Buy now, pay later (BNPL) volume hit new highs over the first half of the holiday season, including $747.5 million in online spending on Black Friday alone, an 8.9% YoY increase. Klarna reported Black Friday sales boosted its November volume 45% YoY, and PayPal said pre-Black Friday sales promotions lifted its BNPL volume by 23% YoY. The growth of BNPL volume signals alternate credit’s rising place in US consumer spending. The trend reflects both consumers’ financial strain and their continued willingness to spend, even if it means restructuring how they pay.

Klarna will launch its own stablecoin, KlarnaUSD, per a press release. The Swedish fintech is building KlarnaUSD on Stripe’s Open Issuance powered by Bridge, making it the first neobank to release a token on the platform. To execute this future, firms need to educate consumers on the nature of stablecoins versus other digital currencies, which historically have experienced dramatic price volatility. By assuring consumers that stablecoins are backed by fiat, payment providers have a greater chance of convincing shoppers to convert to crypto.

Block will pilot a real-time credit scoring model called Cash App Score, per a press release. Users’ Cash App Scores are based on financial behaviors within the Cash App ecosystem: deposit frequency, spending habits, savings activity, and repayment history, and other metrics. Cash App’s micro loans have acted as a proof of concept for its proprietary underwriting model, which it now likely wants to expand into larger-value (and more lucrative) lending. Giving consumers a visible—and highly manipulable—score can boost loan value and overall engagement.

Lloyds Banking Group will acquire Curve, a London-based digital wallet. Acquiring Curve is a valuable first step toward embracing digital wallet payments solutions. However, Lloyds faces a challenge of incentivizing its users to choose Curve over competitors like PayPal and Klarna, which have established rewards systems. Embedding features and perks into Curve could help create a flywheel effect to trap more volume within its ecosystem.

Klarna’s revenues soared 28% YoY to $903 million, per its Q3 2025 earnings report. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) jumped 23% YoY, powered by strength in the US—where GMV cracked 43% growth YoY. Interest-bearing US loans accounted for over 244% of US GMV growth. Klarna’s blueprint for US consumers is connecting—for now. Younger, credit-averse consumers may be drawn to the Klarna Card’s debit-forward approach, but it still lacks a rewards structure compelling enough to pull consumers away from credit cards. While its membership rewards model did net 1 million signups in less than a month, issuers still face little threat from this card unseating their offerings.

PayPal’s Pay Later is soaring in popularity, with 56% of US buy now, pay later (BNPL) customers having used its installment services—outstripping industry leaders Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay, per a Lending Tree survey. PayPal’s dominance is likely to stick unless BNPL competitors can expand their offerings' acceptance at the point of sale. Continuing to push BNPL-enabled debit cards and merchant partnerships may help to secure loyalty from Gen Zers and young parents seeking these financing options.

Affirm’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased 42% YoY to $10.8 billion during its fiscal Q1 2026 (ended September 30, 2025). Healthy performance across its POS integrations and its debit card is key to why we forecast Affirm will remain the dominant US BNPL player against its chief competitor, Klarna, by a margin of $4.7 billion in US volume. While Affirm notched its second quarter of profitability at $81 million in net income, it’s going to need to widen its margins to compete with the rewards PayPal can offer consumers, such as 5% cash back on Pay Monthly loans.

U.S. Bank launched the Split World Mastercard, a credit card that puts every transaction on an installment plan, per a press release.U.S. Bank wants to capitalize on consumer demand for both card-linked installments and BNPL cards. It’s a play specifically for Gen Zers, who tend to gravitate toward installments. These younger consumers can also use the card as a credit-building tool, a sought-after feature. But the Split Card may be a tough sell to prospects.

AI is reshaping how payment providers attract, serve, and retain customers. Those who act now to integrate AI across the life cycle—from discovery to checkout to support—will gain an edge, while those who wait risk losing loyalty and control.

Amazon is cutting 14,000 roles from its corporate workforce as it reshapes its organization to prepare for an agentic AI future. The layoffs are unusual for a company still posting strong growth, but Amazon framed them as part of a broader move to gain efficiencies from genAI. While most retailers have thus far refrained from citing AI as a reason for mass layoffs, that could change as tariff pressures and other headwinds force companies to cut costs—and headcount—where possible.

