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After a slight dip in 2022, US retail ecommerce sales growth will accelerate each year through 2027, according to our forecast. By that point, ecommerce sales will reach $1.736 trillion and make up more than one-fifth of total retail sales.

Beyond the chart: This marks a return to pre-pandemic growth rates for ecommerce, which had been growing between 13% and 16% every year prior to 2020, per our “US Ecommerce by Category Forecast 2023” report.

Digital grocery (comprising both the food and beverage and the health and personal care categories) will be the largest driver of growth over the next few years, though auto and parts, toys and hobby, and office equipment and supplies will also see above-average sales growth.

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Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.