Home Depot made a bid for GMS, a building products and tool supplier for both consumers and contractors, per The Wall Street Journal. Our take: Home Depot sees a significant opportunity to consolidate the fragmented construction supply and tool market—and it's moving at a moment when the US housing shortfall could drive sustained demand for new construction and renovation.

The insight: The vast majority—80%—of automakers’ $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average—which will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn’t fully planned for.

The news: Temu’s foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it’s possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors—and the harder it will be to regain market share.

Housing hits more walls: Latest data show new signs of market weakening as builders pull back.

The situation: White-collar employment at US public companies has dropped 3.5% over the past three years, per Live Data Technologies data cited by The Wall Street Journal. The trend comes as companies face mounting pressure to cut overhead amid economic uncertainty—prompting executives to increasingly turn to automation to boost efficiency. Our take: White-collar job cuts, combined with rising tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, are creating an increasingly challenging environment for retailers heading into the second half of 2025—and likely beyond.

The news: Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is raising prices on select products in response to cost pressures from the Trump administration’s tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. Our take: Sam’s Club is on a roll. The retailer is generating record-high membership levels and plans to accelerate growth by opening about 15 new stores each year while remodeling existing locations. But how Sam’s Club handles tariff-driven price increases could determine whether its momentum continues—or stalls. The retailer faces a delicate balancing act in deciding when to absorb rising costs and when to pass them on. The stakes are high. A misstep could either erode profit margins or drive a decline in membership renewals—both of which are essential to its business model.

The insight: Walmart sees a (near) future where customers will shop directly from their smart TVs—preferably one powered by Vizio, which the retailer purchased for $2.3 billion last year. Our take: Shoppers are gradually becoming more comfortable with the concept of shoppable TV. Whether those occasional behaviors become habit will depend on platforms’ ability to offer ads that are personalized and relevant. That puts Walmart at an advantage, given its troves of first-party data—although it faces tough competition from the likes of Amazon and Roku.

The news: Amazon announced its Prime Day event will run from July 8 at 12:01 a.m. PDT through July 11, starting eight days earlier than last year and lasting twice as long as previous events. Our take: Amazon recognizes that while consumers have grown more selective about when and where they spend, many will still jump at the chance to save if they find compelling offers. By extending Prime Day’s duration, adding tech-driven shopping tools, and broadening its footprint across countries and third-party sites, Amazon is turning the event into an inescapable, large-scale retail moment. Even in a margin-squeezed environment, the visibility and sales potential of Prime Day may be too significant for sellers to pass up.

The news: Costco plans to open a standalone gas station next spring in Mission Viejo, a city in Orange County, California. The 40-pump station, which will be the membership club’s largest to date, will be about two miles from two existing Costco warehouses—one of which already has a gas station. Our take: Costco is investing in ways to reinforce the value of membership, and fuel is central to that equation. If this off-site station succeeds, it could set the stage for a broader rollout of standalone locations—especially in high-traffic markets. The move could also prompt rivals like Sam’s Club to follow suit as competition in the warehouse club space heats up.

The news: US retail sales fell more than expected in May from April, the latest sign that tariff fears and economic volatility are affecting consumer spending. Our take: While May’s retail sales data largely show that consumers are hanging in, the situation remains unpredictable—especially given the fact that tariff-driven price hikes have yet to kick in for a multitude of everyday purchases, including groceries and apparel.

The news: Pinterest is partnering with Instacart to allow advertisers to power their campaigns using the latter’s first-party data—a move that will enhance the value of both companies’ ad platforms while advancing Pinterest’s shoppable ambitions. Our take: Pinterest’s ability to engage the all-important Gen Z cohort, along with its role as a source of inspiration and product discovery, is making it a more strategic asset for brands and retailers. As economic uncertainty drives companies to be more careful with their ad dollars, Pinterest’s ability to reach audiences at every stage of their customer journey—now bolstered by access to Instacart’s first-party data—positions it as an even more valuable partner.

The news: Weaker-than-expected travel demand is driving JetBlue Airways to launch cost-cutting measures, including eliminating underperforming routes, ending service in some cities, halting nonessential aircraft refreshes, and restructuring its leadership team, per Bloomberg. Our take: Macro uncertainty is compounding the pressures on already struggling companies—whether it’s JetBlue, auto parts maker Marelli, or home furnishings retailer At Home—as each grapples with weakened demand, rising costs, and limited financial flexibility.

The news: China retail sales jumped 6.4% YoY in May, per official data. That outpaced expectations for a 5% increase and marked an acceleration from April’s 5.1% growth. What it means: While the stronger-than-expected retail sales are a promising sign for the country’s beleaguered economy, conditions on the ground remain highly challenging.

The news: Saks Global—the roughly year-old troubled parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus—says it is finding its footing and has no plans to close stores, Retail Dive reports. Our take: Saks Global needs more than fresh financing—it needs a clear strategy that will make clear how it can navigate economic headwinds and rebuild trust with suppliers. With luxury spending softening as consumers grow more cautious, execution in the months ahead will be critical—not just for stability, but for long-term survival.

The news: Activist investor Barington Capital is pushing for changes at Victoria’s Secret, just weeks after the retailer adopted a poison pill measure to thwart a potential takeover attempt by Australian investment firm BBRC International. Our take: The uncertain environment is proving to be too good an opportunity for activist investors to pass up. In Q1 alone, shareholders launched 40 campaigns in the US, accounting for more than half of global activity and a 43% increase YoY, according to a Barclays analysis.

The news: Michaels is getting a head start on the spooky season. The arts and crafts retailer began stocking its shelves with Halloween merchandise this past Friday, marking its earliest-ever rollout of themed items. Our take: Michaels is betting that even as consumers pull back on discretionary purchases, they’ll keep splurging on Instagram-worthy seasonal décor—especially if they can get it first. From black rose wreaths to candy-colored pumpkins and disco-themed skeletons, the early drop positions Michaels to win over shoppers eager to get a head start on Halloween.

The insight: Gen Z consumers are starting their purchase journeys more often on Google properties, including YouTube and Gemini, according to a Business Insider report citing Morgan Stanley data. Our take: Google is doing a good job of leveraging the popularity of YouTube and increasing interest in genAI-powered shopping tools to win over younger shoppers and establish itself as the first port of call in their customer journeys.

The news: Hotel companies are expanding their upscale offerings to capitalize on strong demand for unique and customized accommodations among affluent consumers. Our take: Luxury and lifestyle brands are weathering economic ambiguity better than economy lodging. This divergence indicates that upscale, experiential offerings will be more resilient, while economy hotels face headwinds from cost-conscious consumers.

The insight: The US is mired in the “worst housing market in almost 50 years,” RH CEO Gary Friedman said during the company’s Q1 earnings call, as high housing costs and economic uncertainty chill demand. Our take: With the sluggish housing market showing few signs of improvement, retailers must lean into any pockets of opportunity they find. For RH, that’s burnishing its luxury credentials and pushing deeper into hospitality, while Wayfair is leaning on its diverse supplier base. The resilient pro market is another area companies should look to take advantage of as they try to ride out the downturn.

The news: Eight years after acquiring Whole Foods, Amazon is moving to more fully integrate the grocer into its core business, Business Insider reports. Our take: Amazon is clearly aware of the friction—and the opportunity—in its grocery ecosystem.