The news: Western Union will acquire International Money Express (Intermex) in a deal with a total equity and enterprise value of $500 million, per a press release. Our take: Increasing its retail footprint in the US positions can help Western Union capture more remittance outflow from the US, which we forecast to hit $92.58 billion this year.

The news: Mastercard and Visa reported strong revenue growth in their most recent quarters. Visa’s net revenues rose 14% YoY in its fiscal year Q3 (ended June 30, 2025). Mastercard’s net revenues for the period rose 17% YoY. Our take: Both Visa and Mastercard understand that they need to innovate to keep their infrastructure competitive in light of the explosion of alternative payment rails—most recently stablecoin initiatives, made possible by the recent passage of the Genius Act.

The news: PayPal will enable Pay with Crypto in an attempt to streamline cross-border payments for US merchants through its intricate network of digital wallet and cryptocurrency integrations in the coming weeks. In the meantime, US consumers will have to break age-old payment habits: Only 8% of crypto owners who use cryptocurrency to purchase goods and services do so daily; most only use it up to four times a year. Building these consumer payment preferences will take time, so PayPal should remain patient.

The news: We’ve recently covered a fintech, a stablecoin issuer, an auto manufacturer, foreign banks, and credit unions that are considering, applying for, or in the process of acquiring US banking licenses. Some have already succeeded, inspiring others to follow suit. And according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, banking charter applications have increased 70% since 2024. Our take: We predict traditional banks will push for regulatory changes that prevent the steady inflow of new banks that haven’t had to follow the more stringent requirements of the past. Banks’ long-standing customer relationships will be a central pillar of their defense strategy. Banks must increasingly leverage their established trust, extensive branch networks, and comprehensive product suites to highlight their stability and one-stop-shop convenience compared to specialized fintechs or more limited new entrants.

The news: President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, known by its shorthand as the GENIUS Act, during a White House ceremony on Friday. Our take: The GENIUS Act ushers in the clarity and legitimacy sought after by crypto players and traditional FIs alike.

The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.

The news: Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied for a US trust bank license, less than a month after its IPO launch. It had planned to make this move before the launch. Our take: We’ve recently covered multiple fintechs launching IPOs, and moving toward traditional banking—including acquiring licenses. Its decision which aligns with both of these trends signals how stablecoins become more mainstream in the banking world. Plus, Circle’s status as a national trust bank could enhance trust among customers who are still on the fence about investing.

Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.

The news: Coinbase will launch its first credit card on the American Express network this fall. Our take: This card could be a strong retention play to keep existing users from using an alternative crypto exchange but likely won’t move the needle on broader adoption.

The news: Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe so customers can pay with the USDC stablecoin at checkout. Our take: Coinbase is the biggest winner in this partnership. Cryptocurrency needs to gain traction with a wide merchant network to accelerate its use, and Shopify represents a huge score for Base.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: The USDC stablecoin issuer Circle’s IPO exceeded investor expectations—its stock price ended the day up 168%. Our take: Circle’s IPO signals increasing investor optimism in crypto, particularly stablecoins. As stablecoins become a more accepted element of our financial infrastructure, financial providers should prepare for how to incorporate or interact with this element of the payments space.

This decision feeds into the rising enthusiasm for stablecoin as the future of payments.

Changing regulatory stances and incentives could coax banks into crypto to avoid payments disintermediation.

Economic uncertainty could derail its efforts to reinvigorate growth

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The payments giant also deepened its tie-up with Coinbase to make buying and using the asset more accessible

The card network is positioning itself at the forefront of the crypto payments space, centered on stablecoins

The stablecoin giant is exploring plans to launch a US-specific token and POS solution

The platform can help the card program better compete with traditional cards from large issuers