The Thanksgiving shopping weekend delivered record-breaking numbers with nearly 203 million shoppers, according to the National Retail Federation, and Cyber Monday alone generated over $14 billion in online sales, per Adobe. Yet beneath these impressive figures lie contradictions and nuances that paint a more complex picture of consumer behavior during the 2025 holiday season.
The fragile shopper paradox
Despite economic headwinds and cautious consumer sentiment, spending remains robust, but with important caveats.
- While overall spending is up, unit sales are actually down in many categories.
- "A lot of the growth in sales is just being driven by higher prices," said our analyst Rachel Wolff. "Salesforce had the stat that US [order volumes] grew 3%, but there was a 7% jump in average selling price."
This spending pattern isn't uniform across consumer segments. Affluent shoppers whose wages have increased significantly continue to spend freely, while middle and lower-income consumers are becoming more selective with their purchases.
The most dramatic indicator of consumer anxiety came from Gallup, which found consumers in November expected to spend $778 on holiday gifts, $229 less than their October estimate and $234 less than last year.
"This decline is the biggest ever recorded, even surpassing the drop during the financial crisis," Stambor said.
Department stores struggle while value retailers thrive
Traditional mid-market retailers are facing significant challenges despite the overall strong shopping weekend.
- JCPenney, Macy's, and Kohl's all experienced foot traffic declines compared to last year, while Dillard's saw only a minimal 0.5% increase, found Placer.ai.
- This contrasts sharply with the substantial gains at off-price retailers like Ross Dress for Less and T.J.Maxx.
"People are really on the hunt for value," explained Stambor. "It's just a sign that consumers don't associate these department stores with strong value."
Mobile dominates the shopping experience
The shift to mobile commerce has reached a tipping point, fundamentally changing how consumers shop during the holiday season.
- Even on Cyber Monday, a shopping event originally created because people used office computers for online shopping, 57.5% of purchases were made via mobile devices, per Adobe.
- This mobile-first approach is driving other trends, including the growth of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services and social commerce.
"Personal anecdote, I bought everything from my phone, I didn't use my desktop at all," said Wolff, highlighting how mobile has become the default shopping method for many consumers.
TikTok Shop emerges as a retail force
One of the most surprising developments this holiday season has been the rapid rise of social commerce platforms.
- TikTok Shop generated over $500 million in sales during the Black Friday/Cyber Monday period, approximately 1% of total ecommerce spending.
- "That's pretty outrageous when you consider that it's only been around for a little over two years," said Wolff.
This success demonstrates the power of content-driven commerce that combines entertainment, information, and seamless purchasing.
"TikTok Shop, and probably all influencer/creator channels, are much more than just a search engine, they're really a conversion engine now," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian.
AI's impact remains unclear
AI and AI agents influenced 17% of orders placed in the US during Cyber Week, representing approximately $13.5 billion in sales, according to Salesforce. In addition, AI-driven traffic to retail sites increased by 670%, found Adobe.
However, these figures raised some skepticism.
"Is it that people really are using ChatGPT or Perplexity to find products and make decisions for them, or is it they're going on Amazon's website, asking Rufus a couple of questions, and is that the sum total of their interaction with AI?" said Wolff.
While consumers are experimenting with AI tools for gift ideas and deal hunting, most aren't yet relying on them for complete purchase decisions. AI currently serves more as a guide than a conversion driver.
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This article was prepared with the assistance of generative AI tools to support content organization, summarization, and drafting. All AI-generated contributions have been reviewed, fact-checked, and verified for accuracy and originality by EMARKETER editors. Any recommendations reflect EMARKETER’s research and human judgment.
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