The news: Inflation ticked up in June in a sign that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Our take: June’s CPI data shows the toll tariffs are beginning to take on consumers’ buying power. While real wage growth remains in positive territory for now, that could change quickly once more companies begin to pass on a greater share of tariff costs to consumers, as the vast majority have signaled they’ll do.

The data points: Nearly 3 in 4 back-to-school shoppers expect to spend the same or more this fall, and more than 1 in 3 parents anticipate spending more than they did in 2024, per a PwC consumer survey. This suggests that even as consumers brace for higher prices—a consistent finding across University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys—demand remains resilient. Our take: The survey findings square with our back-to-school forecast, which expects sales to rise 3.0% YoY, down from 3.3% last year, marking the second consecutive year of declining growth. Retail ecommerce back-to-school sales are set to increase 6.8%, a deceleration from last year’s 7.4% gain. Though consumers are still spending, they’re becoming more selective. Retailers will need to lead with promotions, value-driven assortments, and early-season deals to capture share in this more cautious shopping environment.

The news: Shopify will not allow agents and other bots to purchase on users’ behalf without “final human review,” the company said in an update to the code used by merchants to operate their online storefronts. Our take: While AI agents aren’t yet reliable enough to be given free reign over purchase decisions, companies have to be prepared for a future where they soon will be.

The results: Amazon’s first four-day Prime Day event helped push US ecommerce sales to $24.1 billion from July 8–11—a 30.3% YoY increase, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Our take: Prime Day has cemented its place as a mid-summer shopping tentpole—and not just for Amazon. Other retailers, ranging from Dollar General to Walmart, leaned into the promotional window, turning July into a new retail battleground. Beyond sales, the event is a massive advertising opportunity. One of the under-the-radar reasons Amazon doubled the event’s length was to provide more ad inventory. Stretching Prime Day to four days gave brands more time to reach high-intent shoppers—and Amazon more room to expand its already-massive high-margin retail media business.

The tactic: Levi Strauss is reducing its SKU count—even as it expands the range of items it sells—to minimize tariff costs and maximize full-price sales. Our take: SKU rationalization is becoming a necessity for Levi Strauss and other brands and retailers looking to manage the impact of tariffs.

The situation: Despite persistent US-China trade tensions, the Chinese economy is proving more resilient than many expected. Our take: China is navigating a high-stakes global environment more deftly than expected—a promising sign for Chinese retailers. Stronger-than-anticipated export growth, solid GDP performance, and growing trade diversification point to a more stable macroeconomic backdrop. That creates an opportunity for Chinese retailers and manufacturers to tap into rising domestic demand while expanding into alternative export markets. If this momentum holds—a big if—they could potentially outpace the 2.0% YoY retail sales growth that we currently forecast.

The insight: The gulf between top-tier luxury brands like Brunello Cucinelli and the rest of the market is widening as ultra-wealthy consumers become the primary growth driver for the industry. Our take: Luxury brands have to work harder than ever to win over cautious consumers. While many are chasing the money by recalibrating their assortments—and price points—to woo high net worth individuals, this strategy could backfire by making brands even less appealing to the aspirational shoppers who still account for the majority of luxury sales.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The news: Save A Lot introduced a new Hispanic-focused store format—its second—in partnership with Leevers Supermarket as it explores ways to build deeper connections with Hispanic consumers. The takeaway: The rationale for opening these stores is clear: Hispanic consumers wield increasing buying power and account for an outsize share of growth in categories like CPG, beauty, and food and beverage. By targeting these shoppers with formats and products best suited to their needs, grocers can win lasting loyalty.

The initiative: Urban Outfitters is teaming with HGTV to launch the “Dream Dorm Makeover Contest,” which invites students to create a Pinterest board that captures their vision for a dorm that reflects their personal style, supports their daily routines, and feels like home. Our take: The campaign is designed to help Urban Outfitters connect with Gen Z students and their parents, as well as millennials seeking creative ways to revamp small spaces.

The insight: Travel demand has stabilized after a turbulent start to Q2, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview with CNBC. As a result, the airline reinstated its profit outlook for the year. It had withdrawn its forecast after President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. Our take: The summer travel season is shaping up to be better than airlines expected at the beginning of Q2—but demand remains constrained by uncertainty as consumers debate whether to indulge now or conserve their resources in anticipation of future financial strain. Airlines can either juice demand by lowering prices, or protect their bottom lines by cutting capacity and doubling down on premium experiences.

