The news: Import volumes for H1 2026 are expected to rise 0.6% to 12.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) thanks to a 9.7% YoY increase in import volumes in May and a 14.7% gain in June, per the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker report.

The context is important, however:

• Those May and June gains come against easy comparisons, as imports fell sharply last year due to uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
• This year’s surge suggests an early peak season, as retailers pull forward inventory ahead of a fresh set of tariffs.

Looking ahead: Despite the YoY gains in May and June, volumes are expected to trail the past year throughout much of H2 2026 as tariff uncertainty, elevated fuel costs tied to the war in the Middle East, and broader inflationary pressures weigh on demand.

Consumer sentiment is already reflecting that strain. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is near historic lows, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as a strain on their personal finances in May, up from 50% in April. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found the share of US households reporting a worser financial situation than a year earlier hit a nearly four-year high in May.

Those pressures are reflected in our sustained energy shock forecast scenario, which expects core retail sales (excluding gas and autos) to rise just 3% this year, down from a 3.7% baseline. That translates to roughly $37 billion less in discretionary spending as consumers pull back on categories like apparel, electronics, furniture, and home improvement.

As a result, many retailers are taking a more conservative approach to inventory, even after a strong Q1 for many retailers.

Implications for retailers and marketers: There’s good reason for retailers to err on the side of caution with inventory. As shoppers become more selective about where and when they spend, companies risk being left with excess inventory if demand softens in the back half of the year. That could force greater reliance on promotions and discounting to move goods, putting additional pressure on margins.

For marketers, the environment puts a premium on timing and messaging. Cautious consumers need a clear driver to spend, making it critical for retailers to tie campaigns to key sales events and lead with a compelling value proposition.