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TikTok will see 11.6% global user growth this year, according to our forecast. That’s about double Snapchat’s and Instagram’s expected growth. The ByteDance-owned app will boast more than 900 million monthly users this year—if it manages to stay in the US, its biggest country.

Beyond the chart: So long as it continues operating within the US in much the same fashion, TikTok will pass the 1 billion milestone in global monthly users in 2025, per our estimates, which exclude fake, duplicate, or business accounts by drawing primarily from consumer survey data.

The US will account for more than 110 million of those users. If regulators enact a ban or even a less comprehensive restriction on TikTok, that milestone moment could drift farther away, or not come at all.

More like this:

• TikTok’s fate in the US is on shakier ground than ever, our principal analyst writes
• After CEO testimony, TikTok may be in more trouble than we thought
• Where will TikTok users land after a possible US ban?
• Yesterday’s Chart of the Day: The click factor

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies; the growth trajectory of major social networks; historical trends; internet and mobile adoption trends; and country-specific demographic and socioeconomic factors.