US ecommerce marketplaces will account for $384.57 billion in sales this year, a growth of 10.2% over 2022, according to our forecast. That growth will accelerate through the end of our forecast period in 2027, at which point sales will surpass $600 billion. “Amazon has really written the playbook for operating a successful marketplace in the US,” said our analyst Sky Canaves. Here’s a closer look at how the three biggest US ecommerce marketplaces stack up.

Some 22% of beauty retail sales worldwide will take place online this year, the most of any sales channel, per McKinsey. Physical specialty stores, such as Sephora and Ulta Beauty, will come in a close second (20%), while department stores will rank last (8%).

Younger consumers and higher-income shoppers are powering Walmart’s grocery growth while its physical footprint gives it an edge in retail media. Its burgeoning logistics business could be the next big thing for the retailer—and its bottom line.

Inflation for pet food and services was over 10% in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the category has won a reputation of being somewhat recession-proof, thanks to its necessity for pet owners. “People will be spending more on the pets that they have already, despite the fact that it’s been a relatively inflation-wary populous,” said our analyst Jeremy Goldman on a recent episode of our “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail” podcast.

Digital D2C disruptors, like Peloton and Casper, will bring in about $100 billion less in US ecommerce sales than the $134.55 billion of their established counterparts this year, according to our forecast.

Close to a third of US digital buyers will purchase from a company located outside the country in 2024, for a total of 71.8 million cross-border ecommerce buyers, per our forecast.

Amazon sits at the top of US ecommerce, accounting for 37.6% of sales this year, according to our forecast. In addition to generating billions of dollars in sales, Amazon’s ecommerce business propels its other ventures, including retail media and B2B ecommerce. By harnessing the power of generative AI, Amazon could leave its retail competition even further in the dust, and possibly catch up to the Google and Meta duopoly.

Evolving consumer behavior and easing regulations are opening new pathways for long-term growth.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss why Ikea has fallen behind on ecommerce, what to expect from its new store formats, and how the company developed its cult-like following. Then, for "Pop-Up Rankings," we rank Ikea's top four biggest challengers. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Carina Perkins and Zak Stambor.

“If you want to dominate the digital landscape, you’ve got to win or be a clear leader on the three core pillars: media, advertising, and commerce,” our analyst Andrew Lipsman said during our recent “Attention!” summit.

Social media and TV are the top channels that consumer packaged goods (CPG) consumers use to find new products, but in-store still plays an important role in product discovery. Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart are fighting to capture share of CPG product searches, though in-store consumers are more likely to turn to Google for help.

Data security is the most important feature to adults worldwide when deciding whether to transact with a business online, according to TransUnion. An easy payment process is the second most important, followed by ease of login or authentication.

The 15 biggest US ecommerce players aren’t a surprise (here’s looking at you, Amazon, Walmart, and Apple). User-friendly mobile apps, quick delivery, innovation, and converting sales are what turn retailers into ecommerce powerhouses. Here are the companies our analysts believe best exemplify those features within the 15 largest ecommerce players.

Internet use is growing the fastest in the Middle East and Africa, where about 80 million more people will go online at least once per month between 2023 and 2027, according to our forecast. Roughly 60% of the global population will use the internet regularly.

Alibaba and JD.com, China’s other ecommerce giants, never gained substantial traction in the US, partly due to their lack of spending to acquire customers. US-based Wish spent heavily on digital ads and rode the pandemic-driven ecommerce boom to an IPO—but has since lost its way.

To survive the era of subscription fatigue, brands and retailers need to invest in models that bring customers value and convenience.

Gen Zers are flocking to emerging payment methods, but card-based options, led by debit cards, remain supreme. Payment providers must align offerings with Gen Z’s preferences now as their spending power grows.