US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

The news: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AI-driven efficiencies will reduce the company’s headcount. “As we roll out more generative AI and agents …we will need fewer people doing some of the jobs that are being done today, and more people doing other types of jobs,” Jassy said in a letter to employees. “In the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce.” Our take: Companies that pursue an AI-first mission by laying off employees risk lower team morale, a resistance to AI adoption among workers, and damaged consumer trust. Still, Amazon’s scale, deep pockets, and cloud infrastructure dominance may insulate it from backlash or major fallout.

A new four-day format for Amazon’s tentpole event will shake up the playing field.

The market will return to growth in 2025, but retailers face ongoing disruption from ultra-fast-fashion players and TikTok Shop.

The news: Amazon will bring inventory from Roku to its demand-side platform (DSP), the two announced at Cannes Lions, starting in Q4 2025. Our take: Amazon’s Roku partnership is a well-timed announcement to convince advertisers to stick with their CTV ecosystems even amid tightening budgets.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes—not impressions—will shape the next era.

Grocery delivery intermediaries like DoorDash and Uber are gaining ground, offering new ways to reach high-intent shoppers. Meanwhile, retailers like Walmart and Amazon continue to lead with strong delivery infrastructure and valuable customer data.

The news: Pinterest will host high-performing influencer content posted on affiliate shopping platform LTK, automatically bringing popular images from the platform to Pinterest, according to The Verge. Pinterest also hired Chip Jessopp, former Amazon director of global accounts and ad tech sales, as head of programmatic, per Digiday. Jessopp will help Pinterest create new demand channels while scaling its programmatic abilities. Our take: Pinterest’s moves could better position it as a legitimate competitor in digital advertising and a promising growth area for influencers and marketers—giving the platform more legs against social commerce giants like Meta and TikTok.

The news: Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe so customers can pay with the USDC stablecoin at checkout. Our take: Coinbase is the biggest winner in this partnership. Cryptocurrency needs to gain traction with a wide merchant network to accelerate its use, and Shopify represents a huge score for Base.

The news:** Amazon has quietly doubled the ad load on Prime Video, now serving 4 to 6 minutes of ads per hour—up from 2 to 3.5—placing it alongside Hulu and Paramount+ in volume. This aligns with Amazon’s effort to scale its connected TV inventory and offers buyers greater reach. Our take: The added ad time could shift Prime Video’s role in media planning, attracting performance-focused advertisers if CPMs soften, or reinforcing a premium stance if PMP rates hold. Weekly user engagement remains high, making the platform a reliable environment for consistent exposure. Amazon is quietly positioning Prime Video as a leading CTV ad player.

The news: Eight years after acquiring Whole Foods, Amazon is moving to more fully integrate the grocer into its core business, Business Insider reports. Our take: Amazon is clearly aware of the friction—and the opportunity—in its grocery ecosystem.

The news: GoodRx is rolling out a subscription service for erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment. Our take: GoodRx is in a great position to compete with the top D2C telehealth players since consumers are already on the site or app searching for prescription drug discounts—it has over 6 million active monthly consumers who use a coupon code. GoodRx might also be more trusted than pure-play telehealth companies in the eyes of consumers since its services help people save money on their healthcare.

The news: Amazon’s Private Auction is quietly reshaping the CTV landscape by introducing more flexible buying on Prime Video. The format allows smaller advertisers and performance marketers to compete for inventory through open bidding, bypassing the need for costly guaranteed placements. As CPMs decline and the demand for agility rises, this move gives brands better control over pricing and access. Our take: While big brands may still favor premium guarantees, Amazon’s shift reflects broader momentum toward programmatic efficiency. By inviting direct-response buyers into the Prime Video ecosystem, Amazon is not just monetizing scale—it’s redefining what CTV access looks like in 2025.

The news: Quality control is a growing fear for advertisers as an Adweek investigation found ads from major brands appeared near offensive and inappropriate content. Ads from brands like Amazon and Verizon were found near sexual or racially offensive content on the Android short-form video app XShorts. Our take: Advertisers are increasingly faced with a digital landscape where programmatic ad buying lacks the quality control required to keep up with rapid innovation and demand for ad space—prompting renewed calls for transparency, verification, and human oversight in automated systems.

Retail and commerce media were huge topics at last year’s Cannes Lions festival, and this year, the festival is doubling down on the channel by introducing a new retail media sub-category in the Media Lions and Creative Commerce Lions awards. However, “the tone is definitely shifting” as the industry matures—and faces the threat of tariff-related impacts, according to our analyst, Sarah Marzano.

The trend: Walmart and Amazon are determined to take drone delivery mainstream. Our take: It’s easy to understand the sci-fi appeal of drone delivery—but whether it’s feasible remains a question that retailers are still struggling to answer.

The news: Amazon is testing humanoid delivery robots, per The Information, which could work in tandem with human drivers or as part of an autonomous fleet of delivery vehicles. The humanoid robotics team is working on incorporating large language models (LLMs) from Chinese companies DeepSeek and Alibaba so the bots can contextualize real-world surroundings. Our take: Delivery bots could help with heavy loads and ease the burden on human drivers, but Amazon might be better served with a less human form factor, such as a platform with walking legs to carry packages. The focus on humanoids could limit functionality, and bringing the uncanny valley to consumers’ front door could be off-putting.

The news: The NBA held steady at 4,668 brand sponsors between 2023 and 2024, but total sponsorship revenues rose 8% to $1.62 billion, thanks to jersey patch deals, venue launches like the Intuit Dome, and record-breaking player endorsements. The Golden State Warriors alone brought in over $200 million, and rookie Jared McCain set a league record with 30 personal brand deals. Our take: The NBA is deepening its value to advertisers, not just expanding reach. With media rights deals and Amazon integration elevating its commercial footprint, the league is fast becoming one of the most lucrative platforms for modern marketers.

The insight: The gap between Target and its mass merchant competitors Amazon and Walmart is widening. While Amazon and Walmart are consolidating their grip on consumer spending after investments in value and convenience, Target’s largely discretionary assortment and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) controversies are sharply curbing its appeal. Our take: Shoppers are prioritizing necessities over discretionary goods and favoring retailers that offer value and convenience.

There are now more than 80 retail media networks (RMNs) in the US. The volume of RMNs, combined with the dominance of Amazon and other established competitors, makes it challenging for new and niche RMNs to capture share.