The news: TikTok commerce traffic has trended down throughout 2025 amid uncertainty about the app’s future in the US. Our take: Trump’s extension gives TikTok more time to reach a deal but does little to ease the internal disruption from ByteDance’s austerity drive. New tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption could hinder TikTok Shop’s performance.

The tests: In an effort to regain momentum, Target is piloting several initiatives aimed at boosting sales and protecting its margins. Our take: Target isn’t standing still amid its challenges—but it isn’t clear if its latest moves will resonate with consumers. It’s encouraging to see Target establish an “acceleration office” to push innovation forward. But with consumer budgets under strain, finding the right formula won’t be easy—especially given the stiff competition it faces from Amazon, Walmart, and others.

The situation: Nike’s turnaround will likely take some time. In FYQ4, the company’s sales fell 12% YoY (11% on a constant-currency basis), reflecting what CFO Matthew Friend called the “largest financial impact” from the company’s reset strategy. Still, he expressed confidence that “headwinds will moderate from here,” emphasizing Nike’s focus on execution and controlling what it can. Our take: Turning around a company the size of Nike is like trying to turn around an ocean liner in rough waters. Change takes time, especially amid headwinds like tariffs and shaky demand, and execution missteps keep dragging on performance. Nike is adjusting course—leaning back into wholesale, cleaning up its inventory, and getting more surgical with product drops—but calm seas are still a ways off.

H&M moves to diversify sourcing amid tariff threat: The move will enable it to stay competitive with Zara and minimize tariffs’ impact on its bottom line

The insight: Retailers’ return strategies play a crucial role in managing the impact of tariffs. Efficient reverse logistics processes can help maximize companies’ existing inventory and reduce buying costs—vital savings at a time when every overseas order carries a minimum duty of 10%. Our take: With tariffs looming large, retailers need to maximize the efficiency of their reverse logistics operations. Being able to restock returned merchandise faster will help mitigate some inventory pressures—although companies need to make sure that they have rigorous processes to prevent items in poor condition from making their way to customers and damaging their brand reputations.

The trend: Value-seeking behavior is on the rise, though not without some volatility, per Deloitte. Our take: Consumers’ growing focus on value doesn’t necessarily mean they want the cheapest option. In fact, up to 40% of how consumers evaluate value comes from nonprice factors, per a separate Deloitte study. That’s a critical distinction for brands. While it can be tempting to lean into discounts, a narrow focus on price cuts can hurt long-term brand equity. Brands that offer added value—through better quality, service, loyalty programs, or other innovations—are seeing stronger purchase intent and increasing consumer share.

The trend: A perfect macroeconomic storm is causing younger consumers to cut back on spending. Our take: These pressures aren’t going away anytime soon. The Trump administration’s tariffs are leading retailers like Walmart, Best Buy, and Macy’s to raise prices—putting even more strain on young shoppers already feeling stretched. At the same time, job anxieties are growing. The white collar workforce is shrinking, and more companies are citing AI as a reason for layoffs. Put it all together, and it’s likely that younger consumers will remain cautious with their spending for some time, especially on nonessentials. Retailers that want to win over this group will need to focus on offering value such as high-quality, private label products.

The scene: When Cooper Flagg—the odds-on favorite to be the NBA Rookie of the Year next season—steps onto the court for the first time, he’ll be wearing New Balance basketball shoes. Our take: New Balance’s push to sign Flagg, along with its other star-powered ambassadors, underscores its clear ambition to break into the top tier of global sportswear brands. While Nike and Adidas still lead by a wide margin, New Balance has its sights set on Puma, which reported $9.5 billion in sales last year—well ahead of New Balance’s $7.8 billion. To close the gap, New Balance needs to turn its growing visibility into demand, which is far from a sure thing. From there, it must maintain that momentum with consistent sales across both its performance and lifestyle lines. If Flagg lives up to the hype and the brand finds ways to ride that momentum, New Balance could take a meaningful step up the sneaker hier

The news: Skims, the shapewear brand founded by Kim Kardashian, is on an expansion tear as it nears $1 billion in annual sales, per Business of Fashion. The company plans to open 16 stores in the US this year, bringing its total domestic footprint to 22. Over the next nine months, Skims expects to establish itself in seven new markets—including stores in Mexico, London, and Dubai. Our take: While stores are hugely important to Skims’ growth, the company has several advantages over the rest of the D2C field. Unlike most other D2C companies, Skims doesn’t need to rely on its stores as billboards given its high-profile founder, who is also a fixture of its ad campaigns. Its partnership with Nike will give it access to an even larger audience and smooth its entry into the athleisure category—assuming production delays don’t get in the way. The launch will also considerably increase Skims’ retail presence without needing to invest in premium real estate.

The news: Walmart is testing dark stores in Dallas and Bentonville, Arkansas, as part of its broader effort to speed up deliveries, per Bloomberg. Our take: Amazon’s latest pledge to offer one- or same-day delivery in 4,000 smaller cities and rural areas by year’s end is the latest salvo in its relentless quest to raise the bar on convenience. For Walmart, keeping pace isn’t optional—it’s essential. Fortunately, Walmart has the scale and infrastructure to compete. Fast delivery isn’t just about logistics; it’s a powerful driver of customer loyalty. When shoppers know they can get essentials like toothpaste at their doorstep within hours, they’re more likely to click the buy button rather than venture out to a store.

