New duties of 10% to 12.5% on key US trade partners revive cost pressures at a difficult time for retailers.

Beijing’s probes ahead of Trump-Xi talks heighten uncertainty for retailers.

Tariff strain and US volatility are pushing both companies to focus on international markets.

Rising costs and shaky demand force the CPGs to rethink pricing, innovation, and where to find growth.

Amazon is pushing suppliers to cut prices amid lower China duties and questions over tariffs’ legality

Uniqlo delivered double-digit growth at the end of 2025, outpacing Primark, as shoppers opted for quality over rock-bottom prices.

As manufacturing costs climb, automakers must balance luxury demand with the need for more affordable options to stay competitive.

Consumer spending held up in October, despite broader signs of growing strain on lower- and middle-income consumers. Retail sales rose 3.5% YoY, according to the US Commerce Department. Control group sales—which exclude food services, autos, building materials stores, and gas stations, and are used to calculate GDP—increased 0.8% MoM, the biggest rise in four months. However, the US economy appears increasingly fragile. While spending is growing at a healthy pace for now—largely due to higher-income households with a greater capacity to absorb higher prices and a stronger appetite for discretionary purchases—a softening labor market and tariff-driven inflation could push consumers to pull back next year.

Marketers are feeling less optimistic about business conditions for 2026 than they were a year ago, per a new WARC report. 54% of marketers believe that conditions will improve next year, down from 65% who felt this way about 2025. WARC’s forecast indicates that economic instability will continue causing marketers to adopt more conservative budgeting strategies and sharpen their focus on measurable, performance-driven advertising.

TJX is confident its value proposition will resonate with shoppers this holiday season. Q4 is already “off to a strong start,” CEO Ernie Herrman said, following a better-than-expected Q3. As TJX and other retailers have repeatedly pointed out this year, off-price is one of the few retail sectors that thrives in times of uncertainty. Few retailers can compete with TJX’s value proposition—particularly its range of good-better-best merchandise, which appeals to shoppers of all budgets—and its treasure hunt experience. TJX’s continued momentum shows that retailers that can offer a compelling combination of value and fun stand to outperform this holiday season.

Cracks are beginning to appear in the previously resilient beauty category. Coty, e.l.f. Beauty, and L'Oréal all delivered quarterly performances below expectations as US demand softened. Beauty companies must ride out a number of headwinds, including tariffs, growing price sensitivities, changing category preferences, and a shift in where consumers choose to do their beauty shopping. Keeping ahead of those pressures will require flexibility, and an embrace of ecommerce platforms like Amazon and TikTok Shop.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lifted its outlook for global GDP growth this year citing tariff-related inventory frontloading, AI investments, and Beijing’s stimulus measures. But this resilience may soon fade: Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, as tariffs and uncertainty begin to take their toll.

High tariffs have become an unavoidable part of doing business in the US following the implementation of President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal duties. Retailers are slowly becoming resigned to the fact that higher tariffs are here to stay—for now. But their ability to minimize business disruption is severely hampered by the fact that new tariffs can be imposed at any time, which could immediately turn any attempts to adjust sourcing into sunk costs. As e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin told CNBC, “It’s the uncertainty around the tariffs that make things more difficult.”

The news: President Trump said to CNBC on Tuesday that forthcoming tariffs on pharma products imported to the US could reach 250%. It’s the highest rate on pharma tariffs that Trump has mentioned to date. Our take: 250% is an enormous number, but it’s more of a threat than an end result that will impair the sector. Such a high levy rate will likely spur further manufacturing commitments, which is something Big Pharma is prepared for—especially if they’re given 18 months to move more production to the US.

Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.

The luxury sector is facing a “challenging” and “somewhat unprecedented” environment, Prada Group chairman Patrizio Bertelli said—causing even once-hot brands like the company’s namesake label to lose momentum. Luxury companies for the most part view the current downturn as a cyclical blip in an otherwise robust industry. But the prolonged slump is revealing structural challenges—namely, heavier reliance on American and Chinese consumers, as well as a tendency to lean on price hikes rather than innovation to drive sales.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and “stressed” consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year—a notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain—and are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the “Big Beautiful Bill” curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers’ purchasing decisions.

Snacks maker Mars said it plans to invest an additional $2 billion in US manufacturing through next year to build new facilities and upgrade existing ones in wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs are leading some businesses to boost their US footprint, and we may see more investment announcements. But a key consideration is whether these expansion announcements will represent substantive, job-creating initiatives, or if they are largely symbolic moves designed to support the US government’s current messaging around American manufacturing.

Tariffs could reshape the fashion calendar as brands rethink their merchandising strategies to limit exposure. While Vince’s decision to lengthen its spring season was borne out of necessity, it could herald a larger shift in how fashion brands approach their calendars—particularly as tariffs force tougher decisions about what and how much inventory to bring in. Companies can either go faster—taking a page from the fast-fashion industry and launching new styles quickly and often—or slower, à la Vince, depending upon their customers’ preferences.

Deckers and Puma are proceeding with caution as tariffs complicate US operations and consumer sentiment. Of the two companies, Deckers is better equipped to manage the uncertain environment. It has considerably more pricing power than Puma, giving it more room to offset tariff costs. It also has significantly more runway to grow outside the US: International revenues surged 50% in Q1, while Puma is facing weakness in Asia and Europe in addition to North America.