs begin to take effect, business decision-makers and consumers are grappling with how to prepare—some more than others.

Consumers pulled back on dining out in Q1: Restaurant Brands faced headwinds but saw an April rebound, while Krispy Kreme is changing course to regain momentum.

SNAP rollbacks could shrink grocery baskets and curb discretionary spend: With household spending already under strain, further benefit cuts risk triggering a broader pullback in consumer demand.

Marketers are cutting branding spend in favor of performance media: Search and retail win as caution dominates strategy.

US consumers will spend $3.2 billion on flowers this Mother’s Day: While NRF’s forecast is flat YoY, florists face tighter margins as tariffs drive up costs.

Toys are among the first cuts when consumers feel squeezed: Coupled with shifting tariff policies, that puts Mattel in a tough spot.

Inflation causes Gen Z shoppers to rethink when and where they shop: Growing financial strain is forcing shoppers to adjust their spending habits.

The Trump administration injects more uncertainty into supply chains with new ship fees: While less stringent than initially proposed, the levies will raise costs and complicate operations.

UK marketers cut budgets in Q1: Economic pressures and Trump’s trade moves spark shift to performance-focused tactics and short-term gains.

Brand loyalty membership is rebounding in the UK as shoppers turn to loyalty programs for savings. Supermarkets are driving innovation, but there is space for brands and retailers of all sizes to boost revenues and forge stronger customer connections.

Anxiety around inflation, a deteriorating labor market, and trade war consequences have deepened consumer uncertainty about the US economy, with wide-ranging implications for retail.

Companies waste no time hiking prices: The cost of everything from coffee to video game consoles to sexual wellness products is going up, which will prompt shifts in consumer spending habits.

Core inflation rose 0.1% MoM in March, the lowest rate in four years: But that relief is likely to be short-lived as Amazon, AutoZone, Best Buy, and others warn of price hikes ahead.

While banks aren’t directly paying tariffs, they face a combination of other threats.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US—along with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Trump hikes tariffs on China, pauses higher reciprocal tariffs on others: We expect US retail sales growth to slow due to the broader impact of his trade policies.

Consumers became more cautious with their spending, a trend that could worsen with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs