The news: President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, known by its shorthand as the GENIUS Act, during a White House ceremony on Friday. Our take: The GENIUS Act ushers in the clarity and legitimacy sought after by crypto players and traditional FIs alike.

The news: Bank of America notched a record second quarter for revenues, per Bloomberg. Revenues totaled $26.61 billion, lower than analysts’ anticipated $26.72 billion. Our take: Bank of America’s tight underwriting standards—its average credit cardholder FICO score is 777—have created a strong stable of superprime cardholders to drive volume through tempting rewards offerings.

The news: Stablecoin issuer Circle has applied for a US trust bank license, less than a month after its IPO launch. It had planned to make this move before the launch. Our take: We’ve recently covered multiple fintechs launching IPOs, and moving toward traditional banking—including acquiring licenses. Its decision which aligns with both of these trends signals how stablecoins become more mainstream in the banking world. Plus, Circle’s status as a national trust bank could enhance trust among customers who are still on the fence about investing.

Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.

The news: Coinbase will launch its first credit card on the American Express network this fall. Our take: This card could be a strong retention play to keep existing users from using an alternative crypto exchange but likely won’t move the needle on broader adoption.

The news: Shopify partnered with Coinbase and Stripe so customers can pay with the USDC stablecoin at checkout. Our take: Coinbase is the biggest winner in this partnership. Cryptocurrency needs to gain traction with a wide merchant network to accelerate its use, and Shopify represents a huge score for Base.

Tariff uncertainty, billion-dollar merger and acquisition deals, and a jump in social commerce will create new dynamics in the payments industry in H2 2025. Burgeoning tech like agentic AI and stablecoins will further shake up the space.

The news: The USDC stablecoin issuer Circle’s IPO exceeded investor expectations—its stock price ended the day up 168%. Our take: Circle’s IPO signals increasing investor optimism in crypto, particularly stablecoins. As stablecoins become a more accepted element of our financial infrastructure, financial providers should prepare for how to incorporate or interact with this element of the payments space.

This decision feeds into the rising enthusiasm for stablecoin as the future of payments.

Changing regulatory stances and incentives could coax banks into crypto to avoid payments disintermediation.

Economic uncertainty could derail its efforts to reinvigorate growth

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The payments giant also deepened its tie-up with Coinbase to make buying and using the asset more accessible

The card network is positioning itself at the forefront of the crypto payments space, centered on stablecoins

The stablecoin giant is exploring plans to launch a US-specific token and POS solution

The platform can help the card program better compete with traditional cards from large issuers

As hype over the asset class explodes, players want to capitalize on early-mover advantages

The company will lean on AI and stablecoins to maintain its momentum