The reality: While there is no shortage of headlines focusing on a retail sales slowdown in April, they don’t tell the full story.

• Retail sales rose 5.2% YoY, matching the growth rate seen in March, per the US Commerce Department. The exact figures can vary slightly depending on how segments are categorized—excluding autos, for example, April sales were up 4.2% YoY, a modest dip from 4.4% in March.
• The sharper contrast comes in the MoM comparison. Retail sales increased just 0.1% MoM in April, a significant slowdown from the 1.7% gain recorded in March. That March jump stemmed from consumers beginning to pull forward purchases of tariff-sensitive items like furniture and home goods.

Zooming out: Looking at the year-to-date numbers, retail sales are up 3.8% YoY, and core retail sales—which excludes auto, gas, and restaurant purchases—are up a fairly normal 3.7% YoY.

• But those topline figures mask a highly atypical retail environment, where trade policy uncertainty is shaping how both consumers and retailers behave.
• Consumers have accelerated purchases in categories likely to be affected by tariffs. Furniture and home furnishings sales are up 6.2%, while auto sales have climbed 6.3% year to date.
• Retailers are also rushing to front-load inventory to get ahead of tariffs—but that strategy isn’t without risk. Effective forecasting is critical, and when it misses the mark, the consequences can be costly. American Eagle Outfitters, for example, faced a $75 million inventory write-down after misjudging demand and being forced to discount heavily to clear unsold spring and summer merchandise.