The number: The Trump administration’s trade policies have cost companies at least $34 billion in lost sales and higher costs, per a Reuters analysis of public companies.

That number likely only scratches the surface, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, professor at the Yale School of Management, told Reuters. “You can double or triple your tally and we'd still say … the magnitude is bound to be far greater than most people realize.”

Uncertainty reigns: The unpredictable nature of tariff policy has injected deep uncertainty into the retail landscape. Retailers are juggling rising input costs, disrupted supply chains, and a near-impossible planning horizon—just as they try to navigate inflation and shifting consumer behavior.

That uncertainty is top of mind for executives: 72% of S&P 500 companies referenced tariffs during Q1 earnings calls, often as a factor behind missed targets or cautious outlooks.

Several companies have sought to quantify the direct toll of tariffs:

• Diageo, owner of Johnnie Walker and Don Julio, warned duties could shave $150 million from its operating profit.
• Gap Inc. said tariffs could cost it up to $150 million this year.
• General Motors expects to incur up to $5 billion in additional costs.
• Kimberly-Clark, maker of Kleenex and Cottonelle, cited a $300 million spike in supply chain costs.

Those estimates only include inputs such as shifts in their supply chain that they can foresee—the unknown ripple effects may be far broader.

The consumer angle: Tariffs are also weighing on consumers.

• Consumer sentiment declined for four straight months before stabilizing in May, per the University of Michigan. “Consumers are quite worried about the future,” wrote survey director Joanne Hsu.
• That anxiety is evident in spending behavior: Inflation-adjusted personal spending rose just 0.1% in April, per the US Commerce Department.

Our take: Tariffs are a drag on both businesses’ bottom lines and consumer confidence. Without clearer policy direction, uncertainty will continue to pressure margins and spending alike.

Go further: View our tariff coverage in our Impact of Tariffs hub, which includes reports like Impact of Tariffs on US Retail Media Ad Spending.