Klarna debuted a two-tiered membership program, per a press release. larna’s second stab at a rewards membership program may prove more fruitful. This places the onus on competitors like Affirm, Sezzle, Cash App Afterpay, and PayPal to respond in kind. Offering better rewards is one way to stand out: PayPal’s Pay Later offered an untouchable 5% back during a holiday promotional period. While platforms could mimic Klarna’s membership program, BNPL providers could also expand promotional 0% interest windows, like Affirm’s latest offer, to sway young consumers who view installment loans as safer than revolving credit.

Splitit partnered with DXC Technology, enabling affiliated banks to offer installment options at checkout for their consumers, per a press release. Expanding BNPL availability during the upcoming holiday season will be critical. In order to capture consumers’ limited spending, issuers should broaden financing options to make gift-buying more manageable and interest-free, especially for consumers with children, who are more likely to use BNPL options than any other demographic besides millennials at 46.7%, per a PYMNTS study.

Affirm called for a cap on late fees in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry, per the Financial Times. BNPL platforms have an opportunity to gain customer loyalty through advertising—and practicing—transperant lending practices. Alternative lenders that operate with clear terms can get more consumers to select BNPL financing over revolving credit, especially when young consumers choose the payment method out of perceived safety over credit cards.

Klarna rolled out Klarna balance and Klarna Card in the UK. Credit cards aren’t as big a market in the UK as they are in the US, but issuers should be concerned by what Klarna calls its “balances.” Klarna is a real bank in the EU and recently was granted an Electronic Money Institution license in the UK. That means even without getting a bank charter in the UK—or the US for that matter—it can use its existing bank infrastructure to offer a robust suite of bank-like services in the style of Cash App or even Apple Wallet.

Klarna partnered with Qatar Airways, bringing installment plans to checkout for the gulf state airline in 17 European markets. The winning formula for BNPL platforms may be strategic partnerships with airlines without a branded credit card live in certain markets. Qatar holds a branded credit card offering in the US, where it likely encourages US consumers to spend on its card. European consumers, on the other hand, can’t access that credit product, giving Klarna an opportunity to fill that gap for fliers. With this vacuum, BNPL providers can reap the benefit of not having to directly compete against credit cards’ rewards packages.

Visa launched the Trusted Agent Protocol, infrastructure meant to facilitate secure communication between AI agents and merchants to complete transactions, per a press release. Fully operationalized agentic commerce will take time to get off the ground. However, Visa’s endorsement of agentic commerce demands reluctant AI-adopters to quickly gear themselves for a new age of payment facilitation, or face irrelevance. Major payment rails especially need to convince merchants not to abandon their infrastructure to pursue things like blockchain-based transactions, as major retailers like Walmart and Amazon try to save money on fees. Offering seamless agentic commerce can entice these retailers to stay loyal.

Klarna and Splitit are pursuing AI initiatives to keep their products top-of-mind for consumers, per press releases. Klarna partnered with Google Cloud to power AI-backed hyperpersonalized marketing campaigns. Splitit debuted its Agentic Commerce Partner Program, bringing card-linked buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans to agent-powered shopping. Replacing human created art with AI generated images is a risky play for marketing, but Splitit’s BNPL angle with agentic commerce may help it establish a foothold in the installment plan arena, especially when tied to shoppers’ preferred cards that they trust and earn rewards.

PayPal will make its Pay Monthly installment loans available in-store in the US ahead of the holiday season. For competing BNPL providers, PayPal’s rewards structure now far outstrips what most of them offer. Competitors should consider more strategic partnerships with desirable Gen Z and millennial brands to strike directly at the root of where young consumers are shopping, and cut deals with those merchants for more favorable cash back rewards.

AI shopping assistants are boosting discovery and personalization, but trust issues and fulfillment challenges could limit their impact on channel migration.

Bolt launched a super app, named SuperApp, that combines payments, banking, crypto trading, rewards, and shopping, per a press release. For the select few crypto-forward consumers, Bolt’s crypto reach across 40+ cryptocurrencies could be attractive but there’s not much differentiating it from fintechs that already offer crypto services, like PayPal or Cash App.