Despite bankruptcy rumors, Carvana will be the fastest-growing retail ecommerce company in the US both this year and next year, according to our forecast. In second place this year is Chewy, signaling the strength of category-focused retailers.

US consumers are increasingly turning to Walmart.com, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok to start their online shopping searches, according to Jungle Scout. Amazon, search engines, and Facebook have lost share since Q1 2022.

Social media newcomer Lemon8 racked up about 64,000 US downloads per day, on average, in recent weeks, according to Apptopia. The platform, which comes from TikTok owner ByteDance, capitalizes on the shopability of photos and short videos with its Pinterest-meets-Instagram format.

TikTok eclipsed Twitter, Pinterest, and Snapchat in US users within just a few years, according to our estimates, and now it’s chasing Instagram. After years of exceptional growth, TikTok will boast more than 100 million US monthly users in 2023—unless lawmakers stand in its way.

Millennials are the age group most likely to buy products or services advertised on podcasts, according to a survey of US podcast listeners by Morning Consult. These ads are also more likely to drive purchases among listeners earning more than $100,000 per year.

Last October, we projected that Twitter’s 2023 ad revenues would reach $4.74 billion worldwide. Since Elon Musk’s takeover, we’ve cut our projection by nearly $2 billion, to just $2.98 billion, as the app grapples with brand safety issues, confusing policies, and broken technology.

Amazon will increase its share of US ecommerce sales in five product categories next year, per our forecast. The biggest gains will be in health and personal care, furniture and home furnishings, and apparel and accessories.

US spending on identity solutions and services will increase by 13.0% YoY to reach $10.4 billion this year, per the Winterberry Group.

VC funding for creator-focused startups has plummeted in the US, even as these startups multiply. Last year, funding dropped by 51% YoY, while the number of creator-related startups increased by 550%, per The Information. This is part of a greater trend of cooling VC investment.

Nearly half of US millennials are members of a travel loyalty or rewards program, the highest among all generations, according to a Morning Consult survey. The higher their income, the more likely US adults are to belong to such a program—more than three-quarters of those earning $100,000 or more hold a membership.

Nearly three-quarters of US TikTok users will also use Instagram this year, making it the most popular alternative to the social video app, per our forecast. That’s good news for Instagram Reels, which is positioning itself as a viable successor in the event of a US TikTok ban.

When asked about generative AI, 62% of US adults strongly or somewhat agreed that it can save time and resources in the workplace, but there were concerns about the effectiveness and accuracy of its written work, according to Ipsos.

YouTube’s ad business took a hit in the latter half of 2022, with revenues down year over year in both Q3 and Q4. The company has since hired a new CEO, hiked YouTube TV prices, and introduced podcasts to YouTube Music to try to reverse the downward trend.

Nearly 90% of US marketers said AI or machine learning technology saves their company time and money, while 82% said the content it generates is as good as—if not better than—human-generated content, per Capterra polling from last July. At the time of the survey, marketers said implementation can take a long time, though this perspective may have shifted since ChatGPT burst on the scene.

After a slight dip in 2022, US retail ecommerce sales growth will accelerate each year through 2027, according to our forecast. By that point, ecommerce sales will reach $1.736 trillion and make up one-fifth of total retail sales.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

TikTok will see 11.6% global user growth this year, according to our forecast. That’s about double Snapchat’s and Instagram’s expected growth. The ByteDance-owned app will boast more than 900 million monthly users this year—if it manages to stay in the US, its biggest country.

Most US adults will click through a digital ad that’s relevant to their interests, according to a CivicScience survey. That’s an improvement from March 2021, when 57% of US adults said they were not likely to click through these ads. As of January 2023, that figure dropped to 44%.

Fifty-six percent of marketers in North America said that in-depth analytics drives their data clean room strategies, according to the CMO Council. Other leading drivers included the ability to measure campaign results (54%) and ease of data integration (52%).

As the possibility of a TikTok ban grows in the US, users are looking for other platforms to satisfy their short-video needs. In a Cowen survey, 26% of adult US users said they’d switch to Instagram Reels, and 21% said they’d head to YouTube Shorts. Meanwhile, 37% had no plans to use another short-video app.