Walmart’s OnePay will reportedly offer crypto trading and custody through its banking app, per CNBC. Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon can save substantial margin on each transaction if they can get consumers to use their own crypto instead of traditional payment rails. While the ramp up to stablecoin issuance would take time, more operationally ready ventures like crypto-powered remittances stand as easier plays to execute.

Fiserv will acquire StoneCastle Cash Management, giving its payment ecosystem a new source of liquidity. Broadening its merchant services through stablecoin issuance may take the burden off of Clover to drive revenues, which has struggled recently with weaker adoption amid a stacked POS space. But partnered merchants like DoorDash will have to make a case to workers and customers alike that stablecoin payments are as valuable as fiat. With only 1.8% of the US population using cryptocurrency, per our forecast, the general population will have to be persuaded that FIUSD—or retailers’ own stablecoins—really have the utility to pay bills and rent just as easily as a regular paycheck.

Stripe updated a host of products during Stripe Tour New York. tripe’s use of AI for fraud detection and a frictionless redirected checkout will give merchants increased security and better margins. For ecommerce companies, the ability to seize more of the revenues from in-app sales could motivate directing more marketing promotions aimed at driving customers to download their apps for checkout for a discount.

MoneyGram launched a mobile app that uses stablecoins to make cross-border payments easier and cheaper. Investment in crypto services can help MoneyGram secure loyal patrons as its rivals also offer stablecoin-backed cross border payments.

The news: Crypto exchange Gemini launched an XRP edition of the Gemini credit card in collaboration with Ripple, per a press release. Cardholders will receive XRP as a reward for everyday spend. Our take: We forecast the amount of US crypto payment users remains low, at 1.3% of the population. However, the share of people who use crypto at all is more than seven times as large—suggesting Gemini’s new card could attract a larger base than cards designed around using crypto at checkout.

The news: The State of Wyoming debuted its Frontier Stable Token (FRNT) across seven blockchains in partnership with LayerZero. Our take: While stablecoins were originally framed as a faster and cheaper alternative to traditional payment methods, the crowding field of available tokens—coupled with their limited acceptance networks—appears to create more transaction disruption than streamlining.

The news: A coalition of major US banks is pushing for reforms to the recently enacted GENIUS Act. The banks are concerned that a loophole could give non-bank competitors advantages over more regulated traditional banks, per AInvest. Our take: The main challenge for traditional banks is that they have to compete on a new front with different rules. But it’s also a major risk to their customers, who could not only move their money over to competitors’ accounts—but also lose it. While a 4% reward rate is highly attractive and far exceeds most traditional savings account interest, these stablecoin holdings are not necessarily protected by FDIC insurance. Without this insurance, a platform failure could mean consumers lose their entire investment—a risk that does not exist with a federally insured bank deposit.

The news: Western Union will acquire International Money Express (Intermex) in a deal with a total equity and enterprise value of $500 million, per a press release. Our take: Increasing its retail footprint in the US positions can help Western Union capture more remittance outflow from the US, which we forecast to hit $92.58 billion this year.

The news: Mastercard and Visa reported strong revenue growth in their most recent quarters. Visa’s net revenues rose 14% YoY in its fiscal year Q3 (ended June 30, 2025). Mastercard’s net revenues for the period rose 17% YoY. Our take: Both Visa and Mastercard understand that they need to innovate to keep their infrastructure competitive in light of the explosion of alternative payment rails—most recently stablecoin initiatives, made possible by the recent passage of the Genius Act.

The news: PayPal will enable Pay with Crypto in an attempt to streamline cross-border payments for US merchants through its intricate network of digital wallet and cryptocurrency integrations in the coming weeks. In the meantime, US consumers will have to break age-old payment habits: Only 8% of crypto owners who use cryptocurrency to purchase goods and services do so daily; most only use it up to four times a year. Building these consumer payment preferences will take time, so PayPal should remain patient.

The news: We’ve recently covered a fintech, a stablecoin issuer, an auto manufacturer, foreign banks, and credit unions that are considering, applying for, or in the process of acquiring US banking licenses. Some have already succeeded, inspiring others to follow suit. And according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, banking charter applications have increased 70% since 2024. Our take: We predict traditional banks will push for regulatory changes that prevent the steady inflow of new banks that haven’t had to follow the more stringent requirements of the past. Banks’ long-standing customer relationships will be a central pillar of their defense strategy. Banks must increasingly leverage their established trust, extensive branch networks, and comprehensive product suites to highlight their stability and one-stop-shop convenience compared to specialized fintechs or more limited new entrants.

The news: President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, known by its shorthand as the GENIUS Act, during a White House ceremony on Friday. Our take: The GENIUS Act ushers in the clarity and legitimacy sought after by crypto players and traditional FIs alike.

The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.

The news: Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied for a US trust bank license, less than a month after its IPO launch. It had planned to make this move before the launch. Our take: We’ve recently covered multiple fintechs launching IPOs, and moving toward traditional banking—including acquiring licenses. Its decision which aligns with both of these trends signals how stablecoins become more mainstream in the banking world. Plus, Circle’s status as a national trust bank could enhance trust among customers who are still on the fence about investing.

Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.

The news: Coinbase will launch its first credit card on the American Express network this fall. Our take: This card could be a strong retention play to keep existing users from using an alternative crypto exchange but likely won’t move the needle on broader adoption.

The news: Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe so customers can pay with the USDC stablecoin at checkout. Our take: Coinbase is the biggest winner in this partnership. Cryptocurrency needs to gain traction with a wide merchant network to accelerate its use, and Shopify represents a huge score for Base.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: The USDC stablecoin issuer Circle’s IPO exceeded investor expectations—its stock price ended the day up 168%. Our take: Circle’s IPO signals increasing investor optimism in crypto, particularly stablecoins. As stablecoins become a more accepted element of our financial infrastructure, financial providers should prepare for how to incorporate or interact with this element of the payments space.

This decision feeds into the rising enthusiasm for stablecoin as the future of payments.