We expect US holiday sales to rise 3.6% in the final two months of the year, a slowdown from last year’s 4.4% gain, but much stronger than our May outlook, when we anticipated just 1.2% growth. The shift stems from consumers’ surprising resilience despite tariffs, inflation, and a softening labor market. Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon have reported steady demand, with tariffs adding only modest price pressures. However, spending remains uneven across income groups as higher earners benefit from wage and wealth gains. Retailers will need to emphasize affordability and value to attract cautious middle- and lower-income shoppers this season.

Retailers are accelerating “Holiday Cyber Creep,” launching deep discounts earlier than ever as competition for consumers’ limited holiday budgets intensifies. Ulta, Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Walmart have all unveiled October and early November promotions, extending the traditional Cyber Five into a months-long event. While early deals aim to capture cautious Gen Z and value-conscious shoppers, a new AlixPartners report warns that constant promotions are dulling their impact. That's forcing retailers to shift focus from nonstop discounts to standout experiences and personalized service to sustain engagement through the holiday season.

A new wave of layoffs is hitting corporate America, with major firms like Target, Nestlé, Starbucks, Amazon, Rivian, and GM announcing significant job cuts amid slowing consumer demand and rising costs. More than 946,000 job cuts have been announced this year, the highest since 2020, deepening economic uncertainty. With consumer sentiment at a five-month low and a government shutdown straining millions of workers, inflation and surging insurance premiums are adding pressure. Our take: cautious companies may inadvertently fuel the downturn they fear, amplifying anxiety across the broader economy.

AI adoption is accelerating faster than regulation, reshaping consumer behavior. Younger generations lead the charge for mainstream acceptance, forcing brands to navigate new risks and opportunities in AI-powered content.

Out-of-home (OOH) advertising is regaining cultural and commercial relevance as digital environments grow more synthetic and less trusted. OAAA’s Anna Bager and Vistar Media’s Lucy Markowitz told EMARKETER that OOH’s greatest advantage is its permanence—it’s “literally there.” As misinformation and algorithmic fatigue reshape consumer behavior, physical media has become a trust signal that can’t be faked or filtered. Modern OOH blends this credibility with interactivity, using 3D creative, AI-assisted design, and viral social moments to amplify campaigns beyond the street. For marketers, OOH isn’t just awareness—it’s proof of authenticity in an era of artificial everything.

Retail ecommerce sales in Latin America will sustain double-digit growth this year, but momentum will remain uneven across major markets amid mounting geopolitical tensions.

AI is rapidly becoming central to retail operations, with 45% of organizations using AI tools daily and nearly all planning to sustain or increase investments next year, according to an Amperity survey. While fears of mass job losses have yet to materialize, ongoing economic pressures—including weak consumer sentiment, rising inflation, and a softening labor market—are driving a surge in layoffs. As companies turn to AI to boost efficiency and manage costs, the challenge lies in balancing automation with the human expertise needed to navigate uncertain times.

Adobe Analytics projects US holiday ecommerce sales to grow 5.3% year over year to $253.4 billion, marking a sharp slowdown from last season’s 8.7% gain as higher prices and cautious consumer sentiment curb spending. Retailers are expected to mirror last year’s steep discounts, using strategic markdowns to entice shoppers toward higher-value purchases. At the same time, AI-powered shopping and social commerce are transforming buying behavior, with AI-driven traffic forecast to jump 520% and social sales up 51%, reshaping how consumers discover and decide what to buy.

The news: The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) lowered its 2025 US ad spending forecast from 7.3% growth to 5.7%, citing “macroeconomic pressures” and tariffs. What brands can do next: The most effective marketing strategies will vary dramatically across industries. Low-cost, high-ROI channels can squeeze the most out of limited budgets, but marketers shouldn’t underestimate the value of branding and loyalty.

The news: The latest actress generating buzz across Hollywood isn’t real. “Tilly Norwood,” an AI-generated persona created by Particle6, drew sharp critiques from Hollywood personalities and unions. Our take: Consumers still report a deep distrust of AI influencers. For now, partnering with corporeal influencers is the safer path for most brands.

Brands are testing the waters with AI-generated influencers as AI becomes a staple of advertising and everyday life. Telecommunications brand Vodafone is the latest to jump on the trend. Despite consumer hesitancy, AI is increasingly shaping the ad ecosystem, necessitating that advertisers take a balanced approach to leverage AI for its creative and operational potential without alienating consumers.

Peacock is striking partnerships to grow its audience: The streamer is now available via Walmart+, adding millions of potential viewers ahead of a crucial year.

Brands are finding growth in controversy. American Eagle added 700,000 new customers tied to its controversial Sydney Sweeney ad campaign and a Travis Kelce collaboration. The campaigns generated a combined 40 billion impressions, helping American Eagle bounce back from a difficult quarter. American Eagle’s strategy shows that controversy can reignite attention and that generating buzz can pay off. But smaller or inclusivity-minded brands must weigh the potential long-term cost of missteps.

Consumers are apprehensive about AI's overall impact on society, and are especially pessimistic about its effect on media. But increasing familiarity with the technology is also breeding trust.

US retail sales advanced in July as consumers took advantage of major sales events. However, signs are emerging that consumers are becoming more pessimistic as inflation expectations rise. With pressure from rising food prices, higher housing costs, and uncertainty about higher tariffs, consumers remain cost-conscious—and are wary about what’s ahead. Still, it’s clear that they’re willing to spend when they see clear value, providing a roadmap for retailers to capture sales.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and “stressed” consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year—a notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain—and are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the “Big Beautiful Bill” curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers’ purchasing decisions.

T-Mobile has announced a full rollback of its DEI programs as it seeks regulatory approval for two major deals, citing alignment with FCC expectations. The move eliminates all DEI language and infrastructure, signaling a dramatic reversal of the brand’s equity commitments. FCC Chair Brendan Carr applauded the shift, while critics warned of reputational risks—particularly with Gen Z and DEI-conscious consumers. As major brands reassess social strategies amid regulatory and political scrutiny, T-Mobile’s move may gain short-term approval but risks long-term brand damage. Marketers face a tough balancing act between political pragmatism and authentic social commitments.

The situation: The escalating US-Iran conflict threatens to unleash fresh headwinds for the retail industry, which is already under pressure from the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Our take: Uncertainty has loomed over the industry all year, making it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan ahead with the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Case in point: The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and there’s little clarity as to whether it will be extended or if the sweeping levies will take effect. The escalating US–Iran conflict only adds to the volatility, compounding the pressure on retailers. Together, these factors make it increasingly likely that the operating environment will remain murky for the remainder of the year.