The triopoly looks stronger, but it's digital that's getting bigger. Amazon, Google, and Meta now command 58.8% of total US ad dollars, up from 47.1% in 2020. But that's not an indication that the triopoly's control of the digital ad market is growing.

Alphabet posted strong Q2 results, with Search ad revenue up 12% YoY and YouTube ad revenue climbing 13%. But analysts and advertisers are asking tougher questions as the company shifts toward AI-led formats like AI Overviews and Gemini. Google declined to provide clear data on ROI, clickthroughs, or user engagement, fueling concerns about monetization in a no-click world. Licensing costs for LLM training, brand safety, and competition from ChatGPT and Perplexity are all in focus. While YouTube continues to lead in streaming ad growth, the future of Google’s ad engine may hinge on transparency, AI accountability, and performance parity.

The trend: Consumers generally find that AI-generated responses to their online health queries are only somewhat reliable, according to a new survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) of the University of Pennsylvania. Our take: As Google’s AI gets smarter, healthcare and pharma websites will lose search traffic. Google is in a race with OpenAI and other tech players to make its AI more intelligent and improve users’ search experiences. Other consumers will conduct more health queries on platforms like ChatGPT. Brands and publishers must optimize content for AI rather than for search, but they should also be developing strategies to connect more with consumers on non-search channels such as social media and CTV.

Our midyear report revisits the top trends we named in early 2025 to see what’s shaping the market, evolving fast, or fading in the rearview mirror.

The news: In the wake of Google’s impressive earnings report, YouTube is getting more creative AI tools on YouTube Shorts for both creators and advertisers. YouTube added an image-to-video generative AI (genAI) tool to Shorts, which can turn a photo into a 6-second video, powered by Google’s Veo 2. It also introduced AI-powered tools that resize ads to fit Shorts’ format. Our take: These new tools could help YouTube outpace rivals by combining TikTok-style virality with Google’s deep AI infrastructure. Instead of recycling or repurposing long-form assets, marketers should push more budget to testing Shorts-first content. A/B testing with Shorts’ new AI resizing tool and audience-specific, unique content for mobile and CTV can help determine which content can be converted with AI for both platforms and which needs to be remade and retargeted.

The news: Google’s AI Overviews feature gets users offline and out of search quickly, making it harder for brands and websites to capture attention and clicks. Only 8% of Google users whose search triggered an AI Overview clicked on a link, per Pew Research. Among those who didn’t see an AI summary, nearly twice as many (15%) clicked a link. Our take: Google’s AI tools offer fast answers, but they’re cutting off engagement before it can begin. For publishers, brands, and creators, that means fewer opportunities to connect, convert, or even be seen. Prioritize visibility on platforms favored by AI Overviews, like YouTube and Reddit, and strengthen owned channels like newsletters and apps to help boost appearance in results while reducing dependence on traffic from Google.

GenAI will reach about 51% of US internet users by 2029 as growth stabilizes, with search dominating use cases and Gen Z leading adoption. Amid rising competition from Google and others, ChatGPT will maintain dominance. Brands must adapt to AI-mediated customer relationships.

The news: Google is looking to sign licensing deals with more publishers, per Bloomberg, to improve its products and address the threat of dwindling AI training resources. It’s launching a pilot project to partner with about 20 national news outlets, which could help ease tensions between Big Tech players and the publishers that are demanding compensation for their content. Our take: Google’s increased effort to license more media content shows its gearing up for a future in which AI-generated summaries dominate search. As this shift occurs, brands will need to focus on generative engine optimization (GEO) to get their content into AI summaries, such as by including concise takeaways that LLMs can surface. Preparing for a world where more premium content is behind paywalls could also include deeper publisher partnerships.

The news: Despite global cuts in ad budgets, several companies are diving head-first into their own ad offerings to diversify revenues. HP is reportedly pitching HP Media Network, an ad network highlighting laptop and desktop ads. The move includes ads on HP computers and apps, offsite ads, placements in social and email campaigns, and a free ad-supported TV service. Our take: Introducing ad offerings isn’t necessarily a lost cause—but knowing how to position new ad products is key to succeeding in a time when advertisers are increasingly hesitant to invest without measurable results.

AI is upending every aspect of marketing, from neuro-contextual ads that read emotions to autonomous shopping agents that make purchasing decisions. As tech giants consolidate control of the sector, six pivotal trends are reshaping advertising, search, and commerce.