The news: Amazon plans to bring same- and next-day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller cities and rural communities by year’s end. Our take: Amazon’s growing focus on rural delivery is squarely aimed at deepening Prime’s value, driving higher engagement, and unlocking long-term loyalty in a market that still holds plenty of untapped potential.

The news: Unilever acquired men’s personal care brand Dr. Squatch—which recently made headlines for offering soap containing actress Sydney Sweeney’s bathwater— for an undisclosed amount as it looks to establish a greater foothold in the fast-growing category. It’s a notable move for a company that is otherwise shedding brands to speed its turnaround, and a clear sign that Unilever counts men’s personal care as one of the “premium and high growth spaces” to prioritize. Our take: While men are hardly a monolithic entity, their optimism about the economy makes them more likely than women to increase their spending this year. At the same time, shifting consumption habits are turning male consumers into a more valuable commodity—as Saks and Unilever see only too clearly.

The news:The Krispy Kreme–McDonald’s marriage is ending. The announcement comes less than two months after the companies said they were pausing a nationwide rollout—despite doughnuts being available in 2,400 McDonald’s locations—to reassess the profitability of the expansion. Our take: The breakup with McDonald’s comes at a tough time for Krispy Kreme—and for many other quick-service chains. The company has pulled its 2025 forecast, paused its dividend, and is now refocusing on what matters most: boosting cash flow, improving efficiency, and growing in a way that actually makes money in the US. The McDonald’s partnership gave Krispy Kreme more visibility, but not enough profit. With costs rising and margins getting tighter, the company is shifting its focus from rapid expansion to ensuring its business is built to last.

The news: Target is testing a factory-direct shipping model that would enable it to offer lower-cost products to customers, per Bloomberg. The model, which lets suppliers ship products directly to shoppers, closely resembles the strategy used by Temu and Shein to keep prices low. Our take: Unfortunately for Target, now is not the best time to increase its reliance on overseas suppliers. While the Temu-Shein model worked spectacularly well for several years, the conditions that fueled their growth—namely, the de minimis exemption and low tariffs—are no longer in place.

The insight: Amazon is trying to make a bigger name for itself in the luxury sphere—a strategy that could help soften the blow from tariffs. Our take: That designer brands and retailers are eager to partner with Amazon despite its mixed track record in luxury shows the state of the industry, which is under serious pressure as economic uncertainty saps even affluent consumers’ desire to shop. Amazon’s extensive reach—three-quarters of US households are Prime users, per our forecast—and ability to drive spending even in times of volatility are making it an increasingly valuable partner for any brand looking to drive sales in an unsettled environment.

The situation: The escalating US-Iran conflict threatens to unleash fresh headwinds for the retail industry, which is already under pressure from the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Our take: Uncertainty has loomed over the industry all year, making it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan ahead with the Trump administration’s shifting trade policies. Case in point: The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, and there’s little clarity as to whether it will be extended or if the sweeping levies will take effect. The escalating US–Iran conflict only adds to the volatility, compounding the pressure on retailers. Together, these factors make it increasingly likely that the operating environment will remain murky for the remainder of the year.

The news: The European Commission said it would abandon efforts to pass a law against corporate greenwashing, citing a “simplification agenda” to remove red tape and make the EU more attractive for business. Our take: Many companies will take the easing of environmental oversight in the US and the EU as an excuse to water down their sustainability initiatives. That could lower costs in the short term—but at the risk of alienating the large swath of consumers who factor sustainability into their purchase decisions and are quick to identify greenwashing.

The trend: Summer retail sales are starting earlier and stretching longer than ever. Our take: Retailers aren’t just chasing summer sales—they’re building revenue engines that integrate ecommerce, loyalty programs, and retail media into a more durable flywheel. By making sales events exclusive to members or offering perks like early access to deals, they’re encouraging sign-ups, deepening engagement, and boosting long-term customer value. The longer promotional windows give retailers more time to drive discretionary spending, alleviate fulfillment bottlenecks, and monetize digital traffic through advertising. That’s especially critical this year, as economic uncertainty prompts more consumers to pull back on nonessential purchases.

The insight: Amazon is trying to figure out how it can benefit from the AI agentic boom without giving shopping agents unfettered access to its site, according to a report by The Information. Our take: While agentic commerce is far from the norm for the time being, retailers need to be prepared. That’s especially true for companies with retail media businesses, given the potential for AI agents to upend their ability to monetize their sites.

The trend: Casual dining chains that lean into value are luring cost-conscious consumers, even as broader economic uncertainty tempers discretionary spending. Our take: Consumers haven’t stopped dining out, but they’ve become more selective. They’re increasingly looking for value experiences that offer more for their money. That shift is pressuring some parts of the industry. Quick-service chains like McDonald’s and fine dining brands like Darden’s Ruth’s Chris and The Capital Grille are feeling the squeeze. But it’s providing an opportunity for casual dining chains that offer affordable indulgences. Their combination of sit-down service and budget-friendly pricing is hitting the mark.