Amazon Prime Day is off to a good start: Average order size so far is up over 7.7% compared with 2022; we expect total sales to top $8 billion.

Some 57% of US consumers started their online shopping searches on Amazon as of Q2 2023, according to Jungle Scout. That’s more than those who started on a search engine (42%), the Walmart website (39%), or TikTok (17%).

Deep discounts may drive consumers previously holding back on big-ticket or discretionary purchases to splurge, while parents will keep an eye out for back-to-school deals. Walmart, Target, and Best Buy may see Prime Day-driven boosts in physical store traffic.

Cosmetics and beauty make up a nearly $100 billion industry in the US, and next year more than one-fifth of those sales will come from ecommerce, according to our forecasts. In order to win over beauty shoppers, and Gen Z ones in particular, brands need to pay close attention to where their digital ad dollars go. Here are five charts to help you out.

Computer and consumer electronics purchased during the pandemic are due for an upgrade, which is good news for Amazon and retail as a whole. But besides that possible bright spot, this year’s Prime Day event will likely be “unremarkable” as other retailers steal Amazon’s spotlight.

US ecommerce marketplaces will account for $384.57 billion in sales this year, a growth of 10.2% over 2022, according to our forecast. That growth will accelerate through the end of our forecast period in 2027, at which point sales will surpass $600 billion. “Amazon has really written the playbook for operating a successful marketplace in the US,” said our analyst Sky Canaves. Here’s a closer look at how the three biggest US ecommerce marketplaces stack up.

US retail marketplace ecommerce sales will reach $603.20 billion in 2027, representing 34.8% of total retail ecommerce sales, per our forecast.

Retail media will continue to be the fastest-growing segment of digital advertising in the coming years. By opening up their digital platforms to third-party sellers, retailers can generate high-margin revenues from advertising and marketing services charged to sellers to promote their products both on- and offsite. Amazon has built a commanding lead in this space—Amazon Ads draws more than three-quarters of US retail media ad spend.

Retail media spans a broad and growing merchant list, from marketplaces (Amazon) to department stores (Macy’s) to ride-sharing apps (Uber).

Younger consumers and higher-income shoppers are powering Walmart’s grocery growth while its physical footprint gives it an edge in retail media. Its burgeoning logistics business could be the next big thing for the retailer—and its bottom line.

Private label products give retailers more control over sourcing, manufacturing, and pricing, which they can use to offer items for lower costs, encouraging consumers to try new products, leading to lifelong brand ambassadors who will swear by your brand. Here’s how Target, Walmart, and Costco are labeling up.

Amazon sits at the top of US ecommerce, accounting for 37.6% of sales this year, according to our forecast. In addition to generating billions of dollars in sales, Amazon’s ecommerce business propels its other ventures, including retail media and B2B ecommerce. By harnessing the power of generative AI, Amazon could leave its retail competition even further in the dust, and possibly catch up to the Google and Meta duopoly.

Evolving consumer behavior and easing regulations are opening new pathways for long-term growth.

“If you want to dominate the digital landscape, you’ve got to win or be a clear leader on the three core pillars: media, advertising, and commerce,” our analyst Andrew Lipsman said during our recent “Attention!” summit.

The pandemic ecommerce boom that drove online sales is over. But marketplaces will continue to expand their share of US retail ecommerce, contributing almost 40% of the $588 billion in US online sales growth that we forecast over the next five years.

Though we’ve downgraded our retail media forecast, we anticipate the channel will experience double-digit growth through 2027. “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that retail media is one of the most important and potentially most transformative ad spending channels in media right now,” said our analyst Max Willens.

Walmart sees growth opportunities regardless of the macroeconomic environment: The retailer looks to boost its international sales, improve its digital presence, and expand its retail media business.

This year, US consumers will pay over $35 billion in retail membership fees, according to our forecast. Some 53% of that will go to Amazon, making it by far the biggest player.

Social media and TV are the top channels that consumer packaged goods (CPG) consumers use to find new products, but in-store still plays an important role in product discovery. Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart are fighting to capture share of CPG product searches, though in-store consumers are more likely to turn to Google for help.

The 15 biggest US ecommerce players aren’t a surprise (here’s looking at you, Amazon, Walmart, and Apple). User-friendly mobile apps, quick delivery, innovation, and converting sales are what turn retailers into ecommerce powerhouses. Here are the companies our analysts believe best exemplify those features within the 15 largest ecommerce players.