The trend: Holiday Cyber Creep is accelerating due to stiff competition for consumers’ limited holiday budgets—particularly among Gen Z—and a compressed window between Thanksgiving and Christmas. This dynamic is pushing retailers and brands to launch steep discounts even earlier than last year, when several major players ran promotions from the Thursday before Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—a stretch we called the Cyber Dozen.

The examples:

• Ulta Beauty wasted no time launching its “Early Black Friday Deals,” kicking off the first of its weekly promotions on makeup, skincare, body care, hair care, and fragrance on October 26. The discounts, which are as steep as 40%, run through November 22.
• Lowe’s is following close behind with an Early Black Friday sale running from October 30 to November 26. The retailer will then offer one-day, online-only deals on Thanksgiving, including early access to Doorbusters for MyLowe’s Rewards and MyLowe’s Pro Rewards members. On Black Friday, stores will open at 6am with Doorbusters available to all shoppers, followed by limited-time, online-only deals on Cyber Monday and weekly offers throughout December.
• Best Buy is taking a tongue-in-cheek approach this year, declaring, “We’re putting the creep in ‘holiday creep’ and officially kicking off the holiday shopping season on—you guessed it—Halloween, complete with can’t-miss DoorBOOsters!” The consumer electronics retailer will roll out early Black Friday deals from October 31–November 19, followed by its main Black Friday sale from November 20–29. It will then feature Cyber Sunday and Monday offers on November 30 and December 1, before closing out with last-minute savings from December 15–24.
• Walmart will host two Black Friday sales events. The first launches online at 7pm Eastern on November 13 for Walmart+ members and continues November 14–16 both online and in stores for all shoppers. The second kicks off at 7pm Eastern on November 24 for Walmart+ members, then runs online-only from November 25–27 before expanding to stores and online November 28–30. Walmart+ members will also receive early access to Cyber Monday deals at 7pm on Sunday, November 30, ahead of the public launch the following day.

How we got here: Black Friday emerged as a retail phenomenon in the 1980s, when stores slashed prices to draw crowds the day after Thanksgiving, which unofficially signaled the start of the holiday shopping season.

• As the internet gained steam in the early 2000s, retailers began to see a surge in online sales the Monday after Thanksgiving, as consumers took advantage of faster office internet connections to shop online. By 2005, the National Retail Federation coined “Cyber Monday,” driving retailers to promote sales around the day. (We discussed the origins of Cyber Monday on a 2022 episode of “Reimagining Retail.”)
• About a decade ago, retailers expanded their promotions across the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. That window reached its height in 2019, when it accounted for 20% of total holiday ecommerce sales.
• In the years since—especially during the pandemic—retailers have pushed the holiday season earlier and earlier, driven by supply chain concerns and fears of late deliveries.

Although the Cyber Five’s share of total holiday sales has slipped, the period remains a cornerstone of the shopping calendar, representing 16.3% of holiday ecommerce sales. We expect Black Friday ecommerce sales to rise 8.7% this year, outpacing Cyber Monday’s 7.0% gain—though the Monday after Thanksgiving will once again hold its title as the year’s biggest online shopping day, surpassing $15 billion in sales for the first time.

Our take: There’s a growing risk to the ever-expanding Black Friday season: If every day is a sale, then the word “sale” loses its meaning. It’s no surprise, then, that consumers are becoming increasingly numb to the nonstop stream of discounts and promotions, according to a new report from AlixPartners.

The firm’s latest Consumer Sentiment Index—based on surveys of more than 9,000 shoppers—found that even amid a worsening cost-of-living crisis, price has fallen in importance as a purchase driver. Year over year, price importance dropped 13% in consumer priority rankings, and 30% fewer consumers now view major sales events or big deals as key buying influences.

That doesn’t mean retailers should abandon discounts altogether; they remain an essential lever during the final stretch of the holiday season. But to stand out, retailers must differentiate through attributes like an engaging in-store experience and high-touch customer service.