The news: China’s antitrust regulator accused Nvidia of violating commitments from its 2020 Mellanox acquisition, intensifying US-China tech tensions. The probe sent Nvidia’s stock down more than 2% in premarket trading, per The New York Times.

Why it matters: Nvidia controls an estimated 80% to 92% of the AI accelerator and data center GPU market in 2025, per Yahoo, powering everything from generative AI (genAI) models to global data centers. By singling out Nvidia, Beijing is aiming at the heart of US AI dominance just as Washington blacklists 23 Chinese tech firms. 

​​If access to China is blocked, Nvidia may divert chips elsewhere at a slower pace, creating global supply mismatches that drive up GPU prices, forcing Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, Oracle, and Google Cloud to absorb higher costs and pass them down to enterprise customers—including adtech platforms.

Our first take: By pressuring the world’s top AI chip supplier, China is reminding global markets how vulnerable the industry is to regulatory levers and political maneuvers. Nvidia has become the linchpin for everything from genAI models to marketing automation, which means any squeeze on its supply reverberates across industries. 

Advertisers should brace for volatility in the AI tools behind targeting, personalization, and measurement—because fragile supply chains can be upended by geopolitics overnight.

This is our immediate perspective. We’re actively developing this story throughout the day with more research and data from the EMARKETER database. Our in-depth analysis will be included in our client-only Briefings. Non-clients can click here to get a demo of our full platform and coverage.

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