The news: PayPal and Venmo users can receive early access to Perplexity’s new browser, Comet, with a free 12-month trial of Perplexity Pro. Our take: Big Tech is betting that agentic commerce is the future of shopping, but consumers aren’t on board yet: Nearly 70% of US adults are not interested in AI-powered shopping assistants, per a September 2024 EMARKETER and CivicScience survey. While jostling for future positioning in the market, PayPal, Venmo, and Perplexity need to convince consumers that agentic commerce is a desirable payment option, lest they repeat a metaverse investment flop.
The news: Stripe asked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to preserve fee-free open banking as the agency revises Rule 1033. Our take: For now, Section 1033 will remain in place. But as rulemaking proceeds, Stripe’s appeal to the CFPB may fall on deaf ears. The new rule will likely be a defanged version of its predecessor. We expect more firms will pursue Coinbase’s route—carving out individual deals with JPMorgan—or close up shop like Visa.
The trend: In the wake of the US closing the de minimis loophole, several large Chinese ecommerce and logistics firms have been investing in European warehouses to offset US losses, per Bloomberg. Our take: The days of rapid growth for Chinese ecommerce companies may be over. Europe might soften the blow from US losses, but it is unlikely to replace them—especially given the weak economic outlooks in France and Germany.
The news: General Motors is tapping the brakes on electric vehicle production just after posting its best-ever month of EV sales in August. The automaker plans to scale back output of the Chevy Bolt and two Cadillac models as the federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires at the end of this month. “It will take several months for the market to normalize,” wrote Duncan Aldred, senior vice president and president, North America, in a blog post explaining the move. In the meantime, GM aims to avoid overproduction, anticipating a “smaller EV market for a while.” Our take: GM revived the Bolt to fill an unmet niche: affordable EVs. While the GOP tax and spending bill may narrow that opportunity, strong consumer interest suggests GM can still carve out meaningful gains—if it delivers a compelling value-for-money proposition.
Old Navy is venturing deeper into beauty. The Gap Inc. unit will begin selling its own branded beauty products this fall, alongside an expanded selection of items from brands like e.l.f. and Mario Badescu, per The Wall Street Journal. Old Navy’s beauty expansion is a bold bet, given the enormous number of brands already in the market and the increasing ranks of retailers hoping to benefit from resilient beauty demand.
Black adults in the US spend 45.9% of their total TV time on streaming platforms—more than both cable (22.4%) and broadcast (21.8%) combined, according to July 2024 data from Nielsen.
Cracker Barrel’s short-lived rebrand—and its rapid reversal—has quickly become a cautionary tale for heritage brands navigating change.
Resale platform Depop launched its biggest US marketing campaign to date as it looks to expand its audience beyond its core Gen Z user base and capitalize on surging demand for secondhand goods. Growing global demand for resale presents challenges and opportunities—both for marketplaces that trade in secondhand goods, like Depop and eBay, as well as for traditional retailers.
The forecasts: The holiday season may bring more gloom than cheer for retailers as consumers tighten spending amid economic uncertainty. Average per-person spend during the season is projected to fall 5.3% YoY to $1,552, PwC reports. That’s the first significant drop since the 2020 pandemic. Gen Z is leading the pullback, with their holiday budgets set to plunge 22.5% after soaring 37.4% in last year’s survey (their actual spending rose just 6%, per PwC’s card data). That reversal reflects the mounting pressure they face from a stagnant job market, rising fixed costs, and thin savings. One in 4 (25%) Gen Zers now say their finances are worse than a year ago, up from 17% in 2024. Tariffs may be amplifying the pullback. A July CivicScience survey found 54% of consumers under 30—along with 47% of all gift buyers—plan to buy fewer or cheaper gifts due to tariff concerns. While our forecast is somewhat brighter—we expect sales in November and December to grow 1.2% YoY—even that would mark the weakest holiday sales gain since we began tracking the metric in 2009. Our take: Retailers should meet consumers where they are this holiday season by offering budget-friendly choices such as smaller sizes, bundles, and gift sets, while also using loyalty programs to push their best customers to spend.
Macy’s better-than-expected Q2 marks “the beginning of a momentum change,” CEO Tony Spring told Bloomberg, as the struggling department store finds its footing ahead of the holiday season. Macy’s is in a better position than most of its department store peers, thanks to its investments in the customer experience and its luxury banners. However, recovery could prove fleeting should consumer sentiment worsen and shoppers balk at higher prices. To keep its momentum going, Macy’s will need to continue investing in the customer experience and look for ways to differentiate its luxury banners.
