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Retail & Ecommerce Earnings Q1 2025

US Policy Changes Shake Consumer Sentiment, Setting the Stage for a Tough Year

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Table of Contents

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sparked economic uncertainty, with new tariffs and recession fears prompting consumers to cut discretionary spending and stock up on goods they worried would rise in price amid increased trade tensions. Brands that focus on value and convenience are pulling ahead.

Key Question: What do Q1 2025 retail earnings tell us about how key retail segments are performing during a time of significant economic uncertainty?

Key Stat: Retail growth rates converged across key categories in Q1, with grocery, home improvement/furnishings, mass merchants, and off-price all rising between 3.7% and 4.7% YoY.

This report can help you:

  • Develop commerce strategies (retailers, brands, and agencies)
  • Stay informed about shifts in consumer spending patterns amid volatile market conditions (retailers, brands, and agencies)

Here’s what’s in the full report

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Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Trump’s economic agenda shifted consumer spending patterns in Q1
  3. Shoppers were laser-focused on value and values—and grocers delivered
  1. Home retailers lean on pros and ecommerce as housing slowdown pressures sales
  2. Mass merchants had a mixed Q1 as Target fell further behind Amazon and Walmart
  3. Off-price retailers bounce back following tough end to 2024
  1. Sources:
  2. Media Gallery

authors

Zak Stambor, Rachel Wolff

Contributors

Karen Jacobs
Oscar Orozco
Senior Director, Forecasting
Tyler Van Dyke
Brian Lau
Senior Forecasting Analyst
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