US paid retail membership fee revenues will be higher than ever before in 2025, reaching $46.39 billion, according to our May 2024 forecast. That’s an increase of 10.8% YoY, with over half (51.8%) of these revenues going to Amazon.

Beauty’s run of strong retail sales growth is winding down, but new audiences and sales channels will offer opportunities for savvy brands and retailers to regain momentum.

The National Retail Federation (NRF)’s Big Show is happening in New York City this weekend, and will offer an opportunity for retail media networks (RMNs) to pitch themselves to advertisers. Even though retail media is huge—exceeding $62 billion in US ad spend this year per our forecast, most of those ad dollars will go to the biggest RMNs. The remaining players are vying over the same $8.58 billion that isn't scooped up by Amazon, Walmart, or Target.

Growth rates will decline, but digital grocery will remain a key focus for retailers looking to drive incremental sales dollars in ecommerce.

This report presents five of the most intriguing and/or under-the-radar forecasts for 2025 that clients should be aware of, as compiled by our forecasting team.

Organizations will prioritize governance in 2025 as they ramp up genAI investments in pursuit of business transformation.

TikTok Shop plans to launch in Mexico next month: The move suggests the company is unfazed by the potential US ban.

While our analysts have shared their major trends for the year ahead, the newsletter team has a few additional thoughts. In 2025, we think retailers will focus on personalized in-store experiences and technology to boost foot traffic and engagement while Amazon brings its AI assistant, Rufus, to brick-and-mortar locations. Discount retailers will struggle to retain customers, leading them to diversify or launch marketplaces to stay competitive.

The economy is looking good as the calendar turns to 2025: Consumers are in a good position to spend, but the new administration’s policies could change that trajectory.

The year of AI: Artificial intelligence invaded all aspects of life in 2024, from work to play and generation to generation. New genAI players appeared to take on megaliths like Google and Meta. It would be a copout to say that 2025 will bring more of the same, but we expect startups to begin taking more market share from Big Tech and challenging the status quo.

Walmart dominated the US retail landscape in 2024: The mass merchant’s ability to offer savings and convenience won over shoppers, and its growing ecommerce and advertising businesses are helping it make inroads against Amazon.

Amazon strengthened its grip on ecommerce in 2024: The retailer warded off growing competition from Temu and Walmart by improving delivery speeds, offering deals, and enhancing Prime benefits.

Shoppers were willing and able to spend this holiday season: Even as consumers focused on value, sales rose 3.8% YoY from November 1 to December 24.

A bad in-store experience will drive many shoppers online: Consumers are frustrated by how many items are locked up and how difficult it can be to find help.

Back in January, the Retail Daily newsletter editors made some retail predictions for 2024. While we were right about Amazon opening fulfillment centers out of physical stores, we were wrong about more digitally native brands partnering with Amazon. Want the full rundown? Here’s how we did.

Consumers focused on value in 2024: Retailers and brands like Aldi, e.l.f. Beauty, Temu, and Walmart benefited from consumers' growing cost consciousness.

Christmas Day is less than a week away, but some consumers are still chipping away at their lists. That’s why Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Dollar General are announcing last-minute holiday deals for consumers seeking the perfect gift.

Here are three strategies retailers can learn from big tech players to pump up on-site ad revenues.

Retailers looking to capitalize on retail media’s growth opportunities need to understand the market developments, formats, and challenges shaping ad spending in Latin America.

November retail sales surge past expectations: Shoppers shifted their spending up a gear amid a flurry of deals and concerns over tariff-related price hikes.