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China’s probe on Nvidia shakes AI’s foundation

The news: China’s antitrust regulator accused Nvidia of violating commitments from its 2020 Mellanox acquisition, intensifying US-China tech tensions. The probe sent Nvidia’s stock down more than 2% in trading before it recouped most of the losses Monday, per The New York Times.

By targeting Nvidia, Beijing struck at the core of US AI leadership while signaling it can weaponize regulation as leverage in the tech war just as Washington blacklists 23 Chinese tech firms

Why it matters: Nvidia dominates the global AI hardware stack, controlling 80% to 92% of the AI accelerator and data center GPU market in 2025, per Yahoo. Its chips power generative AI (genAI) models, cloud platforms, and the data centers that run modern advertising systems. 

Slower redistribution of chips would create mismatches in global supply, driving up GPU prices. 

If Nvidia’s access to China narrows, the ripple effects could be severe:

  • Widespread challenges. The risk isn’t limited to one company. If chip flows slow, the shockwaves will raise costs, stalling innovation, and reshaping the digital ad supply chain marketers rely on.
  • Cloud costs. Giants like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, Oracle, and Google Cloud would be forced to pay more for critical hardware and inevitably pass those costs to enterprise customers.
  • Advertising hit. Ad tech platforms—built on AI engines for media buying, personalization, and measurement—would see higher costs, delayed feature rollouts, and bottlenecks in innovation.

Our take: Beijing’s probe underscores a hard truth—the AI economy runs on fragile supply chains that geopolitics can upend overnight. Nvidia is the keystone holding together AI research, cloud computing, and marketing automation. 

For advertisers and CMOs, the lesson is clear: Don’t treat AI infrastructure as a given. Diversify providers, press vendors on supply chain resilience, and stay nimble in deploying AI tools. In an era where chips are geopolitical weapons, agility matters more than scale.

This content is part of EMARKETER’s subscription Briefings, where we pair daily updates with data and analysis from forecasts and research reports. Our Briefings prepare you to start your day informed, to provide critical insights in an important meeting, and to understand the context of what’s happening in your industry. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.

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