Our midyear report revisits the top trends we named in early 2025 to see what’s shaping the market, evolving fast, or fading in the rearview mirror.

Though TikTok Shop faces the dual challenges of economic instability and a tenuous presence on US app stores, marketers are still taking advantage of its positioning as both a social platform and ecommerce engine.

The news: TikTok commerce traffic has trended down throughout 2025 amid uncertainty about the app’s future in the US. Our take: Trump’s extension gives TikTok more time to reach a deal but does little to ease the internal disruption from ByteDance’s austerity drive. New tariffs and the elimination of the de minimis exemption could hinder TikTok Shop’s performance.

Latin America’s ad market will surpass $40 billion this year as it continues to defy economic uncertainty. Rebounds in Argentina and Chile, along with double-digit growth in retail and social media spending, will fuel momentum. Here are the latest trends you need to know.

In the first half of 2025, tariffs rattled retailers, consumer trust wavered in the face of muted DEI efforts, and fast-fashion platforms like Shein and Temu braced for policy whiplash. Meanwhile, private label products surged in popularity, and the retail world took a closer look at generative AI—not just for buzz, but for tangible impact across the shopper journey. Here are the top stories from H1 2025 and why they matter for the rest of the year.

The news: PayPal is launching storefront-style ads that allow users to buy products directly within display ads on publisher sites, using PayPal or Venmo without leaving the page. Debuting in the US with partners like Business Insider and Vox Media, the units will later expand to include carousels and listings. This move strengthens PayPal’s financial media network footprint after its 2023 Ads launch. Our take: As FMN spend is set to reach $1.78B by 2027, PayPal is embedding commerce where consumers already are. These shoppable ads address friction, drive impulse purchases, and position PayPal as a safeguard against rising AI-driven agentic commerce.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

TikTok Shop has emerged for many brands as a pivotal marketplace for discovery and sales. Some 50% of US consumers take product recommendation suggestions from influencers on TikTok Shop, according to February 2024 data from PartnerCentric.

The news: President Donald Trump is expected to sign another executive order extending TikTok’s sale deadline as the current June 19 deadline approaches, marking the third extension since Trump took office. Our take: Trump is likely to continue extending TikTok’s sale deadline—but with each extension, brand confidence plummets further as the platform’s long term sustainability remains shrouded in uncertainty. The brands that will be most successful aren’t those that are crossing their fingers for TikTok’s survival, but those that are investing in contingency plans and platform-agnostic strategies that can pivot quickly.

The US-China trade war drives Shein to diversify its sourcing: Shein and Reliance Retail plan to start international sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

Tools like Smart+ and Content Suite help brands find trending creator content, predict ad success, and target more precisely.

US TikTok Shop employees prepare for layoffs: Tariffs and de minimis changes have pushed the platform’s ambitious commerce goal further out of reach.

Discounts are a primary motivator for TikTok Shop purchases: But that tactic may not be sustainable for sellers reeling from the impact of China tariffs.

Shein, Temu take advantage of tariff reprieve: Shein is raising prices while Temu resumes China shipments, as both retailers try to undo a sales slump.

The biggest ecommerce disruptors face a reckoning: The closing of the de minimis exemption is forcing Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop to pivot, but it isn’t clear that shoppers will follow.

ByteDance restructures TikTok Shop’s US operations: The move reflects growing dissatisfaction with the unit’s performance, as well as a potential change in strategy as uncertainty threatens growth.

Walmart announces lengthy beauty sale as it looks to protect its advantage: The retailer is expanding its assortment and refining the in-store experience to appeal to a wider variety of shoppers.

TikTok is restructuring its governance and experience team: The move affects marketplace safety within TikTok Shop and may be a response to the platform’s underperformance last year.

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US—along with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?