The news: The wave of consolidation in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector is continuing with Italian candymaker Ferrero’s $3.1 billion acquisition of cereal manufacturer WK Kellogg. The deal will give the maker of Nutella and Ferrero Rocher a foothold in staple grocery categories, as well as deepen its North America presence—a particular area of focus for the company. Our take: With grocery spending strained and costs rising, most CPG companies are taking one of two tracks. Some, like Ferrero and PepsiCo, are making strategic acquisitions to broaden their portfolios and keep up with shifting trends. Others, like Conagra and General Mills, are shedding assets to reduce expenses and focus on the categories with the greatest growth potential.

The news: Ulta Beauty acquired upscale UK beauty retailer Space NK for an undisclosed amount, the company said, as it turns to new markets to offset slowing US growth. Our take: The US beauty market is becoming increasingly saturated as more retailers lean on the category to boost sluggish sales. While expanding to new markets comes with its own set of challenges, Ulta’s decision to rely on acquisitions and distribution partnerships will help smooth its path.

The challenge: Chocolate makers are feeling the squeeze as cocoa powder prices have jumped nearly 16% YoY due to a global shortage, per Bloomberg. Our take: Small price increases add up—especially in an environment where consumers are still scarred by the coronavirus-era wave of inflation. Today’s shoppers are hyperaware of price hikes and increasingly willing to switch brands, delay purchases, or trade down. That puts added pressure on retailers and manufacturers to either justify price increases through quality and innovation—or find new ways to absorb rising costs without compromising brand trust.

The insight: Prime Day got off to a strong start, according to Adobe data, despite alternative reports of a dip in spending. Our take: The early Prime Day enthusiasm is an encouraging sign for Amazon, which is counting on the event to not only boost sales but also unlock additional ad revenues. It could also be a good sign for retailers running competing sales. While we ultimately expect the longer sales period to benefit the ecommerce giant, shoppers’ growing awareness of other events—and propensity to comparison-shop—could help retailers like Walmart and Target grow their share of an increasingly lucrative shopping period.

The insight: Fashion M&A activity is drying up as uncertainty and structural challenges dampen investor interest. The number of deals in the apparel and accessories category fell nearly 40% YoY globally in Q2, according to PitchBook data reported by Modern Retail. Our take: The current macroeconomic environment is not conducive to most M&A activity, as uncertainty pushes companies to conserve resources and focus on their core businesses. But for retailers in a relative position of strength, now could be the time to make strategic acquisitions that either reinforce their existing advantages or enable them to diversify.

The situation: QSRs are in a tough spot. The restaurant industry had monthly traffic growth in just one of the 12 months through May, according to Black Box Intelligence data cited by CNBC. Our take: QSRs can’t afford to stand still. In a tough operating environment, brands that act decisively and innovate boldly are best positioned to outpace the macroeconomic headwinds. Even if every move doesn’t deliver an immediate payoff, momentum matters—and sitting on the sidelines is the riskiest strategy of all.

The news: Amazon has partnered with delivery firm Gopuff to bring ultra-fast delivery to several UK markets, including Birmingham, Cambridge, Leeds, London, and Manchester. Our take: Amazon’s focus is crystal clear: Get orders to shoppers’ doors as fast as possible. In the US, it has pushed next-day delivery as the new standard—even as it rapidly expands same-day service. In some cases, delivery happens within hours (for example, a Prime Day order we placed at 6 am today arrived at our door by noon.) To extend that promise beyond urban hubs, Amazon is investing over $4 billion through 2026 to triple the size of its rural delivery network. By year-end, it expects to bring same- or next-day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller cities and rural communities. Speed isn’t just a perk. It is the key component within Amazon’s growth strategy. The faster the company delivers, the more frequently consumers turn to Amazon for their everyday needs—and the harder it becomes for competitors to keep up.

The eye-catching headline: “Amazon Prime Day Spending Down 14% in Early Hours From 2024” blared from one report, citing early data from Momentum Commerce, which manages Amazon sales for brands like Crocs and Beats that total roughly $7 billion in annual volume on the platform. Our take: Prime Day is on track to become the biggest sales event in Amazon’s history. While early-hour softness and lower per-day comparisons may raise some eyebrows, the full picture tells a different story: Total revenues will shatter records thanks to a powerful mix of deal-hungry shoppers, tariff-driven urgency, and a high-margin advertising engine firing on all cylinders.

The news: Gen Z’s share of private label spending will overtake that of baby boomers by 2026, according to a Numerator report. Our take: Gen Z’s affinity for private labels is part of a broader behavioral shift—one that retailers are making the most of. To encourage loyalty among this notoriously fickle cohort, companies will need to stay on top of emerging food trends, foster exclusivity and a sense of urgency with limited-edition releases, and make sure they satisfy Gen Zers’ desire for attractive packaging, transparent labeling, and sustainability.