The news: Target is offering select customers a free year subscription to its Target Circle 360 membership program if they spend $199 on qualifying purchases by September 20, per Modern Retail. The $99 per year membership program offers free same-day delivery from Target, Kroger, CVS, Petco, and other stores via Target’s Shipt service, along with early access to Target sales, exclusive discounts and deals, and an extended returns window. Our take: Target should borrow a page from Walmart and lean on partnerships to expand Circle 360. That could mean teaming up with companies like Burger King for perks or with credit card issuers like American Express to bundle free memberships. The real power of paid memberships isn’t just subscription revenues—it’s their stickiness. Amazon has shown that once customers pay for Prime, they try to maximize every perk—streaming, prescriptions, food delivery, free shipping—and the more they use, the more they spend. Nonmembers, by contrast, often plateau or pull back. If Target wants to keep pace, it needs to find ways to broaden Circle 360’s offerings.
On today’s podcast episode, we discuss why investors wanted to bring in an outsider to right the ship, what’s most to blame for Target’s recent struggles, and what should be top of the new CEO’s to-do list. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and guest host, Marcus Johnson, and Senior Analysts, Blake Droesch and Arielle Feger.
American Eagle Outfitters’ bet on star power is helping the company recover from its sales slump. The retailer’s controversial campaign with Sydney Sweeney has been hugely successful, the company said, helping to boost brand awareness and drive shoppers to stores. Its recently announced collaboration with Travis Kelce also delivered an immediate sales bump. American Eagle’s celebrity-led marketing strategy is driving its recovery after a poor start to the year. By turning controversy into buzz, the brand’s campaigns have revived interest in its core products and expanded its appeal to a broader audience.
"In the space of what amounts to less than two years, we've seen commerce media evolve from an emerging idea to an industry pillar," said our analyst Sarah Marzano during a recent EMARKETER webinar.
The news: Michigan State University Federal Credit Union (MSUFCU) launched an in-house buy now, pay later (BNPL) feature to serve its members’ financial needs, per a press release. Our take: Credit unions can compete with big banks and fintechs alike by leaning into what younger consumers want. Catering to these student members helps credit unions stave off their age dilemma: In 2023, 69% of credit union customers were Gen X or older, per a McKinsey & Company study. Conversely, banks are performing better with younger consumers: 41% of their banking population is millennial and Gen Z and 58% are Gen X or older. As graying members spend down savings and shrink credit unions’ deposits and interest income, players like MSUFCU can strengthen their banking relationships with young members through aligned alternative finance methods like BNPL.
The news: Klarna is seeking a valuation of up to $14 billion in its coming IPO, per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The BNPL provider will list with the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol KLAR. The stock price at IPO is anticipated to be between $35 and $37 per share. Our take: Klarna is hoping its IPO can capture investors’ hunger for high-growth tech stocks after a period of uncertainty. Fueled by its partnerships and card launches, Klarna is setting itself up to challenge Affirm on US BNPL spend.
Amazon is ending its Prime Invitee program, which allowed members to share benefits outside of their households. The program will officially end on October 1. Amazon is relying on a tried-and-true tactic to boost memberships. While the retailer has several irons in the fire, including investments in rural delivery and grocery that it expects will increase Prime’s stickiness, it will take time for those initiatives to bear fruit. But an immediate account-sharing crackdown pays off right away.
The news: More than one-third (38%) of parents are stressed about affording back-to-school items, per Zip’s back-to-school survey. Our take: Given the level of strain for parents, BNPL providers have an opportunity to pitch their alternative credit models to overstretched families. Targeted marketing campaigns around back-to-school season and easy opportunities to use installments in store and online through BNPL-enabled cards and partnerships can strengthen spend.
The news: Affirm’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew 43% YoY to $10.4 billion, per Q4 FY 2025 earnings (ended June 30). The buy now, pay later (BNPL) company reported strong numbers across the board. Revenues soared 33% YoY to $876 million. Active consumers increased 24% YoY to 23 million. Transactions per active customer grew 19% to 5.8. The number of active merchants jumped 24% to 337,000. Our take: Affirm’s dominance in the US market is propelled by powerful Affirm Card spend—we forecast Affirm will edge out Klarna in terms of US volume by $4.7 billion. If the firm can keep growing its average ticket size, it could carve out a healthy niche in the consumer credit market: purchases that are too small to jump through the hoops of securing a personal loan but too large to pay off in one month on a credit card balance.
From Rare Beauty’s scented billboards and Walmart’s truck tours to Dick’s Sporting Goods’ in-house production studios, here’s what the eight most interesting retailers from August have been up to, as ranked on our “Behind the Numbers” podcast.