Instagram has become an essential platform for ecommerce businesses’ social media strategies. Brands that leverage the social platform’s Instagram Story ads can boost their online presence, broaden their audience, and enhance engagement to achieve success.

With user penetration nearly complete and time spent starting to plateau or decline on many platforms, social networks have run out of easy paths to incremental budget among their advertisers.

The 2023 upfront market will likely be the last one transacted primarily on Nielsen’s legacy currency. A shift from traditional TV to digital video advertising is the main factor driving this change.

While Meta struggles with innovation and attracting younger users, at Snapchat, innovation and Gen Z users are in high supply. So why is the company struggling? “Snap doesn’t lack when it comes to innovation,” our analyst Jasmine Enberg said on a recent episode of our “Behind the Numbers” podcast. “But there are serious questions about the health of its core business, and it really needs to focus on turning those things around.”

Total media ad spending in the US will pass the $350 billion mark this year, but growth is slow at just 3.8%, according to our forecast. “That is not great compared to almost anything in recent memory; however, there is a U-shape to this line,” our analyst Ethan Cramer-Flood said during our “US Digital Ad Spend Outlook” webinar. Connected TV and retail media will prove to be bright spots, but social media could be a challenge.

US digital ad spend growth will return to double digits next year at 11.2% growth, following 2023’s slower growth of 7.8%. Growth certainly won’t return to the 37.6% growth we saw in 2021, but it will increase steadily. Come 2025, US digital ad spend will pass $300 billion and keep climbing to nearly $400 billion by the end of 2027.

Digital ad spending will increase slightly faster this year than in 2022, but the bump will be minimal. Total media ad spending growth will roughly hold steady. But there are parts of the world where spending is surging.

Worldwide mobile AR revenues will more than double from $18.67 billion this year to $39.81 billion in 2027, per ARtillery Intelligence. These figures encompass revenues from both consumer and enterprise applications, such as productivity software, advertising/marketing applications, consumer spending on in-app purchases and premium apps, entertainment and games development, and retail/ecommerce enablement software.

Digital will help keep total media ad spending buoyant this year, just. A rebound is expected for 2024, with video advertising growing faster than any other format. Proportionally, though, video spend will remain relatively small in France and Germany.

Google and Meta’s combined share of the US digital ad market dropped below 50% in 2022, and in just a few years that figure will be down to 43.0%. The triopoly is losing share now, as well; Amazon’s ascent will not be fast enough to offset the weakness of the other two giants.

Pending legislation may require Meta and Google to pay domestic news publishers for linking to articles. Both companies say they will block news content if it passes.

On today's episode, we discuss how Meta was able to snap its negative ad revenue growth streak, how Reels is helping Instagram grow time spent on the platform, and what Meta's metaverse plans are at this point. "In Other News," we talk about what Americans actually want in a social media platform and whether BeReal's new "Bonus" feature can help keep its momentum going. Tune in to the discussion with our analyst Debra Aho Williamson.

Last month, Meta said it would use generative AI in ad creation by the end of the year. Not long after, Google announced generative AI ad plans of its own in the form of tools that will “remix” ads based on client goals. Neither company has released details of what these AI updates will look like, but the changes are big news for advertisers, agencies, and everyone in between.

Both companies are fighting to grab a larger share of digital ad spending growth.

The battle against TikTok took center stage at this week’s NewFronts, as Meta, Snapchat, and YouTube unveiled new ad products tied to short-form video. While none of them can compete with TikTok’s lock on the youth market or the enormous amount of time its users spend on the app, these new ad products are an attempt to bring Reels, Spotlight, and Shorts into greater parity with TikTok’s ad formats.

TikTok is going all-in on in-app purchases; Meta is focused on shoppable ads; and YouTube hopes to gain a competitive advantage through its strong creator relationships. All of this is happening as we forecast US retail social commerce sales will grow nearly 30% this year to hit $68.92 billion

Ad spending is looking shaky for many of the legacy formats across digital and traditional. New channels have arrived, however, and there are bright spots. This year could be rough, but 2024 is looking better.

Meta's major monetization of minors mishap: The FTC has proposed to bar the social giant from using children's data for their ad business.

Mobile and video formats will be key to a recovering ad market in the years ahead.

Shoppable media is gaining momentum as brands look for ways to narrow the gap between discovery and purchase. Just this month, Pinterest, NBCUniversal, Meta, and Yahoo announced shoppable media updates. From AI to QR codes, we dive deeper into these developments and why they may give companies an edge.