The back-to-school season is gaining momentum for retailers in 2026. It’s worth $85.42 billion in US retail sales, according to EMARKETER. And the season keeps starting earlier as price-conscious families spread purchases out across the summer. This FAQ covers the season's timeframe, top categories, and channel preferences, and how marketers should position campaigns in 2026.

How big is back-to-school spending?

Expected to hit $85.42 billion in US retail sales this year, back-to-school is accelerating 3.3% year-over-year, up from 2.5% annual growth in 2025, per EMARKETER. A full $53.06 billion will come from physical retail sales. Another $32.36 billion is expected from back-to-school season retail ecommerce sales. A big driver behind the season is college-bound students, whose families will spend $36.16 billion, up 3.9% YoY. Families with students in grades K-12 will spend $49.26% this back-to-school season, up a more modest 2.8% from 2025. College-bound students represent a 42.3% share of back-to-school retail sales, up from 39.9% in 2022. The season has expanded from backpacks, school supplies, and new outfits to include big-ticket electronics, dorm furniture, and other accessories for college life.

When does back-to-school shopping actually start?

The season begins earlier than most marketing calendars assume. Two-thirds (67%) of back-to-school shoppers had already begun purchasing by early July, per the NRF. Price anxiety drives the early start: 51% of back-to-school families said they were shopping earlier due to concerns about tariff-related price increases, per the same survey. The season now effectively opens in June, overlapping with mid-summer deal events like Prime Day, and stretches through September as college move-in dates arrive. For marketers, a campaign that launches in August reaches a market where most of the spending decisions are already made.

What do families buy for back-to-school, and where?

Consumer electronics anchors the back-to-school season, serving as the leading category for college students and K-12 families, per the NRF. Clothing and accessories was the next-highest category for K-12 students, while the second-highest category for college students was dorm or apartment furnishings. While total physical store sales will still be greater than retail ecommerce sales for back-to-school, digital sales are growing faster. Back-to-school ecommerce sales are expected to climb 5.6% over 2025, while physical store sales are expected up only 1.9% for the back-to-school season, per EMARKETER. Digital channels are increasing their share of back-to-school purchases.

How are tariffs and the economy shaping back-to-school 2026?

Price pressure is the season's backdrop. Retailers pulled inventory forward to get ahead of a fresh set of tariffs, with early peak-season buying masking a cautious demand outlook, per a June 2026 EMARKETER article, while energy-driven inflation erodes purchasing power, per EMARKETER. The same value-seeking behavior reshaping retail broadly, from warehouse clubs to off-price chains, concentrates back-to-school spending around deals. This suggests 2026's season will again reward early, price-led promotions over late brand campaigns.

How should marketers plan back-to-school campaigns in 2026?

Match the calendar and the budget-stretched shopper. Priorities:

• Launch in June or July, not August. With two-thirds of shoppers buying by early July, awareness and offers must land before summer deal events capture the budget.
• Lead with price certainty. Tariff-era shoppers respond to locked-in prices, bundles, and price-match guarantees that remove the fear of buying too early or too late.
• Merchandise the full basket. Electronics carry the highest ticket, but supplies and apparel drive trip frequency..
• Treat college as a separate campaign. The college season has different timing, bigger baskets, and dorm-and-tech categories that K-12 messaging misses.
• Coordinate with tentpole events. Align back-to-school offers with July deal moments, where comparison shoppers are already active, rather than competing against them.

We prepared this article with the assistance of generative AI tools and stand behind its accuracy, quality, and originality.

EMARKETER forecast data was current at publication and may have changed. EMARKETER clients have access to up-to-date forecast data. To explore EMARKETER solutions, click here.