Privacy regulations are mounting. Signal loss is accelerating. Omnichannel advertising has become impossibly complex. These forces are driving marketers back to MMM for holistic, privacy-safe measurement.

The news: The vast majority of referral traffic from AI sources comes from desktop users while mobile traffic lingers in single-digit percentages. 94% of ChatGPT referral traffic is from desktop users, per BrightEdge’s The Open Frontier of Mobile AI Search report. Google Gemini’s traffic is 94% desktop versus 5% mobile, while Perplexity’s is 96% desktop and just 3% mobile. Our take: As search engines increasingly reduce organic visibility and prioritize zero-click searches, brands and publishers need to develop unique content strategies for different devices. Providing a mix of long-form, in-depth posts for desktop users along with snappy headlines and skimmable content for those on mobile could help achieve the best of both worlds

The news: OpenAI is preparing to launch a suite of office productivity tools that could let users bypass tools from Microsoft. Users will be able to build and modify presentations and spreadsheets that are compatible with PowerPoint and Excel, per The Information—without using Microsoft’s own apps. Our take: This suite could position OpenAI as a serious contender in the office software space, bypassing years of Microsoft and Google development. Companies using ChatGPT could improve workflows by managing documents, generating content, and executing repetitive tasks from a single interface.

The news: Google is experimenting with AI summaries in Discover—the news feed within its iOS and Android search apps—adding yet another threat to referral traffic for web publishers. Instead of displaying a headline and link to a news story, Discover shows an AI summary with an icon featuring the logo of any cited source. Our take: If users increasingly rely on AI summaries—and if Discover becomes a zero-click search hub—publishers risk further declines in web traffic, imperiling not just ad revenues but the viability of good journalism.

The news: ByteDance is working on lightweight mixed-reality goggles that could directly challenge Meta’s products, per The Information. Our take: If ByteDance can leverage its content ecosystem, creator network, and powerful algorithm, it could carve out a foothold with younger, social media–savvy users. Brands could sponsor AR lenses and place products within digital overlays to turn everyday activities into shoppable moments.

The news: Messaging ads are gaining traction as a key opportunity to reach customers at critical moments after Meta debuted ads in WhatsApp. In an exclusive conversation with EMARKETER, Grant Parker, president of omnichannel ad platform Innnovid, offered his take on the future of the messaging medium. Our take: The path forward for messaging ads relies on how well the format integrates with the user experience rather than interrupting it—necessitating that advertisers invest in this opportunity while accounting for consumer attitudes.

The news: Google snatched AI coding startup Windsurf’s IP out from under OpenAI in an acqui-hire that includes Windsurf’s CEO, co-founder, and some R&D employees. Our take: Google’s nonexclusive licensing approach could help it avoid regulatory pushback, though employees not involved in the deal may be left out to dry. Deals like this show that control over developer tools is becoming a major strategic advantage for tech companies and could indicate that the Big Tech fight for AI talent and executives is only just beginning.

Social search is gaining ground. Roughly two-thirds of US consumers search on at least one social platform in ways that can influence every part of the consumer journey.

The news: Google Chrome could soon face intensified competition from OpenAI and Perplexity. On Wednesday, Perplexity launched its long-awaited agentic AI browser, Comet. It’s currently exclusive to subscribers on its $200-per-month Max plan, but other users can sign up on a waitlist. OpenAI is expected to launch its own browser in the coming weeks, per Reuters, bringing more AI tools to its over 400 million weekly ChatGPT users. As AI search tools continue to expand, companies should plan their generative engine optimization (GEO) strategies now by ensuring content can be summarized by chatbots and that copy in graphics is clear and accessible to AI tools.

Google is launching a new Gmail feature called Manage Subscriptions, giving users a streamlined way to bulk unsubscribe from newsletters and promotional emails. The tool—rolling out across web, Android, and iOS—centralizes subscription management and ranks senders by frequency, making high-volume emailers easier to flag. With fewer barriers to opt-out, brands risk higher unsubscribe rates if they rely on one-size-fits-all content. Gmail's update reflects a broader trend toward more curated inboxes and less tolerance for irrelevant messaging. Marketers now face heightened pressure to improve targeting, pacing, and value—or risk being silently purged by users looking to clean house fast.