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CPG

How shoppers buy groceries online is changing: As consumers grow more cost-conscious, pickup’s share of digital grocery orders rises.

On today's episode, in our "Retail Me This, Retail Me That" segment, we discuss why beauty is doing so much better than the rest of retail, how we've seen the "lipstick effect" play out, and how beauty shopping habits are changing. Then, for "Pop-Up Rankings," we rank our top four beauty brand marketing strategies other retailers can learn from. Join our analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts analysts Sky Canaves and Carina Perkins.

Gen Z’s buying power is rapidly growing: Food and beverage companies looking to cater to the demo’s unique tastes can’t do so without incurring some risks, however.

Cosmetics and beauty make up a nearly $100 billion industry in the US, and next year more than one-fifth of those sales will come from ecommerce, according to our forecasts. In order to win over beauty shoppers, and Gen Z ones in particular, brands need to pay close attention to where their digital ad dollars go. Here are five charts to help you out.

Gen Z consumers of beauty and skincare products are most attracted to brands for their pricing (48%), samples (46%), and sustainability (44%), according to Bolt. Pricing is a bigger influence for older consumers, cited by 61% of those ages 18 and older.

Some 22% of beauty retail sales worldwide will take place online this year, the most of any sales channel, per McKinsey. Physical specialty stores, such as Sephora and Ulta Beauty, will come in a close second (20%), while department stores will rank last (8%).

Retail media spans a broad and growing merchant list, from marketplaces (Amazon) to department stores (Macy’s) to ride-sharing apps (Uber).

Before the pandemic, online alcohol sales rates were in close proportion to the rest of food and beverage. But the pandemic-induced digital grocery boom accelerated the pace of ecommerce penetration among food and beverage sales. For many reasons, alcohol did not keep up with this larger category trend.

Nearly half of US adults said last month that they’re buying more brands on sale due to inflation, while 43% reported buying fewer products overall, according to Ipsos.

US alcohol off-premises retail ecommerce sales will reach $6.85 billion this year, growing 6.1% over 2022, according to our forecast. Growth will reach double digits come 2026.

Younger consumers and higher-income shoppers are powering Walmart’s grocery growth while its physical footprint gives it an edge in retail media. Its burgeoning logistics business could be the next big thing for the retailer—and its bottom line.

Inflation for pet food and services was over 10% in April, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the category has won a reputation of being somewhat recession-proof, thanks to its necessity for pet owners. “People will be spending more on the pets that they have already, despite the fact that it’s been a relatively inflation-wary populous,” said our analyst Jeremy Goldman on a recent episode of our “Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail” podcast.

Bud Light is no longer the US’ top-selling beer brand: While cost-conscious consumers turn to macro beers, AB InBev’s Dylan Mulvaney-related missteps are pushing them to other brands.

Private label products give retailers more control over sourcing, manufacturing, and pricing, which they can use to offer items for lower costs, encouraging consumers to try new products, leading to lifelong brand ambassadors who will swear by your brand. Here’s how Target, Walmart, and Costco are labeling up.

Though we’ve downgraded our retail media forecast, we anticipate the channel will experience double-digit growth through 2027. “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that retail media is one of the most important and potentially most transformative ad spending channels in media right now,” said our analyst Max Willens.

Retail media is moving from its initial state (search and on-site display ads) up the funnel toward social, open web, and connected TV. As retail media networks move into their next era, they should leverage partnerships to explore new channels, said Evan Hovorka, vice president of product and innovation at Albertsons Media Collective.

Social media and TV are the top channels that consumer packaged goods (CPG) consumers use to find new products, but in-store still plays an important role in product discovery. Meanwhile, Amazon and Walmart are fighting to capture share of CPG product searches, though in-store consumers are more likely to turn to Google for help.

We expect US cosmetic and beauty sales to grow 7.6%: While consumers are spending more selectively, they’re still willing to splurge on their favorite items.

Amazon is the top dog of US retail, accounting for 37.6% of all US ecommerce sales this year for a total of $431.11 billion dollars, according to our forecast. While the giant has a successful stronghold in many US industries, Amazon isn’t dominant everywhere, especially as it pertains to a physical footprint and getting consumers comfortable with its elite tech. Here are a few areas Amazon hasn’t overtaken—yet.

Amazon is doing everything it can to keep growing: The retailer has a dizzying array of initiatives in the pipeline, from in-game merchandise shops to generative AI advertising tools to incentives for shoppers to retrieve orders in person.