The 2022 holiday season’s solid retail sales gains were mostly attributable to inflation, but they nevertheless paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the 2023 holiday season.

It won’t get much better than low single digits going forward. The next few years will see low growth by historic standards but not to a disastrous extent.

Forty-four percent of US adults plan to spend their normal amount on health and beauty products this year, according to a MetaPack survey. More than two-thirds said they’re not changing their spending on apparel (39%) or on DIY and gardening (34%).

Consumers kept spending even as inflation ticked up in January: That’s likely to push the Fed to keep raising interest rates, which is why retailers have modest expectations for the year ahead.

They were aided by high interest rates and low loan delinquencies. But this year, the effects from persistent inflation and the failed mini-budget still lurk.

They’re becoming delinquent on auto loans and credit card payments at a faster rate than older generations, raising questions about what’s normal and what’s troubling.

Ecommerce sales worldwide grew at the slowest rate on record in 2022. Although 2023 is in line for a rebound, it won’t be a major spike. The era of annual double-digit booms is over, but several countries will still produce standout growth.

UK food price inflation is hitting record highs—but grocery sales are flat. Faced with rising bills, consumers are changing shopping habits to keep spending in check.

Inflation hasn’t made a dent in travel demand: Airbnb, Marriott, and United all reported strong Q4 earnings despite higher prices for airfare and lodging.

Inflation is changing anxious consumers’ financial goals. Banks can play a big role in helping them feel supported.

Inflation in the UK is easing but remains near a 40-year high. That’s tamping down consumer spending across all categories—with total retail sales set to grow by just 1.7% in 2023, versus a pre-pandemic growth rate of around 4%.

Advertisers and marketers can’t afford to waste budget, so we foresee a partial shift away from display ads and renewed emphasis on search—with one big exception, retail media.

Amazon seems poised to beat its lowered expectations: While the retail giant predicted its slowest-ever holiday season growth, analysts expect the retail giant’s Q4 sales still rose 6% YoY.

Grocers are less willing to put up with price hikes as inflation eases: Whole Foods is the latest retailer to ask suppliers to lower prices to relieve pressure on consumers.

The card network’s gross payment volume increased 8% YoY during Q4, but it anticipates a slowdown in revenue growth this quarter.

We expect retail sales growth to slow to 2.9% this year: That pullback in spending is leading retailers to cut staff to protect their bottom lines.

Search ads and retail media to aid Western Europe advertisers: Economic uncertainty to bolster use of ad channels that can deliver solid returns in 2023.

Consumers expect to spend nearly 10% more on Valentine’s Day this year: And nearly one-third plan to give the gift of an experience, the highest share ever.

As consumers balance the cost of necessities with the desire to splurge, secondhand luxury is a sweet spot, giving shoppers a way to treat themselves without breaking the bank. The category, which was valued at €43 billion ($45.21 billion) in 2022, will continue to grow, driven by cost-conscious and sustainability-minded consumers.

See our latest industry KPIs for retail media.