The news: The Trump administration recently met with leading retailers, including Amazon and Walmart, to explore ways in which more US consumers can get their prescription medications directly from pharma manufacturers, according to a Bloomberg report. Our take: It’s unrealistic to expect pharma’s middlemen to be cut out anytime soon, as they are so deeply rooted in the US healthcare infrastructure.

The trend: Walmart has begun rolling out “Summer Frights” Halloween displays in about 1,000 stores across the US, featuring quirky early-season items like watermelon jack-o’-lanterns and ghost plushies in Hawaiian shirts. Our take: Walmart is smart to embrace offbeat retail moments like Summerween. While consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, they continue to splurge on seasonal celebrations like Halloween and the holidays. Halloween alone has become a major retail event, with spending hitting $11.6 billion last year—a 31.8% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets—even if they’re feeling spooked by the economy.

The news: Verizon customers can now pay-by-bank through Trustly in Verizon’s brick-and-mortar stores. Our take: As long as the cost of accepting credit cards remains sizable, merchants who have the means to dodge fees will find ways to make pay-by-bank accessible.

The situation: Low-income Americans are feeling squeezed by high prices, declining pay, and public assistance that doesn’t go far enough. Bottom line: Declining after-tax income and tariff-driven inflation mean relief for low-income Americans is unlikely anytime soon. Their budgets will tighten, shrinking grocery baskets and curbing discretionary spending. While Walmart, Dollar General, and other value retailers are currently propped up by higher-income shoppers, that cushion could quickly disappear if those customers expect tax-cut windfalls and return to old spending habits.

Latin America’s ad market will surpass $40 billion this year as it continues to defy economic uncertainty. Rebounds in Argentina and Chile, along with double-digit growth in retail and social media spending, will fuel momentum. Here are the latest trends you need to know.

The news: Walmart is testing dark stores in Dallas and Bentonville, Arkansas, as part of its broader effort to speed up deliveries, per Bloomberg. Our take: Amazon’s latest pledge to offer one- or same-day delivery in 4,000 smaller cities and rural areas by year’s end is the latest salvo in its relentless quest to raise the bar on convenience. For Walmart, keeping pace isn’t optional—it’s essential. Fortunately, Walmart has the scale and infrastructure to compete. Fast delivery isn’t just about logistics; it’s a powerful driver of customer loyalty. When shoppers know they can get essentials like toothpaste at their doorstep within hours, they’re more likely to click the buy button rather than venture out to a store.

The insight: Amazon is trying to figure out how it can benefit from the AI agentic boom without giving shopping agents unfettered access to its site, according to a report by The Information. Our take: While agentic commerce is far from the norm for the time being, retailers need to be prepared. That’s especially true for companies with retail media businesses, given the potential for AI agents to upend their ability to monetize their sites.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

A new four-day format for Amazon’s tentpole event will shake up the playing field.

The news: Walmart-owned Sam’s Club is raising prices on select products in response to cost pressures from the Trump administration’s tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reports. Our take: Sam’s Club is on a roll. The retailer is generating record-high membership levels and plans to accelerate growth by opening about 15 new stores each year while remodeling existing locations. But how Sam’s Club handles tariff-driven price increases could determine whether its momentum continues—or stalls. The retailer faces a delicate balancing act in deciding when to absorb rising costs and when to pass them on. The stakes are high. A misstep could either erode profit margins or drive a decline in membership renewals—both of which are essential to its business model.

The insight: Walmart sees a (near) future where customers will shop directly from their smart TVs—preferably one powered by Vizio, which the retailer purchased for $2.3 billion last year. Our take: Shoppers are gradually becoming more comfortable with the concept of shoppable TV. Whether those occasional behaviors become habit will depend on platforms’ ability to offer ads that are personalized and relevant. That puts Walmart at an advantage, given its troves of first-party data—although it faces tough competition from the likes of Amazon and Roku.

Grocery delivery intermediaries like DoorDash and Uber are gaining ground, offering new ways to reach high-intent shoppers. Meanwhile, retailers like Walmart and Amazon continue to lead with strong delivery infrastructure and valuable customer data.

The news: Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe so customers can pay with the USDC stablecoin at checkout. Our take: Coinbase is the biggest winner in this partnership. Cryptocurrency needs to gain traction with a wide merchant network to accelerate its use, and Shopify represents a huge score for Base.

The news: Auto parts maker Marelli filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, making it one of the first high-profile casualties of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Our take: Not all of Marelli’s problems can be blamed on tariffs. But tariffs and uncertainty have a way of magnifying the cracks in a company’s business—cracks that will become harder to paper over the longer the Trump administration sticks to its hardline tariff policies.

The news: Walmart’s OnePay and Synchrony will issue a new co-brand Mastercard and a private-label card. Our take: The massive retailer’s connectivity between its customer base, supplier relationships, and financing apparatus positions OnePay to be a disruptor on the scene.

The news: Walmart rolled out Sparky, its generative AI (genAI) assistant, to all Walmart app users this week—a preliminary step that puts it closer to achieving its agentic ambitions. Our take: By broadening Sparky’s capabilities, Walmart is trying to position itself not only as a shopping destination, but also as a place where consumers can go when they need everyday life advice or information—such as how to fix a leaky faucet or help with event planning. Whether the retailer succeeds will depend on how well Sparky works, and whether it can convince shoppers to overcome their current skepticism of AI tools.

Retail and commerce media were huge topics at last year’s Cannes Lions festival, and this year, the festival is doubling down on the channel by introducing a new retail media sub-category in the Media Lions and Creative Commerce Lions awards. However, “the tone is definitely shifting” as the industry matures—and faces the threat of tariff-related impacts, according to our analyst, Sarah Marzano.

The trend: Walmart and Amazon are determined to take drone delivery mainstream. Our take: It’s easy to understand the sci-fi appeal of drone delivery—but whether it’s feasible remains a question that retailers are still struggling to answer.

The news: Monthly subscription dog toy company BarkBox is under fire for a leaked Slack message showing the company stepping back from its Pride marketing initiatives. The message claimed that promoting its Pride offerings alienates a large portion of BarkBox’s audience. Our take: The BarkBox backlash highlights that companies are at an inflection point where submitting to political pressures and pulling back on Pride is just as risky as staying the course—but those who remain committed are most likely to benefit in the long run.