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EMARKETER

UK Retail and Ecommerce Sales Forecast by Category 2023

Expect Slow Growth as the Cost-of-Living Crisis Continues

Report by Carina Perkins  |  Feb 14, 2023
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Report
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales are flatlining as inflation takes its toll.
Consumer spending growth will be stymied across all categories.
Ecommerce growth will be slower than previously expected.
Digital will slightly outpace brick-and-mortar.
Food and beverage ecommerce sales will rebound as inflation pushes up prices.
Textile, clothing, and footwear ecommerce will remain robust despite higher prices.
Health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce gets a boost from the ‘lipstick effect.’
Online sales of household goods will suffer while big-ticket spending remains on hold.
What should retailers and brands do next?
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Inflation in the UK is easing but remains near a 40-year high. That’s tamping down consumer spending across all categories—with total retail sales set to grow by just 1.7% in 2023, versus a pre-pandemic growth rate of around 4%.
Topics
Retail Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales
UK
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales are flatlining as inflation takes its toll.
Consumer spending growth will be stymied across all categories.
Ecommerce growth will be slower than previously expected.
Digital will slightly outpace brick-and-mortar.
Food and beverage ecommerce sales will rebound as inflation pushes up prices.
Textile, clothing, and footwear ecommerce will remain robust despite higher prices.
Health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce gets a boost from the ‘lipstick effect.’
Online sales of household goods will suffer while big-ticket spending remains on hold.
What should retailers and brands do next?
Sources
Media Gallery

Executive Summary

High food and energy bills will squeeze UK consumers’ budgets in 2023, reducing their overall retail and ecommerce spending. Online sales will also be hampered by the return to stores as shoppers revert to pre-pandemic behaviors.

Key Question: What’s the outlook for UK retail and ecommerce sales in 2023, and how will the different categories fare?

UK Retail Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2019-2026 (% change)
E-Mail ChartDownload

KEY STAT: After falling for the first time ever in 2022, ecommerce sales will rebound by 2.3% this year. But sales growth will remain below pre-pandemic levels as the cost-of-living crisis constrains consumer spending.

Here’s what’s in the full report

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8charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Retail sales are flatlining as inflation takes its toll.
  3. Consumer spending growth will be stymied across all categories.
  4. Ecommerce growth will be slower than previously expected.
  1. Digital will slightly outpace brick-and-mortar.
  2. Food and beverage ecommerce sales will rebound as inflation pushes up prices.
  3. Textile, clothing, and footwear ecommerce will remain robust despite higher prices.
  4. Health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce gets a boost from the ‘lipstick effect.’
  1. Online sales of household goods will suffer while big-ticket spending remains on hold.
  2. What should retailers and brands do next?
  3. Sources
  4. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

UK Retail Ecommerce vs. Non-Ecommerce Sales Growth, 2019-2026 (% change)UK Total Retail Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £ and % change)
How Has Our UK Retail Ecommerce Sales Forecast Changed?, 2021-2024 (billions of £)UK Textile, Clothing, and Footwear Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £, % change, and % of category retail sales)
UK Household Goods Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £, % change, and % of category retail sales)UK Retail Sales, by Product Category, 2022 & 2023 (billions of £)
UK Food and Beverage Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £, % change, and % of category retail sales)UK Health, Personal Care, and Beauty Retail Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2025 (billions of £, % change, and % of category retail sales)
Download
Report
The One-Pager
Deck
Share
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales are flatlining as inflation takes its toll.
Consumer spending growth will be stymied across all categories.
Ecommerce growth will be slower than previously expected.
Digital will slightly outpace brick-and-mortar.
Food and beverage ecommerce sales will rebound as inflation pushes up prices.
Textile, clothing, and footwear ecommerce will remain robust despite higher prices.
Health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce gets a boost from the ‘lipstick effect.’
Online sales of household goods will suffer while big-ticket spending remains on hold.
What should retailers and brands do next?
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Inflation in the UK is easing but remains near a 40-year high. That’s tamping down consumer spending across all categories—with total retail sales set to grow by just 1.7% in 2023, versus a pre-pandemic growth rate of around 4%.
Topics
Retail Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales
UK
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Retail sales are flatlining as inflation takes its toll.
Consumer spending growth will be stymied across all categories.
Ecommerce growth will be slower than previously expected.
Digital will slightly outpace brick-and-mortar.
Food and beverage ecommerce sales will rebound as inflation pushes up prices.
Textile, clothing, and footwear ecommerce will remain robust despite higher prices.
Health, personal care, and beauty ecommerce gets a boost from the ‘lipstick effect.’
Online sales of household goods will suffer while big-ticket spending remains on hold.
What should retailers and brands do next?
Sources
Media Gallery

authors

Carina Perkins

Contributors

Suzy Davidkhanian
Principal Analyst, Retail & Ecommerce
Blake Droesch
Analyst
Jasmin Ellis
Forecasting Analyst
Bill Fisher
Principal Analyst, UK
Angela Kim
Senior Researcher
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