Last October, we projected that Twitter’s 2023 ad revenues would reach $4.74 billion worldwide. Since Elon Musk’s takeover, we’ve cut our projection by nearly $2 billion, to just $2.98 billion, as the app grapples with brand safety issues, confusing policies, and broken technology.

Amazon will increase its share of US ecommerce sales in five product categories next year, per our forecast. The biggest gains will be in health and personal care, furniture and home furnishings, and apparel and accessories.

US spending on identity solutions and services will increase by 13.0% YoY to reach $10.4 billion this year, per the Winterberry Group.

VC funding for creator-focused startups has plummeted in the US, even as these startups multiply. Last year, funding dropped by 51% YoY, while the number of creator-related startups increased by 550%, per The Information. This is part of a greater trend of cooling VC investment.

Nearly half of US millennials are members of a travel loyalty or rewards program, the highest among all generations, according to a Morning Consult survey. The higher their income, the more likely US adults are to belong to such a program—more than three-quarters of those earning $100,000 or more hold a membership.

Nearly three-quarters of US TikTok users will also use Instagram this year, making it the most popular alternative to the social video app, per our forecast. That’s good news for Instagram Reels, which is positioning itself as a viable successor in the event of a US TikTok ban.

When asked about generative AI, 62% of US adults strongly or somewhat agreed that it can save time and resources in the workplace, but there were concerns about the effectiveness and accuracy of its written work, according to Ipsos.

YouTube’s ad business took a hit in the latter half of 2022, with revenues down year over year in both Q3 and Q4. The company has since hired a new CEO, hiked YouTube TV prices, and introduced podcasts to YouTube Music to try to reverse the downward trend.

After a slight dip in 2022, US retail ecommerce sales growth will accelerate each year through 2027, according to our forecast. By that point, ecommerce sales will reach $1.736 trillion and make up one-fifth of total retail sales.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

TikTok will see 11.6% global user growth this year, according to our forecast. That’s about double Snapchat’s and Instagram’s expected growth. The ByteDance-owned app will boast more than 900 million monthly users this year—if it manages to stay in the US, its biggest country.

Most US adults will click through a digital ad that’s relevant to their interests, according to a CivicScience survey. That’s an improvement from March 2021, when 57% of US adults said they were not likely to click through these ads. As of January 2023, that figure dropped to 44%.

Fifty-six percent of marketers in North America said that in-depth analytics drives their data clean room strategies, according to the CMO Council. Other leading drivers included the ability to measure campaign results (54%) and ease of data integration (52%).

As the possibility of a TikTok ban grows in the US, users are looking for other platforms to satisfy their short-video needs. In a Cowen survey, 26% of adult US users said they’d switch to Instagram Reels, and 21% said they’d head to YouTube Shorts. Meanwhile, 37% had no plans to use another short-video app.

The number of Gen Z mobile banking users will reach 33.7 million in the US this year and continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.4% through 2026, per our forecast.

Time spent with TikTok will reach 55.8 minutes per day among US adult users this year, per our latest forecast, about 9 minutes more than expected in last year’s update. In 2024, time spent will increase to 58.4 minutes, up 4.8% year over year. We also expect TikTok’s US user base to cross the 100 million mark this year.

YouTube is the preferred podcast platform among US listeners of this medium, according to Morning Consult. Spotify takes second place, followed by Apple Podcasts and Pandora.

By 2026, US spending on ecommerce channel ads—a large subset of retail media—will be more than triple its 2020 level, per our forecast. Within the ecommerce channel, both search and display advertising are growing rapidly.

5G mobile service revenues will reach $310 billion globally this year, according to Juniper Research. In 2027, that figure will rise more than twofold to $625 billion, as the world upgrades from 3G and 4G.

Amid privacy changes and macroeconomic headwinds, social media will be the channel hurt most by the digital advertising downturn. For 2023, we have reduced our US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion.