The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The insight: Prime Day got off to a strong start, according to Adobe data, despite alternative reports of a dip in spending. Our take: The early Prime Day enthusiasm is an encouraging sign for Amazon, which is counting on the event to not only boost sales but also unlock additional ad revenues. It could also be a good sign for retailers running competing sales. While we ultimately expect the longer sales period to benefit the ecommerce giant, shoppers’ growing awareness of other events—and propensity to comparison-shop—could help retailers like Walmart and Target grow their share of an increasingly lucrative shopping period.

The insight: The vast majority—80%—of automakers’ $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average—which will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn’t fully planned for.

The news: Auto parts maker Marelli filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, making it one of the first high-profile casualties of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Our take: Not all of Marelli’s problems can be blamed on tariffs. But tariffs and uncertainty have a way of magnifying the cracks in a company’s business—cracks that will become harder to paper over the longer the Trump administration sticks to its hardline tariff policies.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: The UK economy contracted by the most in 18 months in April due to the twin pressures of tariffs and tax increases. Our take: The UK economy’s contraction in April sets the stage for another year of tepid growth. Despite a highly publicized (and yet to be finalized) trade deal with the US, macroeconomic uncertainties are set to weigh heavily on corporate and consumer sentiment, while rising household and business expenses will limit investment and consumer spending.

The reality: Tariff-driven grocery price hikes have been relatively modest so far this year. Food and beverage prices rose 2.9% YoY through mid-May, up from 1.7% a year earlier, per Circana. While tariffs haven’t caused a major inflation spike, supply-side shocks—like drought, avian flu, and extreme weather—have pushed up prices on staples such as coffee, eggs, and chocolate. Our take: Tariffs haven’t led to major price hikes yet, but that’s likely to change soon as duties push up costs on goods like seafood, alcohol, and produce. And even before those increases take effect, shoppers are becoming more cautious, more price-sensitive, and quicker to trade down or skip nonessentials altogether.

The news: WPP Media has lowered its global ad spend forecast for 2025 by 1.7%, reaching 6% compared with the 7.7% projected in December. The downgrade is attributed to ongoing trade wars resulting from President Trump’s current tariff policies, with WPP Media president Kate Scott-Dawkins citing “uncertainty.” Our take: Despite global uncertainty, advertisers who remain flexible with data-informed pivots, prioritize performance marketing, and plan for uncertainty will come out on top.

The US-China trade war drives Shein to diversify its sourcing: Shein and Reliance Retail plan to start international sales of India-made Shein-branded clothes within six to 12 months.

The insight: Discounters are experiencing a resurgence as concerns about rising prices and economic stability spur shoppers of all income levels to seek out bargain retailers. Our take: The uncertain environment in many ways benefits Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, whose value initiatives are enabling them to win spending from cautious consumers. But—as with the broader retail industry—tariffs are a costly challenge for all three, particularly as they try to minimize price hikes and maintain their value advantage.

The news: Shein’s and Temu’s influence in the US is fading quickly as both companies cut ad spending and look to Europe for growth. Our take: Shein and Temu are finding that the billions of dollars they plowed into US advertising have not been enough to secure US customers’ loyalty in the face of higher prices. But rather than find ways to extend the longevity of their US businesses, both companies are fleeing to Europe to take advantage of the (currently) more favorable trade environment.

The insight: The gap between Target and its mass merchant competitors Amazon and Walmart is widening. While Amazon and Walmart are consolidating their grip on consumer spending after investments in value and convenience, Target’s largely discretionary assortment and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) controversies are sharply curbing its appeal. Our take: Shoppers are prioritizing necessities over discretionary goods and favoring retailers that offer value and convenience.

Dollar General benefits from “trade-in” behavior among wealthier shoppers: The retailer boosted its outlook as discretionary spending from higher-income consumers offset lower-income caution.

Travel demand is becoming harder to predict: Consumers are waiting until the last moment to make plans as uncertainty complicates spending decisions.

Shifting policies erode consumer spending bit by bit: Looser bank fee rules, weakening appliance and insurance standards, and rising tariffs all combine to strain household budgets.

Tariffs are slowing retail sales growth: A Reuters analysis found the Trump administration’s trade policies have cost companies more than $34 billion in lost sales and higher costs, and that toll keeps rising.

Best Buy will stick to its tariff playbook despite court rulings: The retailer is doing its best to ignore the noise and focus on how best to serve its customers.

The era of tariff-driven trade uncertainty is far from over: A flurry of legal decisions have thrown the administration’s trade policies into limbo, even as many duties remain firmly in place.

Potential tariffs, drug pricing order may not be too disruptive to pharma: However, the administration’s executive orders, proposals, and threats can’t be taken lightly. Drug companies must stay nimble with plans in place for different outcomes.